***NFL Week 3 Discussion***

[DukiesBaby]

Only problem is Josh Freeman in his first time against that defense. They've already stopped a good offense in Atlanta and really caused a ton of problems for Tennessee. I don't know that they can move the ball. I think the under is safer there with both teams not likely to get in the end zone on offense.

100% agree with this! :thumbs:

[Billy The Kid]

Seahawks +5.5 looks like a solid play to me. San Diego a terrible team in September playing in one of the loudest/toughest places to play in the nfl against a Seattle team that only wins at home. Hawks have been great at stopping the run although secondary got tourched by schmOrton last week, so pRiv should have some solid numbers. Mathews most likely limited as well. I think Seattle must control the clock this week and imo they have the backs to do it. Forsett avg. 5.8 per carry...possible small play on Sea ML also

Patriots 1H TT will be on my card as well. Think they come out quick against the bills and then dissapear in the 2H like normal


any thoughts on Cowboys/Texans....Boys start 0-3? In sort a must win. They have the bye next week then Tenn, Minn, Giants so the schedule doesn't get much easier

[Underdog88]

Only problem is Josh Freeman in his first time against that defense. They've already stopped a good offense in Atlanta and really caused a ton of problems for Tennessee. I don't know that they can move the ball. I think the under is safer there with both teams not likely to get in the end zone on offense.

The Atlanta game was the home opener in their house, and the Titans are one dimensional, just a bad matchup for Pitt run game. Not to take anything away from Pitt D (they look great), just think that Freeman may be coming in a bit undervalued as a qb. This is one of those super low totals that I am so tempted to play over on.... 32 pts anything can happen between short fields, special teams, big plays...

[Underdog88]

Seahawks +5.5 looks like a solid play to me. San Diego a terrible team in September playing in one of the loudest/toughest places to play in the nfl against a Seattle team that only wins at home. Hawks have been great at stopping the run although secondary got tourched by schmOrton last week, so pRiv should have some solid numbers. Mathews most likely limited as well. I think Seattle must control the clock this week and imo they have the backs to do it. Forsett avg. 5.8 per carry...possible small play on Sea ML also

Patriots 1H TT will be on my card as well. Think they come out quick against the bills and then dissapear in the 2H like normal


any thoughts on Cowboys/Texans....Boys start 0-3? In sort a must win. They have the bye next week then Tenn, Minn, Giants so the schedule doesn't get much easier

Like the Hawks as well, will be on them and the Cowboys. Could be a big Texans letdown coming off the road win. I wouldn't say must win but it's a rather large game.

If the Patriots are really pissed enough they will hang 30+ on the Bills. I still think they have a bad defense and could let up points garbage time. I lean over and couldn't handle playing the Bills to cover

[NittanyLions94]

The Atlanta game was the home opener in their house, and the Titans are one dimensional, just a bad matchup for Pitt run game. Not to take anything away from Pitt D (they look great), just think that Freeman may be coming in a bit undervalued as a qb. This is one of those super low totals that I am so tempted to play over on.... 32 pts anything can happen between short fields, special teams, big plays...

I don't know. It's for sure the best D in the NFL, and Dick Lebeau runs a system unlike any other in the NFL. Freeman in his first time vs. a D that he won't be able to hand off against? Tough to back a team that isn't all that likely to get in the endzone.

[Underdog88]

thinking more about the Pitt/TB game....


From a situational standpoint, a team that was 3-5 on the road last season is laying points on their second consecutive road game. They won the first road game as dogs and are now favored in a spot they haven't excelled in. They have won both in b2b road games once in 4 years. I liked them last week, but IMO this is a bad spot, without a good starting qb vs a good D who plays well at home. I think TB wins this game. After more thinking about the total, I can't possibly play the over. IMO a defensive td is the difference between a win and a loss on the total.



I want to look into the weather report for the Miami/Jets game. I think Miami has the edge at home there.

[NittanyLions94]

thinking more about the Pitt/TB game....


From a situational standpoint, a team that was 3-5 on the road last season is laying points on their second consecutive road game. They won the first road game as dogs and are now favored in a spot they haven't excelled in. They have won both in b2b road games once in 4 years. I liked them last week, but IMO this is a bad spot, without a good starting qb vs a good D who plays well at home. I think TB wins this game. After more thinking about the total, I can't possibly play the over. IMO a defensive td is the difference between a win and a loss on the total.



I want to look into the weather report for the Miami/Jets game. I think Miami has the edge at home there.

A lot of those road losses last year were without Polamalu and Smith on D. Saw a graphic last night that PIT is 15-2 in their last 17 with Troy playing a full game. Like I said above, not sure Freeman figures Lebeau out this early in his career.

Liking Miami too.

Any thoughts on the Ravens? I think they break out today in a big way and Cleveland is another team that I can't picture finding the end zone.

[Underdog88]

Any thoughts on the Ravens? I think they break out today in a big way and Cleveland is another team that I can't picture finding the end zone.

Just hit submit on the team total over. Shaun Rogers ruled out of the game which is great news for the Ravens run game. I think they are good ats as well, I can't envision them not getting in the endzone 3+ today. DQ Jackson out for year for Browns, thought he was going to be back in a couple weeks? Browns D never catches a break.

[NittanyLions94]

Just hit submit on the team total over. Shaun Rogers ruled out of the game which is great news for the Ravens run game. I think they are good ats as well, I can't envision them not getting in the endzone 3+ today. DQ Jackson out for year for Browns, thought he was going to be back in a couple weeks? Browns D never catches a break.

Same thoughts, I think Flacco gets back on track at home against a pretty porous D overall. Heavy dose of Rice/McGahee and some play action to the wideouts.

Thinking of being Joe Public all day and taking the Colts at 4:00 too. I trust myself more than I trust trying to decifer some kind of public money vs. line movement trend that may or may not exist. Moreno out for this game, so it would have to be Buckhalter and some Maroney to run all over the Colts. Peyton Manning is a road warrior, but at 5.5 it may be a little more than I'm willing to play. Maybe put them in a 6 point teaser with someone? I really think they win the game.

Falcons catching 4 at New Orleans also interests me. Atlanta has the 2 pronged running attack to try to wear down the NO defense like SF did. New Orleans' O hasn't been the same this year without Mike Bell to help out on the ground, and now no Reggie Bush either. Sharper still out in the secondary is glaring IMO, Vernon Davis showed a little of that last week and now a vet like Tony Gonzalez knows how to work the middle of the field still even if he won't get behind the defense. NO hasn't blown anyone out in either win, and hasn't looked particularly impressive to me. Short week, division opponent that will certainly be primed for this one.

[Underdog88]

A ton of people on the Falcons today as an upset. The Saints at home-3.5.... there is a line I didn't expect to see all season long, and it comes in week 3 vs the Falcons? The Saints lost two games at home last season and won every other home game by 8+, and are coming off a close one so I can see the letdown angle... kind of.

I fail to see the Falcons winning this game su, so I can't play them. Arizona gift wrapped the game last week. 3 interceptions, 10 flags for 109 yds, 0-9 3rd down conversion rate. and a non existent run defense. I don't see the Saints offense doing the same, and I think the Falcons pass D is untested and suspect. They were 3-5 on the road last season, beating TB, SF, & NYJ. They lost by 4+ in all 5 road losses. Leaning Saints and over, Bush will be missed but Pierre Thomas is a much better running back. Falcons should be able to run the ball, I think both can get into the mid 20's.

[Underdog88]

This discussion thread is missing Stifler's Mom's imput:help:

[hodown]

What's not to like about the Ravens? Coming off two games against tough defenses and everyone is down on their offense.

Washington is up to 5 now, as much as I hate laying on bad teams, I'm considering an exception here. Saints are down to -3 at my book, only laying the home field points.

[NittanyLions94]

What's not to like about the Ravens? Coming off two games against tough defenses and everyone is down on their offense.

Washington is up to 5 now, as much as I hate laying on bad teams, I'm considering an exception here. Saints are down to -3 at my book, only laying the home field points.

I just think this Saints team isn't the same one as last year. Pierre Thomas can't carry the load by himself on the ground, and not having Sharper in the secondary really hurts them. Just because I like Atlanta, this thing should be about 34-7 Saints :laughing:

[Stifler's Mom]

My takes:

I think the 'Aints line looks very suspect. Is it only because of the absence of Bush that it isn't -10.5 like it was last year when these two teams met at NO? Probably not. Saints haven't looked good in either game so far either, imho. The Viqueens are all out of sync and they could barely handle them in their home opener after their super bowl win, and SF couldn't have played any worse and still almost beat NO one last week. Maybe today's the day they get it moving??

Trend to play on a backup QB making his first start plays are: CAR (Claussen), PIT (Batch) and BUF (Fitzgerald). Scary plays, as who wants to back Buffalo @ NE? Pittsburgh is very public today, despite having an offense who has done nothing (although imo having Batch start opens up the pass offense tremendously compared to Dixon), and Carolina just got done getting lashed by TB at home, so who really wants to back them now against a CIN team perceived to be good (although they never will be imo until showboater and one of the worst wideouts in the NFL OchoZero is gone), and now a QB making his first start?

Teams lucky as $hit to be 2-0 and are now getting way too much respect IMHO:

Miami - Beating Buffalo and a badly out of sync Viqueens leaves them 2-0, but imo not a very impressive one....but that gives live value here. People continue to call the Jets over rated, but the #1 rush offense from last year, #1 defense, and another year for Sanchez look strong on paper....Revis or not, and I think the Jets D is too much for happy feet Henne tonight and the Jets probably take that one. Cromartie actually stepped up in the 2H in Revis' absence last week after looking like one of the worst pick ups of the entire offseason for the first game and a half.

KC - A couple kick returns for scores vs SD and a game against a bumbling Browns squad last week leave KC at 2-0. I think they wake up this week against a determined SF team who finally seemed to put it together last week after falling behind early.

Situational play on Dallas? Houston might get caught sleeping here, and 0-3 is all but playoff elimination. Dallas cannot afford to lose so might be a good shot to take them as a dog.

Agree on the Tennessee/NYG over.

Eagles shouldn't be road faves @ Jax imo, and neither should Washington. Both teams are overrated and should lose outright today.

Indy blows Denver off the field. Line says it all there as +5.5/+6 seems to be really stretching it asking for Denver money from late public faders, but use pick the winner, and take Indy. Missing C Jeff Saturday made the Indy offense look inept in week 1, but they returned last week and I expect them to keep it going here.

Buffalo/NE over looks enticing. Buffalo has to get the offense going sometime, and NE will be looking to pile it on off a double digit loss. Odds makers have the projected score there at about 28-14 NE (NE -14 to -15 and total at 43). I think NE can score 4 TD's on BUF, and I think BUF can get more than the 14 they're projecting. That game to me has both teams getting into the 20's, so over 43 seems to be the play.

[Underdog88]

Thanks Stif, I agree with almost everything you said. Played on the Saints as IMO they are undervalued here at home vs a bad road team. Falcons at home with revenge later this year though....