***UDoggie's Week 1 Discussion/Plays***

[Underdog88]

Last year we had this thread weekly discussing the games/lines. The results were great, hopefully the same goes for this year. As always I invite anyone to post their thoughts, as it's good to look at the games from different perspectives...

Finished preseason 16-17 +7.57 units, thanks to the dog moneylines. I'm setting a personal goal of 54% for the regular season. One play before I delve deeper into the games.....



Colts/Saints u52.5-110 Winner

Eagles-3-110

3 units each


Colts-5-5
Jaguars-6.5
Giants+210

2 to win 18.86


Giants+6-105

Falcons+150

Fins/Skins o17 1sth

Steelers-3-105 1sth

Panthers/Rams u43-105

Patriots/Jets u41.5-105

2 units each


Colts/Saints o24-120 2ndh Winner

1 unit




2 high powered offenses & 2 questionable defenses, but I think this line is set too high. Everyone is expecting a shoot-out. I don't even have to look at the numbers to know the public will love that over. Hell, I told my fiancee who was playing & she said "it should be a shootout". She doesn't even watch football! Last year these 2 teams played 40 games combined. How many do you think totalled over 52 pts? Twelve! Ten in the regular season. I think the gameplan for both teams will favor the under. I expect both teams to run the ball in attempts to keep each other's offenses off the field. The Colts pass D continued to improve as the season went on last year, & Sanders really can't be credited enough for that. I don't think the loss of Doss is as big a deal as some are making it. The big question is can the Colts stop the run?

Last season the Colts allowed 5.3 ypc in the regular season. Opponents were graced with short 3rd down yardage, resulting in a 90-191 3rd down conversion rate. In the playoffs, they allowed 4.1 ypc. Opponents in the playoffs had an 11-46 3rd down %. Although that's still not a great ypc against, it makes a big difference. Last year the Colts were much more balanced offensively, & I look for that to continue. I think Addai is capable of carrying the load, so the Colts don't have to rely on the pass as much.....


Next up dogs.....

[yukoncornelius]

Doggie - The under does make sense... we'll see how it actually happens on Thursday. Helluva tough opener for the Colts.

[Daws1089]

Udoggie,

I agree that losing Doss does not hurt much. I'm hearing a lot of "oh the colts lost so many guys on defense, the Corners, the Safety, LB, and Corey Simon, they will be a bad defense"

Well, its actually a good thing those guys are gone because they sucked! Their replacements atleast have a chance to be better than their originals, and at the least be just as bad, but i don't think they will be worse. McFarland on the DL is out, but it doesn't really worry me. I think the under is a good way to go.

Some dogs im looking at are Buffalo and Chicago.

[fitter]

Agree...public will be on over IMO. If for no other reason than this is the opener, and that's what they want. Not sure how or if I'll play the total, but as of right now, agree with your assessment. Have a feeling that both teams will want to highlight the run to start, but will adjust as need be, or how their respective opponent plays out. Number does seem high though. BOL :glass:

[yomonte]

With U on the under. I got it early and lost in the shuffle at 50 1/2

[Horfin]

Ud,

I always respect your opinions and enjoy your read, but I RESPECTFULLY disagree (and this is a "discussion thread") with you and daws about the effect of the losses/changes on D. Think of it this way: You have 11 starters and 5 are gone. Replaced by some that were there a year ago and replaced by some Rookies and replaced by some transfers. If you had a restraunt and you replaced 5/11ths of your staff...there will be problems at the lunch rush (bigger ones in the begnining ). As everyone gets to know the tendencies and talents of the others the staff will slowly gel. Same thing happens here. There will be BLOWN assignments, mistakes where one guy doesn't have another's back. Overall they may improve and become better, but in the begining there will be problems. This really isn't the game to test this out. I mean it would be better to open this defense against Cleveland, but not against the No. 1 offense of last year.


Horfin

[Underdog88]

Thanks guys... GL to you all :thumbs:

Some dogs im looking at are Buffalo and Chicago.

First off glad to see you on the board as you were a weekly contributer in these discussion threads. Buffalo seems to be gettting attention as a home dog. As a Bills fan, I would love to see them win, but I have some questions as to how they will perform come Sunday. First off, we have a pretty inexperienced defense as a whole. I'm worried about our overall depth on D. Schobel is a great DE, & Kelsay should be fine, but with Denney out (broken foot), & Hargrove suspended, we're thin on the line. I am pretty high on Posluszny, although I suspect it will be a challenge for a rookie to assume the playcalling. Coy Wire has looked pretty good in the preseason (making the switch to LB) & I saw some good things in preseason from him. He likes to hit, & I think he'll be effective when blitzing. However, I do think he could be a liability vs the run, in part because of his size. Ellison was expected to start & is now out of comission. Crowell IMO has underachieved, but could be solid. Once again depth scares me, as there isn't a vet (outside of Crowell) that has even started a game in the NFL. As for the secondary, I think McGee will be solid, & I'm hoping Youboty will impress this year. Ko & Donte played all year together, so I would expect some cohesiveness in the safety dept.

Offensively, I still have worries on the O-line, moreso on the right side. Butler has been named the starting rg, despite only playing in 2 games last season. Langston Walker really hasn't impressed me much either, so the right side scares me. The left doesn't- Peters & Dockery should be fine there... Lynch really hasn't done a thing in the preseason, but then again he really didn't get that many touches. I think he could be effective in the open field, but heven't seen him do much to create room running between the tackles. WR (outside of Lee Evans) are mediocre. Parrish is a potential threat, but Peerless & Josh Reed are inconsistent. I really haven't seen enough progress out of these guys to think they can get open for JP.

One thing I do like is that Cutler really hasn't has that much experience on the road. He started 5 games last year, 2 on the road vs. SD & Zona. He went 1-1.... I wonder how he will perform on the road in the opener, especially with the loss of Rod Smith. Also Denver has lost the last 2 openers on the road. I know as I played against them both times on the ml. Overall my concern is that the Denver o-line will wear out the depth lacking Bills D....


Here's all the home dogs...


Bills+3.5 vs. Denver

Browns+4.5 vs Steelers

Packers+3 vs Eagles

Jets+7 vs Patriots



Honestly I'm not a huge fan of these home dogs. I actually lean Eagles & Steelers, but I think I like the Jets. They beat NE away last year pretty convincingly, & lost by 7 to them @ home. Everyone loves the Pats, but the secondary isn't all that impressive to me. Too many pts for divisional rivals, IMO.....



Dogs that have my attention


Falcons+2.5/+135 @ Minny

Dolphins +2.5/+140 @ Wash

NYG+6/+215 @ Dallas

Ravens+2.5/+125 @ Cincy

[Underdog88]

Ud,

I always respect your opinions and enjoy your read, but I RESPECTFULLY disagree (and this is a "discussion thread") with you and daws about the effect of the losses/changes on D. Think of it this way: You have 11 starters and 5 are gone. Replaced by some that were there a year ago and replaced by some Rookies and replaced by some transfers. If you had a restraunt and you replaced 5/11ths of your staff...there will be problems at the lunch rush (bigger ones in the begnining ). As everyone gets to know the tendencies and talents of the others the staff will slowly gel. Same thing happens here. There will be BLOWN assignments, mistakes where one guy doesn't have another's back. Overall they may improve and become better, but in the begining there will be problems. This really isn't the game to test this out. I mean it would be better to open this defense against Cleveland, but not against the No. 1 offense of last year.


Horfin

Good points Horfy, I read your writeup on the game & agree with most of it. I'm having a tough time with regards to the side on this game. I think +220 is big value with the Saints, but as always it'll be tough to beat the Colts at home...

I am in no way saying the Colts D will be great, but I do think they can continue building on their D. True it would be better to open this defense against the Browns, but then we wouldn't have such a high total. You predicted 28-24 Saints, which would be fine with me :gulp:

[Q-Unit]

bills and browns jump out at me. think bills will surprise and browns not as bad as people think.

leaning towards the under on opening night. I think one team will score consistently whilst one will sputter. this should favor the under.

[TheBeholdah]

u lookin at the rams-panthers game at all udog? i like the rams at home on the turf, people get hardons lookin at the patriots receivers but look at the rams, bruce holt bennett and mcmichael at TE, with a solid oline and steven jackson pounding it. also never a bad move to have your money against delhomme on the road. i'm lookin at the eagles also. interesting stat you found tho on how colts and saint games rarely ever go over 52, seems like good value :beerbang:

[hodown]

nice writeup udawg. public currently 57% on the over, id actually think itd be higher than that but its not. i think last year there was a positive trend on the under in games where the o/u started at 49 or higher. i cant find the exact numbers on that but i may have it written down somewhere.

regarding homedawgs, there are 4 this wk. last year on sundays, hd's covered 63% of the time. the first 2 weeks of the season they went 5-4, then the books prob have a better idea of how good the teams really are and are able to set a more accurate line. through weeks 3-17 they covered just over 64% of the time. not a bad % eh?

the more the public pounds an away fave, the better the percentages get for the dawgs. when the pub pounds the away fave at a 60% clip or higher, they were 4-4 through weeks 1 and 2. weeks 3-17 had the homedawgs covering 70% of the time. overall percentage at 66%. i just started capping these numbers last year so not really sure how well the percentages hold up, but they look very positive.

based on last years numbers, id prob think the dawgs go 2-2, so its just a matter of picking which ones.

gb +3 (15%) immediately i look at this game and think no way, but when you glance at gbs defense it isnt that bad at all, especially the back 7. mcnabb hasnt played a meaningful reg season game in a long time so im not quite sure what to expect from him, even though he usually looks good. not to mention favre has burned me one too many times with a late turnover.

cle +4.5 (41%) like the fact that cle has a respectable def and getting more than 4 pts, but its really going to depend on what pitt teams shows up. if big ben does his grossman immitation which hes known to do, cle is in this game.

nyj +6.5 (38%) jets usually play ne tough, and they are nearly getting a td. being a division rival and mangini a former pats coach has a lot to do with this. no harrison should help the jets in this one as well.

buf +3 (38%) dont know much about the bills so prob leave that up to you. lynch didnt do much in the preseason, but, it is the preseason. what i know about denver is that they always seem to win the ones you think theyll lose, and lose the ones you think theyll win. to me, this seems like one they should win.

[NittanyLions94]

GB is the home dog that I really like. Not really adding much to the discussion, but the Jets are probably my #2 if I was going to take one.

[Underdog88]

u lookin at the rams-panthers game at all udog? i like the rams at home on the turf, people get hardons lookin at the patriots receivers but look at the rams, bruce holt bennett and mcmichael at TE, with a solid oline and steven jackson pounding it. also never a bad move to have your money against delhomme on the road.

I'm leaning Rams as well. Last year Carolina dominated vs the Rams @ home 15-0 (the panthers rushed for well over 200 yards, & outgained the Rams 411-111 total yards), so there is a bit of a revenge angle working here. It was a beatdown, but Steven Jackson only carried the ball 7x! Delhomme now on the road ( and I would suspect on a short leash) with a team that I think could be on the decline. No doubt Bulger has an arsenal, plus Jackson is gonna be huge this year. O-lineman Steussie is on ir, so there is a bit of a question mark surrounding the line. I also have my reservations about the Rams defense. I would expect them to load up on the run & make Delhomme beat them with his arm. I'm not sold on the Rams as a serious contender in the NFC because of their questionable D, but I do think they win this game... it's quite possible it ends up becoming a play for me.


Q- I sure hope the Bills surprise everyone! I'll be sitting in my chair with my Thurmanator jersey on (contemplating ghetting Posluszny's jersey). Do you think the Giants are live vs your Boys? Honestly I think that is one juicy moneyline for a divisional game...+220?


Hodown- Thanks for the post! It always seems to me that the homedogs start slow then pick up as the season goes on. That GB game really looks trappy right from the get- go. No doubt the public will be on the Eagles, but still sometimes they win. I do think the Packers D is better than advertised, but with a declining line/Favre & seemingly no emergence of a strong backfield, I'd worry more about their offense vs. the Philly D. McNabb should be ok, & Westbrook will be in the top 4 in all-purpose yds if he stays healthy, IMO. Just looking at the total right now & @ 42.5, the under may be worth investigating. I would have a tough time pulling the trigger on the Browns, I just have to see how that O-line holds up before I put my $$$ on them. Something tells me that Pitt will be right back in the thick of things this season... Last time Willie parker faced the Browns, he ran for over 220 yds. Granted, that was in Pitt (Clev lost by 4 @ home last year), but I could see that happening again.


Nitt- any reason why the Packers would be your first choice? I like the Jets too, but you definitely have to pick your spots fading a team as good as NE. I did well last year I remember getting 14 vs the Lions & Detroit threw all over them. I think the Pats secondary can be exploited.

[Q-Unit]

Q- I sure hope the Bills surprise everyone! I'll be sitting in my chair with my Thurmanator jersey on (contemplating ghetting Posluszny's jersey). Do you think the Giants are live vs your Boys? Honestly I think that is one juicy moneyline for a divisional game...+220?

man I hate to agree with you. I love my boys, but Phillips is no one special until he proves otherwise. D yes, and yes handing over the O to some young up and comers (garrett) is nice, but his OVERALL head coaching pedigree? much to be lacking.

IMO parcells was the best thing to happen to the Cowboys since Jimmy Johnson. everyone hounds parcells for being a "disciplinarian", but everyone forgets how much of a hardass Johnson was on all two Super Bowl teams and before leading up to that.

anyone will agree he left them better than he found them (if they care! LOL)

The Cowboys are like the Yankees, and the Lakers, they have the history, the rings and the pedigree to back up the arrogance and the love-hate relationship that ensues, but to get there I believe you need some sort of order. the way they have Phillips played out, its mardi gras over in big D. and that is verrry dangerous.

sure Parcells played a base 3-4 D, and was very conservative... on the D side, I think its prudent to not be so aggressive and blitz so much when your 2ndary is suspect at best, and when your O led by a first year starter starts to stutter down the stretch, you cant exactly change your stripes midseason can you.

solid D, and good run produces wins, but even with "two" good RBs, I've turned on J.Jones, especially after he whined about Parcells, the man who drafted him, and brought him to this team. and now he's in a contract year, maybe I'm wrong, but I think Barber is the better player, and should be, and probably will be getting most of the carries soon.

proof is in the money. they have made no effort to resign jones, he is a speedster, but fragile, last year was his first year playing the whole year healthy somewhat, but his YPC is only avg, and skewed by those few long yardage runs. though he is a home run threat, that comes maybe %5 chance everytime he touches the ball..compare that to Barber scoring loads of TDs last year, better blocking, pass-catching ability, and bruising rushes....IMO I'd take the latter any day.

too late, but I say the biggest mistake was letting Payton go, not to mention not letting him have more free reign to run the Offense, they should have (were plannning) on grooming him to take over the Boys when Parcells left, cuz everyone knows he wasnt staying 5 years.

LOL sorry for the longass writeup, but thats my two cents. the Giants have their own problems and since I dont care about ELI and TIKI's soap opera, I say a shot at the ML is solid, but I have no lean on this game LOL.

[NittanyLions94]

GB at home against an Eagles team that I just don't feel is very good at all. Donovan McNabb(in my eyes) is not back to 100% and half of that team still feels Jeff Garcia was the better option anyway. The Eagles WRs do nothing for me. Reggie Brown? Kevin Curtis? I'll pass on that combo. Westbrook is the only viable option on O anymore, outside of L.J. Smith. Their defense doesn't look much better to me, either. They cut their best LB in Jeremiah Trotter, so all that is left is an aging Takeo Spikes, Chris Gocong, and the Gaither kid. Coupled with an aging defense, Green Bay's offense will be vastly improved this year IMO. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are a decent combo on the outside, and I think Brandon Jackson instantly improves their running game. The Packers' running game would have been respectable last year had they not lost Ahman Green. And on the other side of the ball, I think Justin Harrell instantly will help eat up some blockers and let A.J. Hawk run free evern moreso than last year.


Sorry if that was choppy and weak, but I just got finished moving and I'm on a friend's computer trying to look over this stuff(his computer sucks). Basically what I'm trying to say is the Eagles are vastly overrated and the Packers will be improved. But by Sunday I'll be able to give a better overview. And I'll also be hoping to suck a half point more on the Pack and hit them for 2 units.