New England/Cincinnati Line

[BoilerBacker]

Do you guys really honestly think there was any inkling of a chance of the Bengals opening around a 2 TD HOME DOG on MNF?

Of course not.

With that being said, I do however, believe that the public as a whole is having a HUGE HUGE overreaction to NE beating NYJ (a very weak team this season judging from what I've seen), SD (didn't they also lose to GB....who I'm still not sold on....plus the SD game was at home, in prime time, and NE had something to "prove", and SD has done nada this year) and pretty much the Bills backups (all the starters are hurt).

I think the problem is that "the public" is going on the quality of last year's teams, and not taking into account that NYJ was 10-6 last year, but they seem to suck this year, BUF was average last year, but is worse this year because of rebuilding the entire defense and a google plex of injuries already to guys they were counting on to fill holes left by the departure of many solid veterans, and SD clearly is not the team that dominated last year.

In short, NE has beaten up on 3 teams that have done NOTHING this season.

The Bengals are clearly better than the 3 teams I mentioned above if early season results are any indication....but it seems everyone is pretty much stuck on the fact that they gave up 51 points to the Browns, which sucks, but, they did OK at Seattle and vs Baltimore (on defense).

Now I am not saying the Bengals are better than NE, because they're not. I am saying they are clearly going to be the best team NE has faced this season. Now toss in the HUGE situational advantage they have in this one, trying to knock off the "unbeatable" Patriots at home on MNF. Then add in that for the Bengals, this is pretty much as close to a "must win" as a team can have this early in the year.

My guess is the Bengals show up this week....big time....and give the Brady Bunch all they can handle, and then some.

I definitely wouldn't be shocked if the Bengals win this outright. Not one bit.

Man, Stif....you said it exactly like I would.

Look closely at the two games Cincy played decent defense and throw out the weird Browns game. I think a MNF TD home dog is the only play here....

:glass:

[homedawg]

I don't think anyone gets it. The defense of Cincy is bad....it is not god awful (. The real problem with cincinnati is Special Teams. I have said this time and again. If not for special teams they beat Seattle. If not for special teams they beat Baltimore by more than 14. If not for special teams they probably beat Cleveland. They can out punch any offense. Their defense is built to give the offense a chance to outplay someone, in other words, bend and break, but not break every drive, it works most of the time, but against cleveland....cleveland broke them. The Key is it is the opposite of Baltimore and Tampa Bay when they won their super bowls (and Chicago now). Instead of the defense keeping them in it until the end, the offense keeps them in it and the defense does just enough to keep it close. If you have a bad defense and your offense scores everytime you touch the ball OF COURSE you are going to allow 52 points to a team...you below average players who are tired. It will happen. Lewis learned from that game to slow it down a little to give his defense a chance. The special teams is what has made them 1-2. Cincy could easily be 3-0 and then everyone is potentially pounding Cincy as a 7 point home dog. The teams records don't matter. Cincy is clearly better than SD St L and 18 other teams. Cincinnati is a Bubble team could be in the playoffs could not... but they won't end 2-14 or anything like that.

have you been drinking????

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Cincinnati is a Bubble team could be in the playoffs could not... but they won't end 2-14 or anything like that.

I would agree with that statement.

[Horfin]

I don't think anyone gets it. The defense of Cincy is bad....it is not god awful (. The real problem with cincinnati is Special Teams. I have said this time and again. If not for special teams they beat Seattle. If not for special teams they beat Baltimore by more than 14. If not for special teams they probably beat Cleveland. They can out punch any offense. Their defense is built to give the offense a chance to outplay someone, in other words, bend and break, but not break every drive, it works most of the time, but against cleveland....cleveland broke them. The Key is it is the opposite of Baltimore and Tampa Bay when they won their super bowls (and Chicago now). Instead of the defense keeping them in it until the end, the offense keeps them in it and the defense does just enough to keep it close. If you have a bad defense and your offense scores everytime you touch the ball OF COURSE you are going to allow 52 points to a team...you below average players who are tired. It will happen. Lewis learned from that game to slow it down a little to give his defense a chance. The special teams is what has made them 1-2. Cincy could easily be 3-0 and then everyone is potentially pounding Cincy as a 7 point home dog. The teams records don't matter. Cincy is clearly better than SD St L and 18 other teams. Cincinnati is a Bubble team could be in the playoffs could not... but they won't end 2-14 or anything like that.

[Stifler's Mom]

Also, while Dallas and Indy took care of business....but both were at home, against bad (really bad in the case of St Louis) teams. Yes, Denver is a pretty bad team IMO after what I've seen out of them so far this year. Maybe they should have kept Jake Plummer, lol, but in any case, beating Oakland by 3 and Buffalo by 1, both games they should have lost, isn't too much to get excited about. The 2 better teams they played squashed em with ease.

I'm not making my play based on past opponents. I'd never do that. I was just stating that NE's first 3 opponents suck, so the fact that they blew em all out really shouldn't come as much of a surprise, considering they've already been given the Lombardi Trophy. ****, I don't even know why the hell we're even finishing the season if you'd listen to the media, since apparently no one can touch NE :beerbang:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Yeah....Sif and others have certainly talked me out of hitting NE harder than my original 4 unit play....although I still think it hits easily, I'll stay away from adding on...

:nuts:

[yukoncornelius]

This is a hard game to call because of the past opponents... as of right now it seems there is alot of parity in the NFL this season. Teams are quite different than last year....

With that said, the instinct is to slam the money down on New England... especially when most people (myself included) see Brady connecting with Moss time after time in what seems to be an absolutely lethal combination. On the flipside, every team usually turns it around, the Bengals are better than they've played and I think there is a good chance they finally show up at home MNF.

edit: By the way, I would not be surprised if this moves to NE -9 by tomorrow night. Seems like the majority of people play MNF on monday, after their Sunday games have either done well, or failed lol.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Cincinnati is as bad as St Louis?

No...I don't think anyone is. lol. But NE is better than Dal, and only has to lay 7 (6 in my case), not the 13+ like Dallas did against STL.

[Stifler's Mom]

Yeah....no way I could have backed SD this week....they just plain haven't looked good, and then have to lay 12? Nuts. With those two examples, Buf and KC beat 2 teams that haven't looked very good so far. SD clearly has problems. Many people backed NYJ because of Buf's injuries, not necesarily b/c of a great Jets team. Props to Edwards and Buf.

But on the other hand, NE has looked great...more in the mold of Dallas or Indy, which did cover today....it's not their fault they haven't played teams that people think are "no good", they can't control that, all they control is coming out and blowing people out. Which they have done each week. I see NE pulling an Indy or Dallas this week, and doing what was expected, beating a bad team handily. We'll see. Looking forward to the game.


Bills

Cincinnati is as bad as St Louis?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Yeah....no way I could have backed SD this week....they just plain haven't looked good, and then have to lay 12? Nuts. With those two examples, Buf and KC beat 2 teams that haven't looked very good so far. SD clearly has problems. Many people backed NYJ because of Buf's injuries, not necesarily b/c of a great Jets team. Props to Edwards and Buf.

But on the other hand, NE has looked great...more in the mold of Dallas or Indy, which did cover today....it's not their fault they haven't played teams that people think are "no good", they can't control that, all they control is coming out and blowing people out. Which they have done each week. I see NE pulling an Indy or Dallas this week, and doing what was expected, beating a bad team handily. We'll see. Looking forward to the game.


Bills

[Stifler's Mom]

How impressive is that NE shellacking of SD looking now after they got pounded on their home field by 2 TD's against "****ty" KC of all teams?

So now NE has beaten up 1-3 SD (home), 1-3 Buffalo (home), and 1-3 NYJ (road). Big deal....

In a similar scenario, PIT beat the crap out of 3 straight average to weak teams too (2 of them also at home), then went on the road to face a decent one, and picks up their first big "L" of the season. Not saying this has anything to do with the NE/CIN game, because it doesn't....just that not too many saw ARI pulling the outright "upset" today, not any more than what see the Bengals doing it. It can, and does, happen.

I'm not gonna lie and say the Bungles defense/special teams doesn't concern me, because it does, but I don't think NE is as good as advertised, and for that reason I'm planning on taking any points they'll give me on Monday Night, plus maybe a small piece of ML action as well.

I may eat my words on this one (wouldn't be the first time, lol, but I call em like I see em) and NE could beat Cincinnati something like 38-10 too, but my point was to prove that NE hasn't played anyone when I initially replied to this thread, and I think KC and BUF (for some reason many think NYJ are for some reason good??) have proven my point today.

[Stifler's Mom]

sorry stif, but how can you say cincy is clearly better than san diego? cincy has looked god awful since week 1 and they're lucky to have 1 win.... not saying the chargers have looked any better, but clearly there is nothing "clear" about the situation

I feel that way simply because Cincinnati can score, and they showed some signs of life on defense with the exception of the Cleveland game, being able to force turnovers if nothing else. It must be noted that the Bengals, even when they were winning previous years, never had a shut down defense. They lived and died with aggressive play and forcing the turnover.

SD has done absolutely nothing on either side of the ball. They can't run with LT anymore, Rivers can't beat anyone with his arm without LT running for 100+, and their defense hasn't been very good either. The only offense they were able to stop was that of the pathetic Bears, whom everyone knows has a piss poor offense. SD is in shambles IMO, and Norv Turner is a suck ass coach who doesn't know how to stop the slide.

I am far from a believer in the Bengals, but I'm trying to go off what I've seen this season, and while I believe NE is very good, I don't believe they are as good as they appear, because they've beaten no one yet.

To make a comparison, Pittsburgh has waxed everyone they faced too (CLE, BUF, SF)....yet if this were Pittsburgh coming into Cincy on MNF, there is no way on earth they would be a fave of over a TD. There's no way the teams NE has roughed up are better than the ones Pittsburgh has. If the line WAS set at such, I think it's safe to assume that the public would be ALL OVER the Bengals.

So my point is, that IMO the line is overblown because the public reacts much stronger to New England than anyone else, with maybe the exception of the Colts, who come in a close second.

Funny how the public changes their tune so fast, since they were oh so in love with the Bengals for how long now....and all of a sudden they lose 2 games and they're finished in the public's eyes I guess.

I cannot believe the action is not closer than 83%/17% on this game. I have been wrong before, but it sure looks like the public is taking a long walk off a short pier with NE this Monday night....

[homedawg]

Books opened this game @ 6. they are getting hit at a 5-1 clip, and some books now showing 8 & 9. Obvious play:

[DevilsAdvokt]

I set the line for me on this at -7 1/2


only reason is i asked myself what line would make me second guess my pick....


if i take new england i say what if cinci shows up for big game at home and this is a good shoot out and new england only wins by 7

than if i take cinci and the point i turn around and say this is the new england of new not old with Randy Moss! plus look at that pat def this could easy be 38-13


so i think the makers are spot on IMO cause everytime i make a decision im second guessing myself...

so now if i decide to play this game i am gonna buy some points and bring it to a -6 to feel comfortable with new england,

screw the bung holes they arent worth a lick of my betting money right now... go with pats or stay away IMO


GOOD luck

[rjp]

LOL, I didn't realize you were betting New England. :)

Seeing the opener at 6, you just have to ask yourself one question: "What sharp in the world would bet a road favorite laying 6 on MNF?"

Now in this case I'd say any sharp worth their weight that could bet NE -6 when it opened would be out of their mind not to simply for the middle opportunity that would likely present itself later.

Which brings me to my next question: what number did you get? A 7, I assume?