New England/Cincinnati Line

[GamblinMan03]

I think the 7 points is perfect. Cincy is a tough home team and can put up the points to keep them in the game. This will be the toughest test so far this season for the Pats. Like birds said, I think it will be close late and I think either team can win it late.

I will be on Cincy but will wait until the line gets to maybe +7.5.

[birdsfan5]

I would say that 7 is just about right. IMO Cincinnati is going to score enough points to cover here. I see it being 28-28 with 2min to go and Tom drives them down the field for a FG.

[Fish2006]

I say just take the over and don't worry about it. I mean, if you are already gonna be square, at least do so in a way that does not expose you to the BD cover :sm:

... then again, with a 53 total, who the F knows. Clearly they think there are going to be a lot of points on both sides. Might there be a nicely correlated play here taking the under AND NE (or the over AND Cinci) on a parlay card?

[Horfin]

I wish I could answer this question. Every week I try to set my own lines and then look at the lines and see what is up. I unfortunately saw this line before I wanted to. I would say that with NE wins against Buff, SD, and NYJ all by the exact same score of 38-14 and
Cincinnatis 27-20 win vs. Balt, the 52-47 loss at cleveland and the 24-21 loss to Seattle (the last two on the road), I'd say that you couldn't really set the line much higher than 7. The one thing the three NE opponents have in common is their defense is better than their offense (less so for NYJ and as for SD that is true so far this year). That being said, the question is if you can't beat NE with Defense can you beat them with Offense? NE hasn't really faced a true offensive team yet. The closest team is SD and they forgot how to rush and pass until last week. I would not be surprised to see a really low scoring game 20-17 17-14 range. But, also I would not be surprised to see a really high scoring game. You just don't see teams rattling off 38 points or more 4 times in a row. If I had set the line it would have been NE-6 or NE -7, probably nothing more. But unfortunately my opinion is tainted.

[Daws1089]

to be honest, i dont have a clue what i would set this line at to get action on both sides. It seems to me that if their was a double digit home dog that everyone would be all over that. If cincy was +11 or something like that I dont think they would get enough on the pats. So maybe a line like +9 or +9.5 would get some more bettors on cincy. The only thing i can see here is a backdoor cover or the pats experiencing some major injury that opens the door for cincy, but no one can predict an injury. Cincy plays somewhat better at home in the jungle, but it still doesnt justify +7.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I agree, Kevin....I jumped on this game at -6 for 4 Units an hour after Pinnacle put it up last Sunday Night, lol! I don't see how that Cincy defence limits Brady to anything under 40 points.

As for the line....I would have made it 9.5....because people still love the sexy names of Palmer and Johnson, even though they are not an elite football team overall...

[Kevin]

Usually when a line comes out that looks fishy, I jump on the other side. Doing so has really treated me well over the past few years. What looks too good to be true usually is, right?

I find the Patriots line to be extremely low but I won't be jumping on the other side of this one. In fact, I can't hardly help myself from wanting to overplay this game. I won't because I don't have the balls, but I'm still going to make a play at -7 going against my fishy line theory.

Even worse, it "doubley" goes against my theory because I absolutely HATE laying points on a Monday night football game.

Lastly, it "tripley" goes against what I believe in because the public is banging the Pats to the tune of 70%.

Who do I think I am going against 3 principles I so much believe in? Not only am I taking NE at -7 I still want MORE action laying a TD.

<b>My question to you is if you were the oddsmaker, what would you have set this line at?</b>

Call me nutty, but based on what I've seen from both these teams this year, I'd have made this line NE laying -14!

The difference between a winning handicapper and a losing one is the ability to decipher what CAN happen vs. what SHOULD happen. i CAN'T see Cinci staying within a TD with their defense. I've watched every single NE game this year and I just can't see how Cinci can hang.

I think oddsmakers have made a big mistake here.

If this game loses, I will change my avatar to a square for a week. I'll deserve it if it loses because I'm going against everything I believe in handicapping-wise except my gut which I can't seem to overcome. (I have a big gut lol)

What would you have made this line?