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  • Super Bowl Early Line Discussion

    - I suck anyways, but I thought I'd try one of these out lol:

    New Orleans +5
    Indianapolis -5

    o/u 56

    - Initial leans are Indianapolis -5 and under 55.5. Thoughts are that Indy played a fairly difficult schedule, almost going perfect but opted for health and rest. Proving doubters wrong, they are in the big game with a star QB, getting healthier, playing just as well as they did all season (save last two seasons), and just went through the gauntlet of two of the better defenses in the league.

    - Two weeks between these games is the ultimate equalizer if either team is coming in too hot, too cold, or too banged up. So that being said, I feel like the Saints don't seem to be in any rhythm offensively, and just gave Minnesota way too many chances in that game when they should have put them away with all those TOs the Vikings committed. Of course they could just explode in the SB... lol

    - I really think Colts roll in this one. In any given scenario (that we have seen with our own eyes), the Colts could steamroll the Saints, play a tight game and pull away late with a last drive TD or FG that covers the number, or fall behind, and end up coming back and pulling away like they did against the Jets.

    - I like the under because 55 seems a bit high, thinking the books will feel that people will pound the over given the prolific reputations of both defenses?

    - Will be interesting how much the line moves as the weeks come along, already contemplating taking -5 early, as action could push that to 6.5 by Sunday? who knows, my thoughts are useless as I've been wrong numerous times this season lol

    GL! :beerbang:
    :hide:

    "Schooly D is fat cake yo."
    -Big Pimpin-

  • #2
    i would expect early movement tonight and tomorrow and then not much until later in the week next week.

    I agree with you on the colts if it's pick the winner under 7. Manning showed today that he really is the premiere guy in football (some of those passes were just sick into coverage) and IMO (only my opinion now) New Orleans is fortunate to be where they are. If they don't get turnovers on defense that defense goes from good to bad quickly and i don't see manning turning it over honestly.

    Just don't see how you can go against Manning after Sunday.

    but i suck at the NFL anyhow....
    I am the M'bah a'Flyers Fan !

    Comment


    • #3
      I was shocked when I saw the line, I thought it would be Indy -2.5 or -3. Maybe I am in the minority but I think this game is a tossup. I know Indy looked great yesterday but New Orleans was playing a much better team. Indy has not faced a decent offense yet in the playoffs in beating Baltimore and then the Jets. New Orleans will put up some points and make this game interesting IMO.

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      • #4
        I know these stats don't really mean anything but no team that has lost to the Bucs in regular season or lost last three games of the season has won the superbowl. Saints did both of these. I was already leaning to Indy but this makes me like them even more.
        mlb 2018 157-110 +42.74 2018
        nfl 2018 54-79-1 -21.4 units 2018
        mlb 2019 348-245-3 +70.2 units 2019
        nfl 2019 54-54 -21.2 units 2019
        mlb 2020 112-75-1 +33.35 units 2020
        nfl 2020 88-87-3 -8.4 units 2021
        mlb 2020 playoffs 30-17 +30.6 units 2020
        nfl playoffs 2020 11-11-1 +25.4 units 2021
        mlb 2021 271-226 +18.3 units 2021
        mlb 2022 240-239 -62.9 units as of 10-21-2022
        mlb 2023 122-103 -9.7 units 2023
        mlb 2024 15-11 +2.7 units as of 4-13-2024

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        • #5
          looks like the sharps have been hammering this line. It opened at -4 and is now -5.5.

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          • #6
            I saw some 6's out there

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Larry View Post
              I saw some 6's out there

              you can get +19 with TNP's guy...:thumbs:
              I am the M'bah a'Flyers Fan !

              Comment


              • #8
                IMO, the 1 Unit in the entire playoffs that has been underrated is the Indy defense. Are they the 85 bears? No. But quietly they have done really a pretty solid job. They shut the Jets out in the 2nd half yesterday and completely shut down the Jets running game that had been running for big yards in the first 2 games (yes i know greene went down but the other guy was a 1400 yard rusher this year) and outrushed them 109-87 i believe.

                My contention is that NO is a turnover defense, not a good defense. When they don't get turnovers, they are a below average defense. Minnesota rolled over them for almost 450 yards yesterday but coughed it up 2x inside the 10 yard line or that game isn't close. I don't see Indy turning the ball over so I give the defensive edge to Indy, and i have to give the offensive edge to Indy. Clark, Wayne, Garcon, Collie......i'll take those 4 over anyone the Saints have....i'll certainly take Manning over Breese....Reggie Bush is probably better than anything Indy has at that position but he didn't do **** yesterday......so my checklist looks like this.

                QB: edge Inday
                RB: probably edge to NO though Indy ran for 100+ on the Jets which should say something
                WR/TE: edge Indy
                K: probably even
                DEF: edge Indy (assuming no turnovers)

                just not seeing a NO win. But then again yesterday, the only way i felt the Colts would cover is if they got up early on the Jets like 14-3....and they fell behind 17-6 and covered easily...lol.......

                really a crap shoot and you have to pick how you think the game is going to play out and go with it.
                I am the M'bah a'Flyers Fan !

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Big Pimpin
                  saints win
                  :thumbs:
                  Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Big Pimpin
                    saints win
                    I concur.

                    Colts got by 2 of the weaker offenses in the playoffs.

                    Drew Brees will exploit the cover 2.

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                    • #11
                      It just seems too easy to take peyton and the colts after last week...

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                      • #12
                        If Peyton can put up 20 vs the Ravens and 30 vs the Jets, why cant he put up 40 vs the Saints???

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Larry View Post
                          I saw some 6's out there
                          Hey Larry, when you posted this, I new it was BoDog and was right. Might not been the place you seen it. Stif said this a few years back, if you like the dog, BoDog is the best site. They, lately, move up before anybody I've seen. GL Larry
                          If its fun, do it

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by yomonte View Post
                            Hey Larry, when you posted this, I new it was BoDog and was right. Might not been the place you seen it. Stif said this a few years back, if you like the dog, BoDog is the best site. They, lately, move up before anybody I've seen. GL Larry

                            Betus almost always has the highest line from what ive seen the past few years, with Bodog being 2nd.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by FearTheRaven View Post
                              I concur.

                              Colts got by 2 of the weaker offenses in the playoffs.

                              Drew Brees will exploit the cover 2.
                              with very much respect, (just for debate), you can turn that around and say the Colts got by two of the better defenses in the playoffs.

                              The Saints got by a very good Vikings D, but their 2ndary was considered their weakness, something much to my chagrin, the Cowboys couldn't exploit because unlike the Saints game, the Vikings were able to pressure Romo.

                              As for the Saints, I agree with Larry and FF's sentiments in general, no one exactly fears this D (but as long as the Colts respect it), and if they don't get fed TOs, they are middle of the pack IMO.

                              all signs point towards over, which makes me lean under, which means over will hit LOL
                              :hide:

                              "Schooly D is fat cake yo."
                              -Big Pimpin-

                              Comment

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