WNBA Predictions
Indiana Fever at Dallas Wings
New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury
The Clark-less Fever travel to Dallas tonight to play the Wings.
Indiana has played six games this season without their star player, and they have a record of just 2-4 SU when they are sans Caitlin.
On the Rd they’re 1-2, not a good record if you’re looking to play ON them tonight, like I am.
The play looks even worse when you check the line and see they’re not even getting points. They’re a -2′ Fav.
But let’s look closer at those three games.
The first was against Atlanta, who sits in second place in the Eastern Conference, winning 67% of their games at 10-5.
The second loss was against a surprising 8-8 Washington team.
Their lone Rd win came against the 4-10 Chicago Sky, who they beat by 27 points.
Of those three opponents, Atl (10-5), Washington (8-8), and Chicago (4-10), which one closely resembles tonight’s opponent, Dallas (4-12)?
Suddenly, laying two points and a hook doesn’t look too bad.
Let’s add one more to the equation for a play ON the Fever.
Indiana played last night.
Teams that are in game 2 of B2B’s are 5-1 ATS.
Of those six spots, there was only one Rd Fav, back on May 30th when the Liberty were -13 at Washington. They covered by 22 points, making B2B Rd Favs 1-0 ATS.
Do I expect Indiana to win by 20+ points tonight, like NY did as Rd Favs?
Nope.
But I don’t need a blowout; I only need them to win by 3.
Dallas is just 2-5 ATS at Hm this season.
It’s no stretch to expect them to lose again, even against the Clark-less Fever.
If anyone’s looking at the total in the Ind/Dal game, I have some interesting stats I’ll share in my post later today in the PredictEm forum.
For my second play tonight, I’m traveling to Phoenix to ride along with the Liberty.
NY has been off their game lately, losing three of their last five, including an 89-81 loss to the Mercury back home in New York.
In that game, they had the lead in the 4th quarter but collapsed, losing Q4 by getting outscored 16-25.
The loss can be explained by one stat – NY shot 7-31 from three-point range.
That’s just 18% from the third-best three-point shooting team in the league, averaging 37% from downtown.
That number will improve tonight.
New York is 5-2 ATS on the Rd and catching two points tonight.
And . . .
They qualify as a play for my WF2 model.
It has a record of 9-6 overall and 4-2 on Rd teams like the Liberty tonight.
My plays:
Indiana -2′
NY +2
Recap: 0-1
Record: 8-11
Review: It was one of those losses that sticks with you for a while. It’s bugging you as you’re trying to fall asleep. It haunts you when you wake up in the middle of the night. And it’s a slap in the face when it’s the first thought you have waking up the next day.
I had NY/GS Over 161.
I HAD A 61-POINT FIRST QUARTER!
And I couldn’t get over 161??!!
The final two minutes were painful to watch: missed shots, turnovers, and, of course, the obligatory WNBA shot clock violations.
The game landed on 159.
Ugh.
