USC Trojans (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday, October 18th, 7:30 PM
Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN
TV: NBC
Point Spread: USC +9.5 ND -9.5
Over/Under Total: 61
The battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh comes to South Bend on Saturday when Notre Dame hosts USC in the 96th game in their storied rivalry. The Irish hold a 52-38-5 all-time advantage, which includes wins in six of the last seven games and five straight victories at Notre Dame Stadium.
TROJAN TASK
USC enters the game with plenty of momentum after taking down Michigan a week ago and now finds themselves sitting at third in the Big Ten with only undefeated Indiana and Ohio State ahead of them. The Trojans’ only loss of the season was by two points to Illinois on a last-second field goal, and after this week, they will be favored in all of their remaining games except for a November trip to Eugene to take on Oregon. They may be on the outside looking in and as of now for a spot in the Big Ten championship game, but in a college football season that has been anything but predictable, USC could legitimately Trojan horse their way into conference title contention if they are able to win out.
WAYMOND WAYLAID
The USC victory against Michigan certainly did not come without a cost, as they lost their top two running backs to injury, with Waymond Jordan out for multiple weeks and Eli Sanders gone for the entire season. Thankfully, all hope is not lost as they were still able to run for over 200 yards as a team, even with the double backfield injury and missing two offensive line starters. The game also served as a catapult into the national spotlight for walk-on freshman King Miller, who ran for over 150 yards and also got into the endzone for his third touchdown of the season. USC has the second-ranked offense nationally in passing and total yards per game, while also coming in at third in scoring, and part of the reason for that success is their equal ability to beat teams both on the ground and through the air. That can only continue if Miller and Bryan Jackson are able to adequately fill the injured shoes of Jordan and Sanders and give quarterback Jayden Maiava the time he needs to continue picking apart opposing defenses.
MAIAVA MANIA
Ever since taking over the starting quarterback position in mid-November last year for the Trojans, Jayden Maiava has led his team to an 8-2 record and made it abundantly clear he is the answer at quarterback for Lincoln Riley’s squad. This season, he has completed over 70 percent of his passes while throwing for thirteen touchdowns compared to just two interceptions and rushing for an additional four scores on the ground. His importance to the offense is obviously increased with the loss of their top two running backs on the depth chart, and with the additional weight of the offense on his shoulders, he will have his work cut out for him against a ball-hawking Notre Dame defense that is 4th in the country in takeaways with eleven.
COBRA MAKAI
Maiava’s top target in the Trojans’ passing game is wideout Makai Lemon, who currently is second nationally in receiving yards and first in the Big Ten in receptions. The junior wideout has more than double the yards, catches, and receiving touchdowns of the next best receiver on the team, and with those stats will also receive the lion’s share of attention from the Irish defense when it comes to slowing down the USC passing attack. Ja’Kobi Lane is the second leading receiver on the team and should see any spill down targets with the focus on Lemon as the fellow junior continues to look for some of the momentum from a season ago when he scored double-digit touchdowns.
BYE THEN FIVE
For Notre Dame, the mission remains clear: if they want to have any chance of getting back into BCS Playoff contention, they have to win out, starting with this weekend against USC. After their upcoming bye, they end with three road trips to play ACC teams (Boston College, Pittsburgh, Stanford), along with hosting Navy and Syracuse. They have already moved up to thirteenth in the rankings despite those early-season losses to Miami and Texas A&M, and with a majority of the teams in front of them having a much harder remaining schedule, the Irish truly control their own destiny when it comes to their postseason play.
WHOLE LOTTA LOVE
Notre Dame’s backfield continues to produce as a weekly highlight reel thanks to Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Love’s combination of power, speed and athleticism along with an innate ability to get into the endzone (he has scored at least one touchdown in 18 of his last 19 regular season games) are the primary reasons why he is arguably the top running back candidate in next year’s NFL Draft, but Price can certainly not be ignored as he routinely makes opposing defenses pay when they take the focus off the backfield when Love is comes out. USC’s defense has been a lot stronger against the run (28th) than pass (102nd), and it’s easy to imagine them stacking the box to stop Love and Price, which will put that much more importance on Irish quarterback CJ Carr.
CARR PARTS
The Notre Dame signal caller is coming off his lowest-rated performance of the season, though thankfully, it didn’t matter much against the well overmatched Wolfpack. Much like his counterpart, Maiava across the field, Carr has been efficient this season with 13 touchdowns compared to only three interceptions. However, CJ did throw a pick in both games against ranked opponents so far this season and will have to be on high alert this Saturday with safety Bishop Fitzgerald and his NCAA-leading five interceptions awaiting him.
The top targets for Carr in the passing game are receivers Jordan Faison, Malachi Fields, and Will Pauling, along with tight end Eli Raridon. Faison is the team leader in receptions and yards, while Pauling has come on strong of late with touchdowns in three straight contests, while also posting over 100 yards receiving a week ago for the first time in 34 regular-season games. All four should be see plenty of action on Saturday against the Trojans, as of the five matchups this weekend involving ranked opponents, the Shillelagh showdown is the only one with an over/under higher than 60 points, which should lead to a fun and exciting end to what lines up to be another great day of college football.
THE FINAL DECISION
If going by recent history, the easy choice on Saturday would be Notre Dame. They have had a clear upper hand in the series against USC of late while the Trojans have continued to struggle both on the road and against quality competition, having gone 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 away games, 4-15 versus the number in their previous 19 games as a road underdog and 2-7 straight up in their last nine matchups against ranked opponents.
All of that said, I am taking the Trojans and the points. They have the offense to keep up with the Irish on the scoreboard, and the touchdown head start with the points is just too much to pass up for what I expect to be a close matchup throughout on Saturday night in South Bend.
Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: USC +9.5
