New England/Cincinnati Line

[Underdog88]

While I think the Pats are a great team, it's a bit early to be crowning them AFC Champs. Is it really that impressive that the Pats have won so handily in their first 3 games? They have yet to face a decent offense!

NFL Total Offense

Bills #31

Jets #28

Chargers #26

Bengals #4


Palmer passed for 342 yards in Seattle last week. Had it not been for 4 turnovers, Cincy picks up the road win. IMO the one weakness the Pats D may have (I say may because a team has yet to exploit it) is their secondary. Hobbs (5-9) will likely get the task of covering #85 (6-1), & I would expect Chad to use his size advantage to the fullest. If given time to throw, Palmer will find an open receiver. The question is how much time does he get? I think nose tackle Wilfork's status could be a big factor here, as he is the rock of their d-line. If he's a no-go, Carson may have some extra time, giving the Bengals receivers time for double moves..... Although Rudi is a stud, Watson did rush 9x for 60 yards in Seattle. I would expect the Pats to throw a bunch of different looks at Cincy, & to drop more guys into coverage & allow the underneath plays... Carson will have to take what they give him & not force anything for Cincy to win/cover.

On the other side of the ball, we all know Cincy has a suspect D. One thing they have going for them is that they are physical. Everyone is calling for a shootout, but do you really think the Pats want to get involved in that? No way! I expect a ton of dink & dunk plays the Pats have become famous for running. I'm sure Belichek will look to wear down the D, so I expect tons of carries for Maroney/Morris as well. Ball control & keep the Bengals potent offense off the field. To win Cincy will have to be agressive but not over pursue.

Currently I'm leaning Bengals & under, but haven't locked anything in. Despite the Pats blowing out teams this season, they have accumulated totals of 52, 52 & 45. 54 is a damn high number to cover, especially when you take into effect the Pats gameplan ( which is purely my own speculation lol). 2td a quarter for the whole game could very well happen, but a couple 8 minute drives, some stalls & perhaps a turnover or 2 could very well keep this under the total. Just in case anyone forgot Homedogs are 11-4 ATS this season!.


Some great discussion here BTW

[EddieP]

no one liking the under??? :nuts:

[fenway]

pats/cincy game

here is the question i pose. how do you keep a high scoring offense from scoring. by keeping their offense off the field. I predict the patriots will run a lot tonight keeping the cincy offense off the field by chewing up the clock. 53 points is a lot for an over. that is almost 2 td's a quarter. if they run the ball alot that will be hard to do. pats by 8

[Reznor]

I don't know how true this is but I read on another board that in the NFL that 83% of the straight up winners cover the spread. Yesterday all of the game winners covered the spread. I don't know if that makes me want to pick NE or Cin because the laws of averages has to be in favor of the Bengals tonight right? I haven't made my bet yet and I'm more confused than ever but I'm still leaning to the Pats being able to stop the Bengals two more times than the Bengals will be stopped. That doesn't even count the Bengals settling for field goals.

[homedawg]

This is what results in a 70%-30% split on the Pats.................

This weekend:
Joe Public: "There is no way SD loses to KC"
Joe Public: "There is no way Chi loses to Detroit, Detroit just allowed 50+ pts to Philly and finally Grossman is out of there."
Joe Public: "There is no way NYG hangs with Philadelphia...Phil just layed a big one on Detroit."
Joe Public: "Buffalo is all banged up they can not possibly stay with the Jets."
Joe Public: "Cleveland cant stay with a McNair led Baltimore team"
Joe Public: "Favre sucks in Domes"
Joe Public: "Carolina is much better than TB and TB got lucky last two against a bad NO team."
Joe Public: "Pittsburgh has destroyed the last three teams it has played and Arizona has had a hard time with all of its opponents...I don't care that Pitt is on the road..."

Look long and hard at that last one. I mean really long and hard.

Horfin

:th: Here's another: There is no way in hell, Appalachian State, beats Michigan

:hide:

[yukoncornelius]

This is really a great thread, Stiffler is making some damn good points.

On the subject of parlays, believe it or not last year I hit a 10 team nfl parlay (only a couple were spreads though)..and half of them were pretty good faves. Needless to say, it was the single best day of my wagering life haha.

The more I think about it, the more I want to take cincy and the over, and going against NE is a hard thing to do at this point. Seems BETUS doesn't want to get off 7.5 Cincy is +105 with the spread.

[Skinsfan]

Stif i disagree... the NFL is not a transitive league... maybe college is, but not the nfl.... the nfl is a week to week league... any one team can beat any other team.... blowing out 3 teams in a row is damn impressive, i don't care who you are playing.... the fact that SD lost yesterday doesn't in any way change the Pats win over SD. No team is the same week to week. That being said....


i kind of like the bengals tonight with the points

[DevilsAdvokt]

You lost because it is a 9-team parlay. Period. lol!
I would say that 99% of 9 team parlay's lose.

Close though!

GL! :beerbang:

ya true but its my usual 8-10 spot 5 dollar pick i do every week



btw tonights game seems fishy like the eagles/giants

u smell points under with alot of ball control here?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

i am still upset at yesterday afternoon qb's leaving me with these questions to why i lost this ticket

You lost because it is a 9-team parlay. Period. lol!
I would say that 99% of 9 team parlay's lose.

Close though!

GL! :beerbang:

[DevilsAdvokt]

This is what results in a 70%-30% split on the Pats.................

This weekend:
Joe Public: "There is no way SD loses to KC"
Joe Public: "There is no way Chi loses to Detroit, Detroit just allowed 50+ pts to Philly and finally Grossman is out of there."
Joe Public: "There is no way NYG hangs with Philadelphia...Phil just layed a big one on Detroit."
Joe Public: "Buffalo is all banged up they can not possibly stay with the Jets."
Joe Public: "Cleveland cant stay with a McNair led Baltimore team"
Joe Public: "Favre sucks in Domes"
Joe Public: "Carolina is much better than TB and TB got lucky last two against a bad NO team."
Joe Public: "Pittsburgh has destroyed the last three teams it has played and Arizona has had a hard time with all of its opponents...I don't care that Pitt is on the road..."

Look long and hard at that last one. I mean really long and hard.

Horfin

i made a parlay 9 spot yesterday
(all games were money line to win)


kc
san fran ----- lost
detroit
cleveland
colts
packers
bucs
giants
steelers----- lost

i am still upset at yesterday afternoon qb's leaving me with these questions to why i lost this ticket


lion-heart why do you have to suck so bad?
warner why you have to come in the game and hurt me again?
alex smith why did u leave your team on the field, maybe suck it up next time?
Dilfer why are you still in the NFL? atleast mcnabb played a talented d-line

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

This is what results in a 70%-30% split on the Pats.................

This weekend:
Joe Public: "There is no way SD loses to KC"
Joe Public: "There is no way Chi loses to Detroit, Detroit just allowed 50+ pts to Philly and finally Grossman is out of there."
Joe Public: "There is no way NYG hangs with Philadelphia...Phil just layed a big one on Detroit."
Joe Public: "Buffalo is all banged up they can not possibly stay with the Jets."
Joe Public: "Cleveland cant stay with a McNair led Baltimore team"
Joe Public: "Favre sucks in Domes"
Joe Public: "Carolina is much better than TB and TB got lucky last two against a bad NO team."
Joe Public: "Pittsburgh has destroyed the last three teams it has played and Arizona has had a hard time with all of its opponents...I don't care that Pitt is on the road..."

Also...
Joe Public: "Dallas will kill a bad STL team"
Joe Public: "Indy too strong at home, will kill a suspect Denver squad"

The only team in your above examples that could be considered elite is Pittsburgh. The way SD, Chi, Phi, NYJ, Bal, Min and Car have played this year...meaning inconsistant at best, and horrible at worst...not even the people who backed them as a favourite are THAT surprised to get a Loss I would think (including me with NYJ/CAR!)

NE is more of a Dallas or Indy situation, IMO.

And one could say the Pats are in an even better spot than all these other road favs above that lost, as Brady and Belichek are known to get it done in these situations...they are is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as the road favorite. Contrary to worries of it happening from some people...history says they rarely let backdoor covers happen in these situations...it's called ball control, and good situational defence.

GL! :beerbang:

[Horfin]

Offensive fireworks should be featured prominently in the script for Monday night's game, which has the Cincinnati Bengals entertaining the unbeaten New England Patriots at Paul Brown Stadium.

The Bengals are not off to a strong start, having followed up an opening-night win over the Ravens with back-to-back losses to the Browns (51-45) and Seahawks (24-21).

Cincinnati has proven its ability to move the football, with quarterback Carson Palmer and wideouts Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh all on a record-setting offensive pace.

But the bigger story for the Bengals has been the deficiency of the team's defense, which has surrendered eight touchdown passes over the past two weeks to saddle Marvin Lewis' club with losses.

A fact which should have this week's opponent, the high-flying Patriots, positively salivating.

New England has looked unstoppable offensively in the first three weeks, with the duo of quarterback Tom Brady and wideout Randy Moss sparking blowout wins over the Jets (38-14), Chargers (38-14), and Bills (38-7).

Brady enters Week 4 with an NFL-leading 10 touchdown passes, and has thrown three or more TDs in three consecutive games for the first time in his illustrious career.

Moss, meanwhile, has gone over 100 receiving yards in each of his first three games of 2007, becoming the first player in NFL annals to achieve that feat in his initial trio of appearances for a new team.

SERIES HISTORY

New England holds a 12-8 lead in the all-time series with Cincinnati, including a 38-13 dismantling of the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium in Week 4 of last season. Cincinnati is 0-2 against New England since scoring its last victory in the series, a 23-17 win at home in 2001.

New England head coach Bill Belichick is 11-3 in his career against the Bengals, including 3-1 while with the Patriots. Cincinnati's Lewis is 0-2 against both Belichick and the Patriots as a head coach.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

New England enters Week 4 ranked No. 1 in NFL total offense (441 yards per game), and has a league-high 15 touchdowns scored already in 2007. Brady (887 passing yards, 10 TD, 1 INT) is a very early front-runner for NFL Offensive Player of the Year honors, as he leads the league in passer rating (141.8), touchdown passes, and completion percentage (79.5) through three weeks. The perennial Pro Bowl quarterback's favorite target has been the indefensible Moss (22 receptions, 5 TD), though Brady has spread the football often to other targets such as tight end Ben Watson (9 receptions, 3 TD) and wideout Wes Welker (20 receptions, 1 TD). Watson has scored a touchdown in each of the team's first three games thus far, while Welker comes off a week in which he paced the Pats with six catches in a win over Buffalo. Perhaps overlooked amid the passing barrage has been the play of the running game, with Laurence Maroney (252 rushing yards) and Sammy Morris (151 rushing yards, 2 TD) both doing their share of damage thus far. Maroney carried 19 times for 103 yards against the Bills.

If Cincinnati has any hope of scoring an upset on Monday, it will need an otherworldly effort from a defense that has been among the worst in the league thus far. One week after allowing formerly anonymous Cleveland quarterback Derek Anderson to throw five touchdown passes in a 51-45 win, Seattle signal- caller Matt Hasselbeck was able to throw scoring strikes to three different wide receivers in last week's Cincinnati loss. A Bengals secondary led by cornerbacks Deltha O'Neal (11 tackles) and Johnathan Joseph (8 tackles) along with safety Madieu Williams (21 tackles, 1 INT) will have to grow up in a hurry on Monday, and must get some help from a pass rush that has been mostly nonexistent thus far. Cincinnati has just four sacks through three games, including one - by Robert Geathers (9 tackles) - from a defensive end. The front seven gave up 100 yards to Shaun Alexander last week, an improvement on the 200-plus game they gave the Browns' Jamal Lewis a one Sunday prior. Linebacker Landon Johnson (22 tackles) leads the club in stops as Week 4 begins.

WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL

As if there was any doubt, you can expect Cincinnati to throw, throw, and throw some more on Sunday night. Any semblance of balance was thrown out the window when it was learned that running back Rudi Johnson (hamstring) was unlikely to be available, placing the burden of the ground game on usual third-down back Kenny Watson (60 rushing yards, 1 TD). That means you can expect to see a lot of connections between quarterback Carson Palmer (937 passing yards, 9 TD, 4 INT) and wideouts Chad Johnson (25 receptions, 3 TD) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (29 receptions, 4 TD), the trio that has more or less represented the entire offense through the first three weeks. Johnson leads the NFL in receiving yards (442), and fellow Houshmandzadeh is tops in the league in catches as Week 4 commences. In addition to Johnson, wideout Tab Perry (groin) is unlikely to see action on Monday night.

For all the accolades that the offense is receiving, few might be aware that the Patriots are also tops in the league in total defense (207 yards per game) as Week 4 begins. The New England pass rush has already generated 10 sacks on the year, with outside linebacker Mike Vrabel (18 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and end Jarvis Green (10 tackles, 2.5 sacks) ranking among league leaders in that category. The Patriots have also stifled the running games of the Jets, Chargers, and Bills, with nose tackle Vince Wilfork (7 tackles) and Ty Warren (13 tackles, 1 sack) making plays in the trenches and linebackers Tedy Bruschi (12 tackles) and Adalius Thomas (17 tackles, 1 INT) making plays behind them. The secondary has played well but is looking for a few more big plays, as cornerback Asante Samuel's (6 tackles) interception of Trent Edwards last Sunday ranked as the secondary's first pick of the year.


OVERALL ANALYSIS

Cincinnati rode a great wave of emotion to a win the last time it appeared at home, and Monday night's crowd should be just as vocal as the one that lifted Lewis and company to that win over Baltimore. But emotion can only take a team so far before talent takes over, and New England has a decided talent advantage in this contest. Cincinnati is perhaps the worst candidate in the league to stop the New England passing attack, which should have the Patriots scoring points at will. The Bengals will give the New England secondary problems as well, but short of scoring on every drive, you can't expect Cincinnati to do enough to run with an elite Patriots team for four quarters.

This is what results in a 70%-30% split on the Pats.................

This weekend:
Joe Public: "There is no way SD loses to KC"
Joe Public: "There is no way Chi loses to Detroit, Detroit just allowed 50+ pts to Philly and finally Grossman is out of there."
Joe Public: "There is no way NYG hangs with Philadelphia...Phil just layed a big one on Detroit."
Joe Public: "Buffalo is all banged up they can not possibly stay with the Jets."
Joe Public: "Cleveland cant stay with a McNair led Baltimore team"
Joe Public: "Favre sucks in Domes"
Joe Public: "Carolina is much better than TB and TB got lucky last two against a bad NO team."
Joe Public: "Pittsburgh has destroyed the last three teams it has played and Arizona has had a hard time with all of its opponents...I don't care that Pitt is on the road..."

Look long and hard at that last one. I mean really long and hard.

Horfin

[PhillyFan3]

Why the Pats will win and cover??

a- I am going to bet the Bengals
b- read statement a

[homedawg]

NFL Monday Night Football Free Pick


Analysis: Stats are all New England on this one and the Patriots have been impressive so far to say the least. On the other hand the Monday Night graveyard is full of big away favorites and Cincinnati has on paper the offense at least to hang with what has become a high scoring NE team. Our advice? Don't lay big points on the road right now...

Favor: Pass



:beer2:

[homedawg]

Offensive fireworks should be featured prominently in the script for Monday night's game, which has the Cincinnati Bengals entertaining the unbeaten New England Patriots at Paul Brown Stadium.

The Bengals are not off to a strong start, having followed up an opening-night win over the Ravens with back-to-back losses to the Browns (51-45) and Seahawks (24-21).

Cincinnati has proven its ability to move the football, with quarterback Carson Palmer and wideouts Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh all on a record-setting offensive pace.

But the bigger story for the Bengals has been the deficiency of the team's defense, which has surrendered eight touchdown passes over the past two weeks to saddle Marvin Lewis' club with losses.

A fact which should have this week's opponent, the high-flying Patriots, positively salivating.

New England has looked unstoppable offensively in the first three weeks, with the duo of quarterback Tom Brady and wideout Randy Moss sparking blowout wins over the Jets (38-14), Chargers (38-14), and Bills (38-7).

Brady enters Week 4 with an NFL-leading 10 touchdown passes, and has thrown three or more TDs in three consecutive games for the first time in his illustrious career.

Moss, meanwhile, has gone over 100 receiving yards in each of his first three games of 2007, becoming the first player in NFL annals to achieve that feat in his initial trio of appearances for a new team.

SERIES HISTORY

New England holds a 12-8 lead in the all-time series with Cincinnati, including a 38-13 dismantling of the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium in Week 4 of last season. Cincinnati is 0-2 against New England since scoring its last victory in the series, a 23-17 win at home in 2001.

New England head coach Bill Belichick is 11-3 in his career against the Bengals, including 3-1 while with the Patriots. Cincinnati's Lewis is 0-2 against both Belichick and the Patriots as a head coach.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

New England enters Week 4 ranked No. 1 in NFL total offense (441 yards per game), and has a league-high 15 touchdowns scored already in 2007. Brady (887 passing yards, 10 TD, 1 INT) is a very early front-runner for NFL Offensive Player of the Year honors, as he leads the league in passer rating (141.8), touchdown passes, and completion percentage (79.5) through three weeks. The perennial Pro Bowl quarterback's favorite target has been the indefensible Moss (22 receptions, 5 TD), though Brady has spread the football often to other targets such as tight end Ben Watson (9 receptions, 3 TD) and wideout Wes Welker (20 receptions, 1 TD). Watson has scored a touchdown in each of the team's first three games thus far, while Welker comes off a week in which he paced the Pats with six catches in a win over Buffalo. Perhaps overlooked amid the passing barrage has been the play of the running game, with Laurence Maroney (252 rushing yards) and Sammy Morris (151 rushing yards, 2 TD) both doing their share of damage thus far. Maroney carried 19 times for 103 yards against the Bills.

If Cincinnati has any hope of scoring an upset on Monday, it will need an otherworldly effort from a defense that has been among the worst in the league thus far. One week after allowing formerly anonymous Cleveland quarterback Derek Anderson to throw five touchdown passes in a 51-45 win, Seattle signal- caller Matt Hasselbeck was able to throw scoring strikes to three different wide receivers in last week's Cincinnati loss. A Bengals secondary led by cornerbacks Deltha O'Neal (11 tackles) and Johnathan Joseph (8 tackles) along with safety Madieu Williams (21 tackles, 1 INT) will have to grow up in a hurry on Monday, and must get some help from a pass rush that has been mostly nonexistent thus far. Cincinnati has just four sacks through three games, including one - by Robert Geathers (9 tackles) - from a defensive end. The front seven gave up 100 yards to Shaun Alexander last week, an improvement on the 200-plus game they gave the Browns' Jamal Lewis a one Sunday prior. Linebacker Landon Johnson (22 tackles) leads the club in stops as Week 4 begins.

WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL

As if there was any doubt, you can expect Cincinnati to throw, throw, and throw some more on Sunday night. Any semblance of balance was thrown out the window when it was learned that running back Rudi Johnson (hamstring) was unlikely to be available, placing the burden of the ground game on usual third-down back Kenny Watson (60 rushing yards, 1 TD). That means you can expect to see a lot of connections between quarterback Carson Palmer (937 passing yards, 9 TD, 4 INT) and wideouts Chad Johnson (25 receptions, 3 TD) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (29 receptions, 4 TD), the trio that has more or less represented the entire offense through the first three weeks. Johnson leads the NFL in receiving yards (442), and fellow Houshmandzadeh is tops in the league in catches as Week 4 commences. In addition to Johnson, wideout Tab Perry (groin) is unlikely to see action on Monday night.

For all the accolades that the offense is receiving, few might be aware that the Patriots are also tops in the league in total defense (207 yards per game) as Week 4 begins. The New England pass rush has already generated 10 sacks on the year, with outside linebacker Mike Vrabel (18 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and end Jarvis Green (10 tackles, 2.5 sacks) ranking among league leaders in that category. The Patriots have also stifled the running games of the Jets, Chargers, and Bills, with nose tackle Vince Wilfork (7 tackles) and Ty Warren (13 tackles, 1 sack) making plays in the trenches and linebackers Tedy Bruschi (12 tackles) and Adalius Thomas (17 tackles, 1 INT) making plays behind them. The secondary has played well but is looking for a few more big plays, as cornerback Asante Samuel's (6 tackles) interception of Trent Edwards last Sunday ranked as the secondary's first pick of the year.


OVERALL ANALYSIS

Cincinnati rode a great wave of emotion to a win the last time it appeared at home, and Monday night's crowd should be just as vocal as the one that lifted Lewis and company to that win over Baltimore. But emotion can only take a team so far before talent takes over, and New England has a decided talent advantage in this contest. Cincinnati is perhaps the worst candidate in the league to stop the New England passing attack, which should have the Patriots scoring points at will. The Bengals will give the New England secondary problems as well, but short of scoring on every drive, you can't expect Cincinnati to do enough to run with an elite Patriots team for four quarters.