***Homedog Heaven! Week 4 Discussion***

[Horfin]

I'm pretty certain the East to West is a farce. The whole theory is West to East playing at 1 pm EST (which would be 10 am for the West Coasters). When you go East to West you are always playing at 4pm which is 1pm. I'd put no stock in the East to West, only look at it West to East.

[Horfin]

Hey UDOG I think the Bills will be well prepared for the Jets who are an average team at best and will underestimate the Bills. I think Bills will keep it simple and use that good drive Edwards had as motivation and win this game SU. Go get em this week.

I'm leaning on the Bills, I like their chances here. If you play it wait till the last moment as the line SHOULD grow. I agree that everyone and their brother is on NYJ, which in itself is possibly a bad thing. Sometimes a simple gameplan (Vince Young) is the best possible game plan.

Horfin:beer2:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Sometimes a simple gameplan (Vince Young) is the best possible game plan.

...but Trent Edwards is no Vince Young.

[Horfin]

:bow: Nobody is Vince Young.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

:bow: Nobody is Vince Young.

[Underdog88]

I'm leaning on the Bills, I like their chances here. If you play it wait till the last moment as the line SHOULD grow. I agree that everyone and their brother is on NYJ, which in itself is possibly a bad thing.

It amazes me how a majority are willing to back the Jets as road faves! For those of you considering the Jets, is it more of a Bills fade or do you think the Jets are a good team? I guess I can see fading the Bills because of injuries, but in the end it's still a divisional game which these 2 teams have split series the past 4 years! The Jets beat Miami at home by 3, now they deserve to be road faves? Also, the dog is 3-1 su last 4 meetings.... +165 is good value on the ML IMO. I thought the Bills would start the season 0-3, & had this as their first win. I still think they win this one despite the injuries, but it will be close.


Anybody have a take on the Panthers/Bucs game? I'm leaning towards TB. The Panthers allowed 442 total yards to the Falcons, & Harrington had 361 & 2tds. The Texans had 346 total yards & Shaub was 20-28 227 2 tds. While TB's offense is far from prolific, Garcia should be able to move the ball on Carolina's defense. I think the perception is the Panthers are good defensively, when really they are average at best (allowing 342 yards per game). The Bucs have the better pass D, but my concern is that they are allowing over 4 ypc on the ground & the Panthers are avg 4.6 ypc.

[Daws1089]

i certainly wouldnt go with carolina. especially if david carr is at the helm which i think he will be. TB i believe will win that division and no better way than to punish a bad qb making him throw on you to beat you with one weapon in steve smith. I would TB or nothing.



What do you guys think about oakland +4. i know mccown is out, but culpepper should be ok. I dont believe miami deserve to be a favorite. Anyone else have thoughts on that game?

[Daws1089]

some news on the eagles.. Lito is Doubtful, Dawkins did not practice today but is Questionable, Will Thomas the LT is doubtful meaning winston justice will likely play. hes the future LT but i dont know if hes quite as good as will thomas. Westbrook didnt practice, but hes listed as Questionable, and finally Lito's replacement Will James is listed as Questionable but he did practice.

[Stifler's Mom]

I must apologize if this has already been stated, because I didn't read the entire thread yet, but I just have to comment this.

WHY, OH WHY could anyone pound the JETS as a -3.5 (or more) ROAD FAVE?

They SUCK.

It doesn't matter one bit if the Bills are bad. Laying points on the road with a bad team is a cardinal sin, no matter what.

I do realize the Bills aren't that good, but I really don't think getting hammered @ Pittsburgh and @ New England are a great measuring stick for how they may do against the Jets and their feeble QB who can't throw the ball more than like 20 yards, since those 2 teams have hammered everyone they've played so far, including the Jets taking a big time waxing at the hands of NE on their home field in week 1.

Edwards has had a week to prepare this week too, and in addition, the Bills normally play well at home....even when they're bad.

[Stifler's Mom]

I know this is not the most objective point of view, but I believe the Falcons are a good play this week. I've watched every minute of every game so far for the falcons and yes it doesn't show in the record, but the offense has made pretty significant improvements every game. The falcons could very easily be 2-1 and 1-2 at the minimum. In the Jacksonville game, if we have a real kicker and make those 2 late field goals, its a completely different game. But nope, we got some sorry rookie kicker who's no longer in the league. And then last game vs the Panthers. That game was handed to Carolina on a silver platter. with the missed FG on the botched snap early, Warrick Dunn's fumble after the loong run early...but despite those 2, the Falcons were still up by 7 late in the 3rd...Until DeAngello Hall complety lost his damn head and account 70 yards in penalty on ONE drive!! Anyway...all I'm saying is the Falcons aren't as bad as their record indicates, and their catching the Texans at a time where they're not 100%...IMO they win straight up this week for their 1st win this year......i know i know...it's a homer play!

Great write up bookie, and I couldn't agree more. I agree with everything you said, and I think the Falcons are one of the best plays on the board this week :thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

I wasn't comparing them with each other, but rather asking how you came up with a line of Steelers-9 on the road when they were 10 pt faves at home last week. While the Steelers may be a better team overall than the Ravens, exactly who have they played again? Oh yeah, the Browns, Bills & SF in a bad spot. The Ravens didn't cover the last 2 games, but does that really make them a letdown team? The Ravens dominated 75% of the Jets game...

I think the Ravens D is wearing out, or just not as good as advertised and riding that 2000 reputation just a tad yet. Yes, they still have some very good players on D, but it's just not anywhere near the same. Really....2 backdoor covers in a row? And when was the last time their once proud "D" allowed a team to come back from 20 points down (they led Arizona 23-3) to tie the game?

I don't see me laying points with that team anytime soon, and I think the Brownies are a great play this week.

As a matter of fact, I think all of the home dogs are. Not to get into a lehgthy babbling session here, but I can legitimately find some very solid reasons to play each and every home dog this week....but I'm having a hell of a hard time finding a reason to play ANY of the away faves, with the exception of possibly Pittsburgh, who like underdog said, could wear Arizona out with the run and put them away late, while I don't think Arizona will do much running on the Steelers defense.

It's pretty clear that this is the Pittsburgh team that won the super bowl 2 years ago, not the one who was all f'd up last year due to Ben's injury (he clearly wasn't right the whole year), adjusting to the loss of Bettis to retirement, and the hoolpa circus surrounding the retirement of Bill Cowher.

[Stifler's Mom]

agree with ya G-Money on the wisenhunt thing, I like Zona too, but I dunno about the east to west thing.

I figure going East from West is harder, losing 3 hours, and playing earlier than youre used to?

could be wrong. :nuts:

I don't know about East to West, but West to East is usually a tough spot for a team to play in....especially if it's an early game, and even more so if the West team played Sunday or Monday night the week before.

Going from East to West shouldn't be a big deal because you get 3 hours EXTRA....but I don't have any numbers to know for sure. Nothing I really ever thought of tracking.

I also see this thread is filled with Eagles/Giants chatter. I'm only about 2/3 of the way thru the thread, LOL, but has anyone mentioned that Brian Dawkins has an abdominal strain? This guy IS the Eagles offense (or at least he's the one who makes it go).

So McNabb shredded a **** Lions defense. I'm not exactly sold on them as a road fave at this point. The Eagles aren't as bad as they looked the first 2 weeks, but they're certainly not as good as they looked last week....and their defense still allowed a ton of yards, even though some of that could be ligitimized due to the fact that they were way ahead the whole game and Detroit did nothing but throw to try and catch up.

It should also be noted that the Giants defense did step up in clutch time last week, on the road, against a Washington team who was undefeated, and also beat the Eagles drum pretty soundly, in Philly. Yea, the final score was only 20-12, but the game was worse if you watched it.

That game is a classic case of "the Giants defense sucks, so I'll play Philly" from what I'm hearing. I guess the Bears defense sucks too then....because Dallas scored pretty damn many on them too....in Chicago.

That game to me is another case (like the Jets @ Buffalo) where I don't see how the heck it can be justified to lay points with Philly on the road at this point, just because they hammered a pretty bad Lions team (yea, they were 2-0, over Oakland and Minnesota....big whoop), and also a Lions team that has played like **** on the road ever since I can remember.

[Stifler's Mom]

I'll be on Indy. I hate laying so many points this week, but I think they are the right plays. Denver barely beats bads teams in Buffalo and Oakland, and then gets blown out by Jax at home? Now they get to go into Indy for the Colts return home? Like Indy to roll...pounding the ball with Addai, and selectively getting the recivers involved when the run is working. Colts at home are tough, and are due for a blowout.

I agree....I don't know if I'll play Indy, but there's no way in hell I'd take the points with Denver. They're pretty bad.

[TheBeholdah]

It amazes me how a majority are willing to back the Jets as road faves! For those of you considering the Jets, is it more of a Bills fade or do you think the Jets are a good team?

fade of the bills, jets are much healthier and i cant see edwards magically getting the offense going here, it's not like the jets suck they are still well coached and have a better running back than last year

[Stifler's Mom]

To say that (can't see Edwards magically getting anything going on offense), you must assume Losman ever had something going, which he really didn't.

When the Bills win, it's with with defense and special teams, and running the ball on offense. If Edwards even completes a few passes over 10 yards, it should open up the game for Lynch, who has been a real strong runner this year behind a completely new (and better than the last few years) offensive line.

I don't believe Penningwuss has the arm strength to take advantage of the Bills injuries in the secondary either.

If Edwards just plays the "Trent Dilfer role" of "just don't lose the game for us dummy", the Bills will compete in this game. If he does anything above and beyond, I'm pretty certain the the Bills should win outright.

Edwards doesn't have much experience, but he did play in an NFL type system at Stanford, and has a huge arm....possibly being able to take advantage of the speed of Lee Evans and/or Roscoe Parrish for a change.

I, for one (as a fan), welcome the change, just to see what Edwards can do with some time to prepare....as Losman is not a "pocket passer", even though Buffalo has continually tried to use him as such, while Edwards fits that role much better....therefore possibly fitting the Buffalo offensive scheme better.

We'll see I guess.