Texas A&M (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday, September 13th, 7:30 PM
Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN
TV: NBC
Point Spread: TX A&M +6.5 / ND -6.5 (Learn to bet at reduced odds!)
Over/Under Total: 50
Notre Dame plays host to Texas A&M on Saturday night in South Bend for a primetime matchup of top 20 teams with BCS playoff implications. While the Aggies will be looking to start 3-0 before beginning their always tough SEC schedule, the Irish are hoping to get their season back on track after dropping their opener to Miami two weeks ago.
WHERE’S THE LOVE
One of the biggest questions for Notre Dame after the loss to the Hurricanes was the use, or lack thereof, in the play calling for star running back Jeremiyah Love. The Heisman trophy candidate had just 10 carries in the game against Miami, which rightfully raised eyebrows considering he is the best player on their offense and getting him readily involved has always proven successful in the past as the Irish are 6-0 when Love gets over eleven carries and 15-1 when he scores a touchdown. Jadarian Price is undoubtedly a skilled backup, would start on many other college football teams, and made the most of his time on the field against the Canes, but getting Love specifically involved early and often against the Aggies will likely be a top priority for offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock.
LOSSES UP FRONT
Another reason that Notre Dame will focus on the running game are the heavy losses suffered up front by the Aggies in the offseason. A&M had only one defensive lineman drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL draft in the last 22 years (Myles Garrett) before a whopping three were chosen back in April, and replenishing such talent isn’t an easy process, no matter how much they pay in College Station. UTSA’s Robert Henry ran for 177 yards and two scores against the Aggies in week one, and Utah State’s starters averaged over 4 yards per carry against the defense in week two, which lends toward the thinking that both Love and Price could be in for a productive night on Saturday.
PROMISING RIDE
Having gone through the transfer portal in recent years for their opening day starter at the quarterback position, it was a definite positive sign to see the performance of homegrown talent C.J Carr in his first game as the signal caller for Notre Dame. The redshirt
freshman threw for two touchdowns and ran for another score against Miami and seemed to get better as the game went on in the hostile, Hard Rock Stadium environment. A successful rushing attack would make things that much easier for Carr to open up the field in the passing game, as the team will look to get one of its better playmakers through the air, actually involved this time around.
NOT SO GREATHOUSE
After coming on strong at the end of last season, especially in the BCS playoffs, Notre Dame wide receiver Jaden Greathouse was expected to be a featured part of the passing game entering the year, but instead had just three targets against Miami, which resulted in zero receptions. The team is expected to put an emphasis on getting him more involved while continuing to rely on experienced wideout Jordan Faison and tight end safety valve Eli Raridon, both of whom had five receptions apiece in the season opener. Transfer Malachi Fields should see some attention as well, and will hope to play with more consistency after recording just three catches along with a lost fumble in week one. All of the targets through the air are undoubtedly in for a test against an Aggies defensive backfield that returns plenty of experience and ranks as one of the best in the country.
REED THE ROOM
On the other side of the field, the Texas A&M offense will be led by quarterback Marcel Reed, who is still expected to start despite leaving in the 3rd quarter of last week’s game against Utah State due to injury. At that point, the game was already in hand, and Reed didn’t appear on the Aggies’ injury report this week, so it looks as though any legit setback was avoided. Reed has started the season with great efficiency, throwing seven touchdowns with zero interceptions while rushing for an additional score on the ground. This is certainly a good sign for A&M fans, as when Reed avoids turnovers, it seems to have a direct effect in the standings, with the team having gone 1-5 in the six games over his career when throwing an interception. Both defenses he has faced this season ranked below 120th in passing yards allowed a season ago, so one of the more interesting subplots for Saturday will be to see how the Aggie quarterback can do against the vast step up in competition.
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TRUST IN TRANSFERS
Considering the fact that their top five in receptions were lost from a season ago, head coach Mike Elko was smart to hit the target transfer portal in hopes of upgrading the options for Marcel Reed in the passing game. Things have worked out well so far, with top finds KC Concepcion and Mario Craver both leading the way amongst the receivers in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, with each having caught three apiece. Notre Dame cornerback Christian Gray will provide the biggest matchup challenge for the Aggies’ passing game, though there isn’t that much of a letdown in talent after him amongst his backfield teammates; cornerback Leonard Moore and safeties Adon Shuler and Jalen Stroman.
MOSS THE BOSS
The Aggies’ running game is led by senior Le’Veon Moss, who was riding a seven-touchdowns-in-three-games streak last year before injuring his leg and being forced to miss the remainder of the season. The team clearly benefits when he is able to get involved, as they are 9-0 in his A&M career when he rushes for over 70 yards and 5-1 over the last six games in which he has scored a touchdown. Despite falling down by multiple scores against Miami, the Irish were still able to hold their opponents’ running game to just three yards per carry and will undoubtedly provide Moss’s toughest test of the season thus far.
AGAINST THE SPREAD TRENDS
Texas A&M is 0-7 in their last seven games versus the number and have covered once in their previous seven games as a road underdog. Notre Dame is 9-4 in their previous 13 games ATS and 19-5-1 in their last 25 against power five conference teams.
PICK AND WHY
Despite being one of the top five teams in college football in NIL money spent and previously one of the highest programs to spend on non-NIL money for athletes, A&M has struggled of late to put together a team that can do anything of substance on the road, and it’s not just against quality competition. Yes, the Aggies are 0-13 in their last thirteen away games against ranked opponents, but even more damning, a paltry 2-12 in their last 14 road matchups overall. And with all that in mind, they now have to travel to play at South Bend, where the Irish have won 45 of their last 50 games. And Notre Dame is coming off a bye, a situation in which they are 22-3 over their last 25 and have been especially dominant under head coach Marcus Freeman, where they have gone 5-0 with an average score of 46-9.
The Fighting Irish desperately need this game, as a 0-2 start against easily the best competition they will face all season could very well be an early nail in the coffin to their BCS Playoff hopes. Texas A&M clearly has an issue playing on the road, and in the hostile late-night environment of Notre Dame Stadium, I am backing the home team to get things back on track with a win and cover under the lights on Saturday.
Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame -6.5
