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Here's a pretty write-up as to why the Saints are the play.
I can't take credit for it, but agree with everything that is said.
Lengthy but a good read, maybe print it out and take it to the ****ter with ya. :laughing:
I am not completely surprised to see where this line sits right now at Indianapolis -5.5. This line takes into account the teams' most recent performances, what the public perceives these performances to mean, and what the average football bettor will say when they see this matchup. Obviously, Indy is the trendy pick. Manning is one of the greatest QBs of all time, the Colts are coming in on a roll, and with percentages indicating that about 65% of the money (sports insights) hitting both Indy on the spread and moneyline, most people seem to think Indy is at least a TD better than the New Orleans Saints on a neutral field. I look at this line, however, in a game where I think the Saints could be favored, or at the least be sold at pick em, and see tons of value in getting all these points.
The first problem with the line of thinking in this game is that there is no way Peyton Manning can lose a big game here. Well, I have seen it first hand and let me tell you, with a playoff record of 9-8 in the NFL, it is possible. The bottom line for me is this: in the 2009 NFL playoffs, Drew Brees has a 116.1 rating with 6 TDs and 0 INTs; Manning 104.6, 5 TD, 1 INT. In the regular season Brees had a passer rating 10 points higher with 5 fewer INTs as well. This is not to say I think Brees is a better QB than Manning, who is easily one of the best ever. But I will say that these numbers show such an even matchup at QB that you need to look at the rest of the field, the coaching, the special teams, and the road these teams took to get here in determining this matchup.. and in my opinion, the Saints have a pretty strong edge in many of these categories.
On the offensive side, it is obvious we are dealing with two great QBs, one with a SB ring and one who is here for the first time. They both have tons of weapons in the passing game at their disposal, and I dont think you will see any big surprises here.. both teams are going to get a lot of yards in the passing game. I have seen a lot made about how these are two dome teams, but anyone who has watched these two teams on the road this season knows that grass doesn't bother them. The Saints put up some of their highest point totals of the year on the road, scoring 48 in Philly, 38 at Tampa, 46 at Miami. The last road game Indy's starters played was a shootout in Jax where they put up close to 40. But looking past the passing game, I see one of my first huge edges for the Saints. I dont think I have ever seen a SB with a rushing discrepancy as big as that between NO and Indy. The Saints had the 6th best rushing offense in the NFL in the regular season, 120 yds a game. The Colts managed an NFL worst. They didnt even bother with it. With many teams the Colts could have faced here outside of the Saints, the raw skills of Manning and their passing offense could have gotten them by. But since they have to face an offense that is just as explosive as them passing the ball, their inability to run the ball in any way will be a problem. I am convinced Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush will make a difference in this game. I don't think Manning's experience alone can make up for this huge differential.
Defensively, I have found some interesting stuff as well. While neither of these defenses were much to write home about during the regular season, they have both stepped up their play here in the playoffs. New Orleans held an explosive Arizona offense to 14 points, and one of the NFL's best and most balanced offenses in the Vikings to 28 points. For a team whose defense has been dogged as much as the Saints, these were two very impressive performances. Most important to me was their pass defense against Minnesota.. they held Favre to a 70.0 rating, 1 TD and 2 INTs. They did have some problems with Peterson, who gave them their 3 other scores.. but as I mentioned above, what part of Indy's rushing game could even hope to give them that kind of balance? When I look at the Saints I dont see a great defense, but one that is much better than it was the last couple seasons. Outside of the Minny game they only gave up 28 points twice all season- on the road in Washington, on the road in Miami.. both wins that many had pegged as monster letdown spots.
Let's look at the Colts defense. It definitely wouldnt be fair to ignore their playoff performance so far. They held the two teams they played to 17 points and 3 points. So did the NFL's 18th ranked defense get better over night? No.. they played the NY Jets and Baltimore Ravens, 2 wild card teams whose offenses were as one-dimensional as it gets (more on that later). Lets make no mistake.. the Colts defense was the real deal through the first 8 games of the season. But then they lost Pro Bowlers Bob Sanders and Marlin Jackson, and now start rookies in their secondary. Since then their secondary has really struggled against teams like New England, Jax, and Houston who threw all over them. Maybe their defense just turned it up like the Saints did come playoff time, but I dont think that is the case. They played two one-dimensional running teams at home, and away from Lucas Oil against an offense like the Saints I dont think you will see as confident a group. When I look back that the AFC championship game and see the Colts' young secondary getting burned on 80 yard playaction plays from a rookie QB and fake option passes from his backup, it worries me what the Saints are going to do.
In short, I dont think either of these two have the elite defenses you would expect out of SB teams. However, given their most recent performances, I put more stock in the Saints right now, and I think having to go through Arizona and Minnesota with the offenses they have compared to the offenses the Jets and Ravens brought to the table against the Colts will show considerably come next Sunday. While statistically neither has proven dominant in stopping the run or the pass, one edge I think it is important to look for is their ability to take the ball away... something the Saints did 5 times against Minnesota, and 13 times more than the Colts did in the regular season. In a game that figures to be a pretty close battle, a turnover could easily make the difference, and the Saints were one of the best at creating them all season long.
I do not think either team has a huge edge in the coaching or special teams department. I guess one of the big questions heading into this game is whether a team can win with a first year head coach. Does Jim Caldwell actually do anything? Does it matter? Probably not.. this is a team that could have been undefeated at this point, and if they had been it would have been in spite of Caldwell, and not because of him. There is no doubt that Sean Payton is a better head coach than Caldwell.. he is an offensive guru. However, you cannot say that the Saints have an edge in the coaching, because the chemistry that Payton and Brees have can only be rivaled by their opponent in this game and the edge the Colts have with Manning and offensive coordinator Tom Moore. Also, I have seen Sean Payton make some boneheaded calls before, like running a wide receiver reverse on 4th and inches.. there is no doubt that sometimes his brash playcalling gets in the way of the making the best decision. So really, I don't think the questionable capabilities of Jim Caldwell will really set the Colts back much in determining the outcome of the game.
On special teams, I think the teams are fairly even as well. In the kicking game, the kickers for both these teams have been the exception to some terrible kicking throughout the post-season. While we have seen team after team miss chip shot FGs these playoffs, both Matt Stover and Garrett Hartley have been perfect. Stover has nailed all 5 of his tries, and Hartley is 2/2 including the clutch game winner in OT against the Vikings. The one edge the Saints will have here is the dynamic Reggie Bush in the return game. Remember.. the Colts gave up a return for a TD on the first play of their last SB to Devin Hester. I think they will really emphasize their coverage units for this game, because unlike the game against the Bears, they really cannot afford to let up a special teams TD against a team that can keep putting up the points like New Orleans. Meanwhile, I really havent been blown away by Simpson or Rushing in the return game for the Colts.
While I have talked about the personnel these teams will send out on the field, I think it is really important to look at the road these teams took to get to where they are. The Colts looked dominant against the Ravens, and despite a sluggish start against the Jets, ultimately pulled away in the second half. Right now, the public for some reason is putting more faith in the Colts because of the way they hammered the Jets at the end of the game, while the Saints had a tougher time putting away the Vikings. Let's be realistic here: Indy was extremely fortunate in that they had to beat two wild card teams to get here. They did not want to face New England, and they DEFINITELY did not want to face San Diego. This is not to take credit away from Baltimore or NY, but if you think that Indy would have beaten San Diego by double digits, you are mistaken. In fact, they would have really struggled against the Vikings, whom the Saints had to beat.. they would have never recovered against Minnesota if they got out to the same kind of start that they did against the Jets. But, because of the way things fell into place, Indy only had to get by a second year QB playing on the road with Joe Flacco, and then a rookie QB playing on the road with Mark Sanchez.
Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints had stiffer competition, to say the least. Brees not only outclassed Kurt Warner, a SB winning QB who was there just one season ago, he embarrassed him. And after that, he had to go up against another SB winner and first ballot HOF to get to this game. When I hear about how Indy has had a more impressive postseason than New Orleans, I think that is a joke. They played two teams who needed a lot of luck just to get into their wild card spots to begin with.. New Orleans played two division winners with first ballot HOF QBs who were among the best teams in the NFL all season long.
Now, one of the biggest reasons I love the Saints with the points in Super Bowl XL IV. Looking at each team's body of work before their first loss (all losses came AFTER clinching homefield), not only did the Saints not lose by more than 5 points, they didn't lose at all. Now, the Colts didnt lose either. However, they had a total of SEVEN of these wins come by less than 5 points. And we arent talking about teams the caliber of New Orleans.. we are talking about Jacksonville.. Houston.. San Francisco.. Miami.
So is there a scenario where Manning has a game of the lifetime, throws for 5 TDs, and the Colts win big? Of course there is. But I believe if this game were played many times, the much more likely scenario is a much closer game and, if you have read what I think of this matchup, a game where the team with the more balanced offense and the defense capable of forcing more turnovers comes out on top. Getting 5.5 points is unbelievable here, in a game where I liked the Saints at a pick'em. If the Colts score even 10 more points than I am projecting them too, the Saints still cover.. and you are protected against Manning having the ball on the last drive of the game to get into FG range, should it come to that.
I can't take credit for it, but agree with everything that is said.
Lengthy but a good read, maybe print it out and take it to the ****ter with ya. :laughing:
I am not completely surprised to see where this line sits right now at Indianapolis -5.5. This line takes into account the teams' most recent performances, what the public perceives these performances to mean, and what the average football bettor will say when they see this matchup. Obviously, Indy is the trendy pick. Manning is one of the greatest QBs of all time, the Colts are coming in on a roll, and with percentages indicating that about 65% of the money (sports insights) hitting both Indy on the spread and moneyline, most people seem to think Indy is at least a TD better than the New Orleans Saints on a neutral field. I look at this line, however, in a game where I think the Saints could be favored, or at the least be sold at pick em, and see tons of value in getting all these points.
The first problem with the line of thinking in this game is that there is no way Peyton Manning can lose a big game here. Well, I have seen it first hand and let me tell you, with a playoff record of 9-8 in the NFL, it is possible. The bottom line for me is this: in the 2009 NFL playoffs, Drew Brees has a 116.1 rating with 6 TDs and 0 INTs; Manning 104.6, 5 TD, 1 INT. In the regular season Brees had a passer rating 10 points higher with 5 fewer INTs as well. This is not to say I think Brees is a better QB than Manning, who is easily one of the best ever. But I will say that these numbers show such an even matchup at QB that you need to look at the rest of the field, the coaching, the special teams, and the road these teams took to get here in determining this matchup.. and in my opinion, the Saints have a pretty strong edge in many of these categories.
On the offensive side, it is obvious we are dealing with two great QBs, one with a SB ring and one who is here for the first time. They both have tons of weapons in the passing game at their disposal, and I dont think you will see any big surprises here.. both teams are going to get a lot of yards in the passing game. I have seen a lot made about how these are two dome teams, but anyone who has watched these two teams on the road this season knows that grass doesn't bother them. The Saints put up some of their highest point totals of the year on the road, scoring 48 in Philly, 38 at Tampa, 46 at Miami. The last road game Indy's starters played was a shootout in Jax where they put up close to 40. But looking past the passing game, I see one of my first huge edges for the Saints. I dont think I have ever seen a SB with a rushing discrepancy as big as that between NO and Indy. The Saints had the 6th best rushing offense in the NFL in the regular season, 120 yds a game. The Colts managed an NFL worst. They didnt even bother with it. With many teams the Colts could have faced here outside of the Saints, the raw skills of Manning and their passing offense could have gotten them by. But since they have to face an offense that is just as explosive as them passing the ball, their inability to run the ball in any way will be a problem. I am convinced Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush will make a difference in this game. I don't think Manning's experience alone can make up for this huge differential.
Defensively, I have found some interesting stuff as well. While neither of these defenses were much to write home about during the regular season, they have both stepped up their play here in the playoffs. New Orleans held an explosive Arizona offense to 14 points, and one of the NFL's best and most balanced offenses in the Vikings to 28 points. For a team whose defense has been dogged as much as the Saints, these were two very impressive performances. Most important to me was their pass defense against Minnesota.. they held Favre to a 70.0 rating, 1 TD and 2 INTs. They did have some problems with Peterson, who gave them their 3 other scores.. but as I mentioned above, what part of Indy's rushing game could even hope to give them that kind of balance? When I look at the Saints I dont see a great defense, but one that is much better than it was the last couple seasons. Outside of the Minny game they only gave up 28 points twice all season- on the road in Washington, on the road in Miami.. both wins that many had pegged as monster letdown spots.
Let's look at the Colts defense. It definitely wouldnt be fair to ignore their playoff performance so far. They held the two teams they played to 17 points and 3 points. So did the NFL's 18th ranked defense get better over night? No.. they played the NY Jets and Baltimore Ravens, 2 wild card teams whose offenses were as one-dimensional as it gets (more on that later). Lets make no mistake.. the Colts defense was the real deal through the first 8 games of the season. But then they lost Pro Bowlers Bob Sanders and Marlin Jackson, and now start rookies in their secondary. Since then their secondary has really struggled against teams like New England, Jax, and Houston who threw all over them. Maybe their defense just turned it up like the Saints did come playoff time, but I dont think that is the case. They played two one-dimensional running teams at home, and away from Lucas Oil against an offense like the Saints I dont think you will see as confident a group. When I look back that the AFC championship game and see the Colts' young secondary getting burned on 80 yard playaction plays from a rookie QB and fake option passes from his backup, it worries me what the Saints are going to do.
In short, I dont think either of these two have the elite defenses you would expect out of SB teams. However, given their most recent performances, I put more stock in the Saints right now, and I think having to go through Arizona and Minnesota with the offenses they have compared to the offenses the Jets and Ravens brought to the table against the Colts will show considerably come next Sunday. While statistically neither has proven dominant in stopping the run or the pass, one edge I think it is important to look for is their ability to take the ball away... something the Saints did 5 times against Minnesota, and 13 times more than the Colts did in the regular season. In a game that figures to be a pretty close battle, a turnover could easily make the difference, and the Saints were one of the best at creating them all season long.
I do not think either team has a huge edge in the coaching or special teams department. I guess one of the big questions heading into this game is whether a team can win with a first year head coach. Does Jim Caldwell actually do anything? Does it matter? Probably not.. this is a team that could have been undefeated at this point, and if they had been it would have been in spite of Caldwell, and not because of him. There is no doubt that Sean Payton is a better head coach than Caldwell.. he is an offensive guru. However, you cannot say that the Saints have an edge in the coaching, because the chemistry that Payton and Brees have can only be rivaled by their opponent in this game and the edge the Colts have with Manning and offensive coordinator Tom Moore. Also, I have seen Sean Payton make some boneheaded calls before, like running a wide receiver reverse on 4th and inches.. there is no doubt that sometimes his brash playcalling gets in the way of the making the best decision. So really, I don't think the questionable capabilities of Jim Caldwell will really set the Colts back much in determining the outcome of the game.
On special teams, I think the teams are fairly even as well. In the kicking game, the kickers for both these teams have been the exception to some terrible kicking throughout the post-season. While we have seen team after team miss chip shot FGs these playoffs, both Matt Stover and Garrett Hartley have been perfect. Stover has nailed all 5 of his tries, and Hartley is 2/2 including the clutch game winner in OT against the Vikings. The one edge the Saints will have here is the dynamic Reggie Bush in the return game. Remember.. the Colts gave up a return for a TD on the first play of their last SB to Devin Hester. I think they will really emphasize their coverage units for this game, because unlike the game against the Bears, they really cannot afford to let up a special teams TD against a team that can keep putting up the points like New Orleans. Meanwhile, I really havent been blown away by Simpson or Rushing in the return game for the Colts.
While I have talked about the personnel these teams will send out on the field, I think it is really important to look at the road these teams took to get to where they are. The Colts looked dominant against the Ravens, and despite a sluggish start against the Jets, ultimately pulled away in the second half. Right now, the public for some reason is putting more faith in the Colts because of the way they hammered the Jets at the end of the game, while the Saints had a tougher time putting away the Vikings. Let's be realistic here: Indy was extremely fortunate in that they had to beat two wild card teams to get here. They did not want to face New England, and they DEFINITELY did not want to face San Diego. This is not to take credit away from Baltimore or NY, but if you think that Indy would have beaten San Diego by double digits, you are mistaken. In fact, they would have really struggled against the Vikings, whom the Saints had to beat.. they would have never recovered against Minnesota if they got out to the same kind of start that they did against the Jets. But, because of the way things fell into place, Indy only had to get by a second year QB playing on the road with Joe Flacco, and then a rookie QB playing on the road with Mark Sanchez.
Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints had stiffer competition, to say the least. Brees not only outclassed Kurt Warner, a SB winning QB who was there just one season ago, he embarrassed him. And after that, he had to go up against another SB winner and first ballot HOF to get to this game. When I hear about how Indy has had a more impressive postseason than New Orleans, I think that is a joke. They played two teams who needed a lot of luck just to get into their wild card spots to begin with.. New Orleans played two division winners with first ballot HOF QBs who were among the best teams in the NFL all season long.
Now, one of the biggest reasons I love the Saints with the points in Super Bowl XL IV. Looking at each team's body of work before their first loss (all losses came AFTER clinching homefield), not only did the Saints not lose by more than 5 points, they didn't lose at all. Now, the Colts didnt lose either. However, they had a total of SEVEN of these wins come by less than 5 points. And we arent talking about teams the caliber of New Orleans.. we are talking about Jacksonville.. Houston.. San Francisco.. Miami.
So is there a scenario where Manning has a game of the lifetime, throws for 5 TDs, and the Colts win big? Of course there is. But I believe if this game were played many times, the much more likely scenario is a much closer game and, if you have read what I think of this matchup, a game where the team with the more balanced offense and the defense capable of forcing more turnovers comes out on top. Getting 5.5 points is unbelievable here, in a game where I liked the Saints at a pick'em. If the Colts score even 10 more points than I am projecting them too, the Saints still cover.. and you are protected against Manning having the ball on the last drive of the game to get into FG range, should it come to that.
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