***Playoff Discussion***

[Daws1089]

I'll get things going for this week's discussion. No need for a new thread.

I doubt I'll bet it, but I would have to side with SEA again this week. No way I'm laying 10 pts with that piece of crap Cutler running things. You just can't tell when he's going to be on his game. SEA do have the setup for a big let down, but 10 pts again is a lot. I could see a bunch of points being scored in this one. Total is only 41.


I like the ravens this week and think they might win that too. I can get them +3 +100 right now. I would never lay pts in that matchup. Not overly impressed with Pitt, and I think the ravens have the D to stand up to pitt's offense and Balt has the O to score enough on pitt. Love the 3 pts there.


Packers look good again too. I really like the over in the falcons packers game.

[V3r1f13d]

Went 2-2 last week, lost a little juice. Meh...

Pre Picks
Balt vs Pit Over 36.5
Seattle +10
Atlanta -2
NYJ vs NE Over 44.5

[ATS_BDG]

Falcons/Packers matchup

Hey Guys let's talk about this Falcons Packers matchup.

I agree with Daws, I like the over here. That total is falling down to 43.5 too. Everyone is talking about the Packers defense and I think Vegas is getting a lot on the Under. However, consdering it is indoor and remembering that both teams put up a lot of points I have to go Over here. Previous matchup between the two was low scoring and i think that brings value on the OVER into the equation. I also remember last year the Packers played that playoff game with Arizona which was the highest scoring playoff game ever......51-45.

I think that the Falcons are still the better team, however it will be such a close game that I have to take Falcons on the moneyline and not the points. This is a tricky line because it is so similar to what we saw with Philly/Green Bay. That is why Green Bay LOOKS good here. More thoughts....?

[ATS_BDG]

Total on Bears/Seahawks

All the trends point toward the OVER. Seahawks offense rolling good and Bears well rested should put up points However, the problem here is the possible bad weather.
Im not sure on this total. Please help.

[blitzkrieg555]

I really think Chicago will win this one straight up. However I can actually see it being somewhat close so I would have to go with +10 Seattle in all honesty. Chicago has improved since earlier in the season. Their running game has become somewhat respectable as well. Im sure they will try to keep the ball away.from Hester but he's usually a threat on punt returns and the kinda guy that has big plays at the right time.

I like the Pack at +2.5 again as well. It was a very close game last time they met. ATL won by a FG with 9 seconds remaining. Matt Ryan was rediculously efficient passing the ball and Michael Turner had 110 yards on the ground. I have a feeling this time they will do a better job on him. Also Green Bay had pretty much no run game at all... Jackson had 26 yards. This time they have James Starks who will at least put up some adequate ground yards. Don't forget Green Bay's 8 penalties last time as well. I think Green Bay takes it outright.

[Billy The Kid]

I have a strong lean on towards the Bears right now even laying the -9.5/-10. I hate playing on Cutler as much as the next guy but I don't like the situation for Seattle at all. IMO no way they catch the Bears off guard this weekend after beating NO. Bears also have revenge angle after losing to Seattle at home earlier this season. Seattle was off a bye in that game and they were able to sack Cutler 6 times, gotta think the Bears make the adjustments with the extra week. Also love the Bears D in this game. Last weeks offensive explosion by Seattle was fuled by the underdog card/playing at home/against an over rated Saints D that didn't make the same plays it did a year ago. Bears D is significantly better and should be able to stop Seattles rushing attack while getting to a banged up Hasselbeck. On the other side, Seattle still gave up 36 pooints and allowed Brees to throw for 400+ yds! Don't see how they keep Cutler under 300+ passing if he can limit turnovers, and if that is the case I like my chances. Also don't understand the public perception of the Hawks now. Seems like they are becomming a public trendy play this weekend and I don't get it. Last week it was "they don't belong in the playoffs", now they beat the Saints and they are expected to compete with Chicago. IMO it is the perfect spot to fade them. I def. think the Bears are an over rated team and didn't deserve the #2 seed but they are still the superior team in the much better spot. Also think the books are playing on public perception now as well throwing out the -10. Maybe I'm missing something but I hate playing road dogs that are backed by the public, never mind when they are the Seahags off an upset home victory.

[Daws1089]

i hear that loud and clear billy the kid. Let's not all forget how bad seattle is away from home in the west coast to east coast 1 pm game time.

[Stifler's Mom]

Not a ton of time right now.

First of all, nice call on Seattle winning outright last week Daws. Saints were terrible, Seattle was amped, and they did what it took to win. Great job :thumbs:

With that being said, Seattle is still sucks, their emotional high will be gone, the Bears have revenge, and Seattle will get blasted at Chicago this week, imho.

A rested Steelers team with the better D in every way possible should take down the Raisins at home. When it comes right down to it, KC was VERY overrated, and really did little more than navigate a cupcake schedule to make the playoffs. OAKLAND was the best team in that division, but....yeah. I'm just not putting much into Baltimore's win @ KC, and both meetings between PIT and BAL were close this year. BUT, PIT won AT BALTIMORE (even if it was because of a big defensive play at the end) and barely lost at home with buffoon Dixon at QB. Pit wins this game hands down in this situation MOST times, and laying the -3 is easy, even though I've seen many taking the +3 just looking for a close game. Oddsmakers disagree, or it would be +2.5, or less....

GB is a better team than ATL imho and should win outright, even at ATL. Oddsmakers agree here, imo, as they can't even muster up a -3 for ATL who is "so great at home", and has had a bye....which is all I hear flying off the tongue of every square in sight this week. GB is still the team to beat in the NFC imho, and I'll play them as a dog every time....

Not sure about NYJ/NE. One part of me thinks the NYJ sucks and NE will blast them again. One part says that's too simple of a thinking though, and when it counts, sexy rex will come up with something to counteract that last beating, the NYJ players will show some pride, and they will slow NE, and keep it competitive, which is all I need getting +9. Hmmmmm on that one....

[Underdog88]

Not a ton of time right now.

First of all, nice call on Seattle winning outright last week Daws. Saints were terrible, Seattle was amped, and they did what it took to win. Great job :thumbs:

With that being said, Seattle is still sucks, their emotional high will be gone, the Bears have revenge, and Seattle will get blasted at Chicago this week, imho.

A rested Steelers team with the better D in every way possible should take down the Raisins at home. When it comes right down to it, KC was VERY overrated, and really did little more than navigate a cupcake schedule to make the playoffs. OAKLAND was the best team in that division, but....yeah. I'm just not putting much into Baltimore's win @ KC, and both meetings between PIT and BAL were close this year. BUT, PIT won AT BALTIMORE (even if it was because of a big defensive play at the end) and barely lost at home with buffoon Dixon at QB. Pit wins this game hands down in this situation MOST times, and laying the -3 is easy, even though I've seen many taking the +3 just looking for a close game. Oddsmakers disagree, or it would be +2.5, or less....

GB is a better team than ATL imho and should win outright, even at ATL. Oddsmakers agree here, imo, as they can't even muster up a -3 for ATL who is "so great at home", and has had a bye....which is all I hear flying off the tongue of every square in sight this week. GB is still the team to beat in the NFC imho, and I'll play them as a dog every time....

Not sure about NYJ/NE. One part of me thinks the NYJ sucks and NE will blast them again. One part says that's too simple of a thinking though, and when it counts, sexy rex will come up with something to counteract that last beating, the NYJ players will show some pride, and they will slow NE, and keep it competitive, which is all I need getting +9. Hmmmmm on that one....

Damn Stif sorry to inform you I like the Packers and Steelers, and was fade material last week...

[DukiesBaby]

FALCONS

STEELERS

PATS



These 3 have been the best 3 all year... im sticking with them, and as far as seattle and chicago are concerned SUCK MY BALLS... they both suck and if either of these 2 teams make it to superbowl i am gonna quit betting on nfl in general, i am a firm believer seattle is garbage im less than 200 miles away from them i see them every week play, and no matter how lucky they got last week they are garbage, i call shenanigans and if seahawks make superbowl... as far as i am concerned the nfl is 100% fixed!


falcons are the only team out of my big 3 up there i see having trouble, but i like consistent teams and that they are... im gonna ride the big 3, and bet the steelers over the falcons in superbowl :thumbs:

Good luck fellas! :beerbang:

[Daws1089]

how were the seahawks horrible last week? if anything new orleans was. Their defense was :puke: and turned the ball over too much.


on a different note, one thing I think I overlooked with PIT/BALT was how much success KC had running on BALT in the first half. Most of the yards came on outside runs which isn't really Mendenhall's game, but it is still a concern I have with backing the ravens.

[NittanyLions94]

Not a ton of time right now.

First of all, nice call on Seattle winning outright last week Daws. Saints were terrible, Seattle was amped, and they did what it took to win. Great job :thumbs:

With that being said, Seattle is still sucks, their emotional high will be gone, the Bears have revenge, and Seattle will get blasted at Chicago this week, imho.

A rested Steelers team with the better D in every way possible should take down the Raisins at home. When it comes right down to it, KC was VERY overrated, and really did little more than navigate a cupcake schedule to make the playoffs. OAKLAND was the best team in that division, but....yeah. I'm just not putting much into Baltimore's win @ KC, and both meetings between PIT and BAL were close this year. BUT, PIT won AT BALTIMORE (even if it was because of a big defensive play at the end) and barely lost at home with buffoon Dixon at QB. Pit wins this game hands down in this situation MOST times, and laying the -3 is easy, even though I've seen many taking the +3 just looking for a close game. Oddsmakers disagree, or it would be +2.5, or less....

GB is a better team than ATL imho and should win outright, even at ATL. Oddsmakers agree here, imo, as they can't even muster up a -3 for ATL who is "so great at home", and has had a bye....which is all I hear flying off the tongue of every square in sight this week. GB is still the team to beat in the NFC imho, and I'll play them as a dog every time....

Not sure about NYJ/NE. One part of me thinks the NYJ sucks and NE will blast them again. One part says that's too simple of a thinking though, and when it counts, sexy rex will come up with something to counteract that last beating, the NYJ players will show some pride, and they will slow NE, and keep it competitive, which is all I need getting +9. Hmmmmm on that one....

Batch played that game, but the point stands, he was junk. Under threw Mike Wallace on 3 deep balls where he had 2-3 steps on Webb. Steelers D always shuts down Baltimore, and in that game it was the same for the most part. The final TD drive probably doesn't happen if Ben is playing, or if not for an illegal formation. The second meeting had Ben with a broken foot, and shortly after a broken nose. They played nearly that whole game out of the pistol formation. Ben's only 2 losses came in the Cowher lame duck year when he mailed it in early after the 2005 season.

This will be the first time the Steelers have been close to healthy and facing the Ravens, and James Harrison vs. Michael Oher is the biggest mismatch in this game IMO. Oher has struggled a ton this year, and had some bad false starts in the last meeting.

Some thoughts on the game. Tried to keep it unbiased, but don't know quite enough abut the specifics of other Ravens' games to comment a ton on them other than the 2 I saw them play the Steelers.

[NittanyLions94]

Football outsiders gives a statistical look at games too, it's a good site for stat guys:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2010 AFC Divisional Round Preview

[Underdog88]

Great post Nitts!

[NittanyLions94]

Great post Nitts!

Thanks man, have done pretty well betting Steeler games this year. Easier to know what to expect from a team you see each game twice and follow the day to day happenings. Hope you have a good Divisional weekend, and I've been visiting you guys even if I haven't been posting. Gotta see who you, Daws, BB, Horfin, etc. are on before I call the man on Sundays :thumbs:

Side note, the only other game I really like(which doesn't mean I'm laying off the others :beer2: ) is the Bears. That thing is a mismatch from jump street. NO was banged up bigtime last week and couldn't stop anyone down the stretch. No run game makes it tough to win on the road in January.