UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 Picks
When: Saturday, July 19, 2025
Where: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: PPV
UFC 318 features a top-end main event featuring two of the bigger names from the featherweight and lightweight divisions, as former champions Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier get it on for a third time. The history between these two longtime standouts runs deep, with Poirier submitting Holloway back in 2012 and then beating him again by decision in 2019 for interim lightweight belt. Both men are getting up there in age with some mixed results lately, while each is still among the most dangerous at or around their weight. Let’s break this one down!
Fight Analysis
Max Holloway, 26-8 (12 KOs, 2 Submissions), (-112) vs. Dustin Poirier, 30-9 (15 KOs, 8 Submissions), (-108)—Odds by Bovada
Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier will duke it out for Holloway’s symbolic BMF belt in the UFC 318 main event on July 19. A longtime featherweight champion who continues to thrive at a high level, the 33-year-old Holloway is coming off a loss to supreme champion and unbeaten Ilia Topuria in October of 2024, but had won three fights leading into that, most notably that unforgettable last-second KO of Justin Gaethje. Poirier, meanwhile, is now 36, coming off a June ’24 choke-loss to then-lightweight champ Islam Makhachev. Two fights before that, he lost to the aforementioned Gaethje. Who should we get behind in this match?
On one hand, Holloway has lost twice to this man. They were at different junctures in each man’s career, so I’m not sure those previous battles serve as a guiding light. Their first fight saw each man in a more-formative stage, while Holloway was a less of an acclimated 155-pounder when they met in ’19. I’d also fathom a guess that out of the two, Holloway might have a little more left in the tank. It’s not all due to him being 3 years younger because, in terms of mileage, it’s hard to identify a fighter who has absorbed more of it than Holloway. But he is still very viable, and while maybe not able to beat this newer wave of champs like Topuria, he is still a handful.
Not to be hard on Poirier for his recent results, as there is no shame in losing to Makhachev, but he has maybe slowed down a bit since his second win over Conor McGregor in 2021. This is being billed as Poirier’s retirement fight, and therein lies perhaps the trickiest part of this analysis. When fighters with one foot out the door are in competitive matchups in what is announced as their final fight, I’m not sure the results are usually that wonderful. This sport doesn’t bow to sentimentality.
I tend to favor active fighters in fights where their career is on the line and headed somewhere, as opposed to a fighter having a swan song. It’s just a different headspace that favors the non-retiring fighter, as it’s easier to absorb a loss that leads into retirement than a loss that leads back into a career, especially at this stage. At the same time, I can’t help but think maybe I shouldn’t be holding this against Poirier. A prideful fighter who is having his finale in his home state, I think, underselling him could be a mistake. He’s a proud Louisianan, and this is his first time in his home state since becoming a championship-caliber fighter. I think that homefield edge, the knowledge that he’s beaten this man twice, and the light at the end of the tunnel now being in plain sight could have an energizing effect on Poirier.
In the end, it’s an evenly matched contest between two longtime UFC legends. Poirier has been in the UFC since 2011, and Holloway joined a year later, being greeted in losing fashion by Poirier. Still, Poirier has been in four title fights, as opposed to ten for Holloway. When it comes to the five-round distance, this is an area in which Holloway thrives, though Poirier has some notable late stoppages to his credit, as well.
The closeness of the odds in this fight, which is a veritable pick-‘em, attests to the difficulty in picking a winner. It’s like almost every point you ponder leads to a contrasting view. On one hand, Poirier seems to be in slightly worse form, but he has beaten Holloway twice. Holloway looked spent against Topuria, but would Poirier have done any better? Poirier is on his way out, and that’s never good, but he’s getting a home-fight against a former victim, and it’s actually difficult not to envision a heartfelt performance on his part.
I’m trying hard not to over-emphasize the two Poirier wins over Holloway. The second fight was pretty close, and beating Holloway three times is not easy. And the common-opponent theory, where Holloway knocked out a guy in Gaethje, who knocked out Poirier, is another shaky measuring stick to use. And even if using those standards, they would maybe cancel out. For me, their respective results against Gaethje might even hold more meaning than their previous track records against each other.
You’d think in a closely-matched fight like this that seems to have a decent chance of going the distance, Poirier would be in good shape with this fight in his home state getting the support of the crowd. Again, it’s sometimes surprising how unsentimental this sport can be, and there’s a chance the UFC wants Holloway to win more, being that he has future fights coming up with the company. In either event, I suspect Holloway has a little more left under the hood and that we will see that manifest when this fight gets into the thick of the fourth and fifth rounds. I’m going with Max Holloway.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Max Holloway at -112 betting odds. I feel the Bovada betting line has some appeal with Holloway being the slightly fresher fighter, even though there are untold miles on his odometer. Despite some shaky history with Poirier and this being in enemy territory, I picture a high-energy performance from Holloway, who is attempting to remain in the picture for big upcoming fights.
