I can’t say I’m loving this pick, but I’ve got a system spot that says KC will win this one, so I have to go with the Chiefs.
I have a couple of reasons for not liking this bet.
First, I bet against the Chiefs the last time I did an article on the NFL two weeks ago. KC dominated the Ravens the entire game, and I got tagged with a loss. So my reading/analysis of the Chiefs may not be too good.
Second, I’m betting against one of the best teams in the league AND I’m using a team with a losing record. Detroit is 4-1 SU, KC is 2-3.
And I get no help from the ATS records either, as they’re the same, Det 4-1, KC 2-3.
Maybe I can get a favorable stat with the Hm/Rd breakdown of their records?
Nope.
The Lions on the Rd are 2-1 SU and ATS, and KC is 1-2 at Hm, SU and ATS.
How about a look at conference play, Detroit vs the AFC, and KC versus the NFC.
Maybe I can find some relief for my play there?
Again, nope.
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last six against AFC opponents, and Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last five against NFC opponents.
How about recent form, any reason to possibly like the Chiefs from this angle?
Nope again.
Detroit is coming in off a double-digit win over the Bengals, and it was on the road like this one (in fact, Detroit has won four straight, three of them against AFC opponents like today).
KC is coming into this one off a horrible last-minute loss to Jacksonville in a game they should have won. Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence literally fell to the ground, got up, and ran for a game-winning touchdown with just 23 seconds left in the game. (How embarrassing was that for the KC defense?)
So, with all of that bad mojo, KC is actually the favorite??!!
Someone remind me – WHY am I betting the Chiefs in this game?
Oh yeah, a system spot.
My handicapping model WF1 says the Chiefs are the Wrong Favorite (and I kind of have to agree with it.)
BUT . . .
WF1 is 11-17 overall in the NFL.
And when it’s a Rd team the record stands at just 8-13, a 62% Fade.
Also fresh in my mind is that I used this same model for a play on the final game on the college card yesterday, taking Hawaii +1.
Final score?
Rainbow Warriors 44, the other guys 26.
So I’m coming back with it on the final game of the NFL card today.
My gut feel tells me the Chiefs are in for a rough time Sunday night, but fresh in my memory is that I thought they were in for a rough time against the Ravens, too, and they kicked some Baltimore ass in that game.
I’m not loving it, but my model says take the Chiefs, so my buy is . . .
KC – 2′
Record: 1-3
(I’ll have at least one play in the NFL forum, check back in a little bit.)
