xHeroOfTheDayx WC 2010 --- Road To Big $$$

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

Uruguay 0-1 Netherlands 19' +$384.62

That goal was disgusting.

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

WORLD CUP

Uruguay vs. Netherlands

Netherlands Team Total Over 0.5 1H (-130)
$500 to win $384.62

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

Any thoughts on the line movement Hero? The ML was down to -130 in some places...people betting on Uruguay or reverse line movement you think?

The line movement doesn't concern me. But money is coming in on Uruguay right now.

Line-ups have been released. Uruguay is weak, and running a 4-4-2. A dangerous formation to run, and the Dutch should have plenty of wide open strikes from distance.

As always, we'll see how it pans out.

[TheShank]

Any thoughts on the line movement Hero? The ML was down to -130 in some places...people betting on Uruguay or reverse line movement you think?

[akatdrake]

I like it, Hero - best of luck today!

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

Holland it is!!! but would you get -1 at +110?

It's not worth it IMO, since -160 or so is an extremely fair price. A turn of events such as a Forlan FK could end up making that a push, which would be extremely disappointing. If your up this World Cup, I highly suggest the ML.

[pkchater]

Holland it is!!! but would you get -1 at +110?

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

Hero, dont you think this line is a lot like the one in brazil game? even you said the line is too atrrative. sounds too fishy

This line is absolutely nothing like the Brazil-Netherlands game.

The line isn't too attractive. Fact of the matter is, this IS a Semi-Final game, and the books are getting enough money on both sides to bank.

The line is -200 at Sportsbook. -200 for a regulation Semi-Final game is absurd in it's own right.

You can't even begin to understand how much money books will take in on Uruguay backers who don't consider any of these circumstances except for Suarez being out.

Logical square thinking follows: "Semi-Final game. Winner of Group A, who has yet to lose a game. I can get them at +0.5 for +150, against an overrated Dutch team, who shouldn't be here in the first place".

Facts:
-It is a Semi-Final game.
-Uruguay is the winner of Group A, doing so in impressive fashion.
-Uruguay has not lost a game.
-Netherlands are most definitely overrated.
-They really shouldn't be here.

Yet they are -200 favorites. So you tell me what sounds fishy. If this line was -300 or above, the books would have an ungodly amount of money on Uruguay. The books don't take risks. Chances like these are very common... in all sports actually. But very rare when you can paint such a clear picture of what is going on.


GL to you, and whatever you decide to do.

[pkchater]

Hero, dont you think this line is a lot like the one in brazil game? even you said the line is too atrrative. sounds too fishy

[ink]

hey hero any thoughts on the germany vs. spain game yet?

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

World Cup Record:
23-10 $14,580

WORLD CUP

Uruguay vs. Netherlands

I don't have a whole lot of time for a write up, but this will be a very large play for me.


Neither these teams truly deserve to be here. Put both of these teams at full strength, and on a neutral site, and I wouldn't touch this game with a 10ft pole.

Lugano is very unlikely to play. Even if he does, the injury is going to hamper his performance. Lodeiro is definitely out, and whether Godin is considered fit or not, he too will be hampered by injury. Suarez is out for his handball heroics, and Fucile will be serving his one match ban.

On the Dutch side.. and concern about Robin van Persie is irrelevant, as he is back to 100%... Mathijsen is as well.


You would assume the venue should be primarily 50/50, but no. If everyone hasn't noticed, the Dutch has had massive amounts of support throughout the tournament. SO at least the locals will be 50/50... no. Uruguay is now hated because of the Suarez handball. Not just because it was a dirty tactic, but it ended up KOing the Continent, and local favorite. Uruguay won't be playing the Cinderella role, they will be the heel.


Mash all this up, and all signs point to Uruguay getting smashed. -170 is a joke of a line for this game. You never see -200 and above for a Semi-Final game, but this should be around -400/-500 IMO. That is the true value, but the books obviously just have to scoop action on both sides.

Uruguay doesn't know how to play cautiously, and they won't start trying tomorrow. They'll be looking for the breakthrough, and fail over and over. The pitch will feel 1000 meters wide for the Dutch, as every player will be 3x as good, and match fit as the defender assigned to them.


Play: Uruguay vs. Netherlands (-170)
$5,100 to win $3,000

Prediction: Uruguay 0-3 Netherlands

[TheShank]

Any play on the game tomorrow hero? I am leaning towards Holland to qualify...a lot of juice though at -300. Might just play the ML at -160.

The under 2.5 might be the better play though instead of taking a side.

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

Is there a chance FIFA will have Mueller's yellow card withdrawn?

0% chance. I always hope for reversals, but they won't undermine the referees like that. It was a subjective call, and he technically did touch the ball. Obviously it was unintentional, but whatever.

[kraut]

Is there a chance FIFA will have Muellers yellow card withdrawn?

[kraut]

You could possibly make a case for Khedira instead of Mueller. But Trochowski, or Kroos can fill in for Mueller without complication.

Germany will be fine as long as Low doesn't push Cacau into the lineup. He just may break the all time World Cup record for turnovers if that's the case.

Actually ya you're right about the fill ins.. It's just that Mueller has been fantastic :bang:

But ya I see Low putting either Marin or Trochowski in for Mueller.. But if it were up to me it would be Kroos. And ya he is nuts if he puts Cacau in.