Minnesota Lynx at Chicago Sky Predictions
Total and Prop Bet
WNBA Monday, July 14
From last Monday’s article:
“Tonight by the way is a Monday, a day that WNBA teams rarely play on.
Monday, the day that most people who have jobs hate the most.
Monday, the day after partying on the weekend, the day that teams are too lazy/uninspired to play a tight defense?”
There’s only been four Monday games all season long.
It seems girls just don’t like playing on Mondays (actually it’s probably because of attendance problems, low turnout.)
The record on Overs is 3-1.
Last Monday, I recommended a play on Golden State at Atlanta over 158.
They scored 171, covering the number by double digits.
I have three reasons for buying Min/Chi Over tonight:
- As noted above, it’s a Monday game and Mondays are 3-1 to the over, 75%
- Minnesota is a Double Digit Favorite tonight, laying 10′ on the Rd.
DD Rd Favs are 11-5 to the Over, 68%. - My model for picking totals, T1, says this game will stay Under. The record for T1 on Unders is 8-11, good for a 58% Fade. And any one of my handicap and methods that’s 58% or better is good enough to get my money.
Yes, I started the month 0-3 on using Minnesota on sides and/or totals.
I was starting to think they may be my “Nemesis team” for this season, you know, the one that loses when you bet ON them and wins when you bet AGAINST them, and the game goes Over when you bet the Under and Under when you bet the Over.
But I’ve hit my last two plays using them, forum plays, laying seven on July 10th and the Over against today’s opponent, Chicago, on July 12th.
H2H these teams are 1-1 on the Over this season.
In the game that stayed Under, both teams shot approximately 5% below their season FG average and the Over missed by six points. All I need tonight is for both of them to play to their season averages.
I also bought one prop play for tonight, taking Kamilla Cardoso over 11′ points for Chicago.
She’s back, she’s healthy, and if she gets the 30+ minutes of playing time that I expect, she’ll get tonight, then 11′ is a soft number.
Reese has been on a tear lately and Minnesota’s defensive game plan will be focusing on her which should leave Cardoso with some easy points from under the bucket.
My plays:
Min/Chi Ov 161′
Cardoso Ov 11′ points, -127
Recap: 1-0
Record: 15-15
Review: I had Brittney Griner Over 4′ rebounds.
She had 8.
The books opened her at 4′, -135 in her next game too, and I jumped all over it for a play in the PredictEm forum. Money must have poured in ‘cuz they raised her number to 5’ by tip off.
She grabbed 10, more than doubling the number I bought.
Be sure to check the forum for additional plays.
I should have at least one more posted for tonight’s games.
