Joseph Parker (36-3, 24 KOs) vs. Fabio Wardley (19-0-1, 18 KOs)
When: Saturday, October 25, 2025
Where: O2 Arena, Greenwich, London, England
TV: DAZN
Weight Class: Heavyweights: 12 Rounds
Betting Odds: Joseph Parker (-435), Fabio Wardley (+290)— Odds by Bovada
Fight Analysis:
Joseph Parker battles undefeated KO artist Fabio Wardley in a big heavyweight bout in London on the 25th. The winner of this fight will get a shot at undisputed champion Oleksandr Usyk, making this a fight with a lot at stake. It’s almost hard to believe Parker is still only 33, a longtime stalwart in this division who has taken on the best and is in the midst of a serious career revival with some huge wins of late. Wardley, 30, is getting his first taste of the big-time and hopes to crash the gates of the elite with what would be a giant win in this spot.
Parker was on a big roll over a decade ago, winning a piece of the belt and racking up some quality defenses. Losses to Anthony Joshua, Dillian Whyte, and, later, Joe Joyce seemed to put Parker on the precipice of extinction. But Parker kept racking up wins, and his latest run is really awe-inspiring. First, he scored an upset by beating former champ Deontay Wilder, outboxing the KO artist and getting a clear win. He then twice rose from the canvas to beat dangerous contender Zhilei Zhang. Then, in his last outing, he stopped Martin Bakole in the second round, completing a comeback where a lot of people now think he’s the most compelling and deserving challenger to Usyk’s throne.
It has been an odd career trajectory for Parker. He won the WBO title at a young age and, despite some early promise, fell into disfavor with some tepid showings. His failings to Joshua, Whyte, and especially Joyce seemed to confirm what the naysayers always said. And to assume that Parker was spoiled goods following his defeat to Joyce certainly seemed like a solid bet at the time. For him to rise from the ashes with this series of wins was really unexpected.
It might seem like a tall task for the relatively unproven Wardley. He gets this in his home country, in an arena where he has fought many times. That comfort level can go a long way. He has what you would like to see from your underdogs—a big punch and a sky-high KO percentage. He fought a draw with former English Olympic medalist Frazer Clarke, winning by stoppage in the rematch. That led to a big showdown with unbeaten Justis Huni, where Wardley was outboxed for much of the fight before landing the big punch late for the fight-saving KO.
And that’s the thing about Wardley—he can really whip that right hand in there with great speed, suddenness, and fight-ending consequences. That makes him a big threat against a guy in Parker who is durable, but not impervious to power. But alas, Wardley is highly imperfect, and we saw him get outboxed by Clarke in spots in their first fight, while also being schooled in part by Huni before Wardley dropped the hammer. All in all, however, there are some aspects about Wardley that are appealing in this fight. He can take it. He has already been tested a little bit and never folded. He has nice size at 6-foot-5 and has shown he has some staying power and can perform late in a fight. And no matter what befalls him, he’s never out of it with the power he can bring to the table.
And who knows? Maybe there is a slight mirage angle to Parker’s recent resurgence. While it would be wrong not to give him a lot of credit for his resolve, the fact is that Deontay Wilder was on his way out when Parker beat him. Zhang is an imperfect contender, a hulking and sometimes-glacial fighter of advanced age who still put Parker down twice. And Bakole was brought in on very short notice and was clearly out of sorts and not interested in soldiering through much resistance. In this fight, Parker will be given no such breaks, as he is taking on an ambitious younger fighter who has had time to prepare and has a lot on the line.
And when you look at the guys who have previously troubled Parker, with Joshua, Whyte, and Joyce, you’re looking at a certain type. First, they’re all British, which is odd in itself. All of Parker’s losses were in the UK, with one of them coming in this very arena. And all of the guys who beat Parker had punching power as their main calling card, just as Wardley does. So, if anything else, at least Wardley’s big shot is coming in conditions that have previously caused Parker to struggle.
Still, to take Wardley is a little bit of a flyer at this point. The conditions, setting, and his punching power alone make him a worthwhile consideration at this price. Parker is on a big old run, but is far from invulnerable. And maybe this run he is on has made him appear more fearsome than what is really the case. But his regular baseline of sound boxing, durability, and over a decade of seasoning at the top levels make him a level of fighter that is beyond anything Wardley has ever seen. And with the extra size Parker now carries, that power of his has been making more of an impact than it used to in his younger years. I see Parker using his experience and having Wardley in bad shape going into the latter rounds, where he either wins by late stoppage or by decision going away. I’ll take Parker.
My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting on Joseph Parker at -435 betting odds. Wardley has youth, size, and power while fighting in his home country. But in this context, his deficits in experience, boxing skills, and overall dependability and bankability make him at best a fanciful underdog with a giant task before him.
