Bryan Bash isn’t buying the market’s trap line in San Francisco. The Warriors just smoked the Lakers, and he’s calling out the oddsmakers for disrespecting a team that looks locked in from the jump.
The Setup: Nuggets at Warriors
This line’s a joke. The Warriors are laying just 1.5 points at home against a Nuggets team that hasn’t played a game yet while Golden State is coming off a statement 119-109 road win over the Lakers? That’s the market begging you to take Denver, and I’m not buying what they’re selling.
Golden State just torched the Lakers with Jimmy Butler going perfect from the line (16-of-16) and Jonathan Kuminga looking like he finally figured it out with 17 points and 9 rebounds. The Warriors are averaging 119 points per game early on, shooting 48.7% from the field and an absurd 42.5% from three. Meanwhile, Denver’s sitting on the sidelines talking about championship aspirations but showing us absolutely nothing on the court yet.
The books know something here – they’re practically giving away points on a Warriors team that just showed they’re ready to roll. Sharp money knows what’s up here, and I’m hammering this number before it moves.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: October 23, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco
- Spread: Warriors -1.5
- Total: 233 points
- Moneyline: Available but not listed
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
This number screams trap, but not the way you think. The market’s disrespecting Golden State here because everyone’s still stuck on last year’s narrative. The Warriors shot 119 points against the Lakers with Butler controlling the tempo and Curry hitting that dagger three from 35 feet out like it was a layup.
Look at the efficiency numbers – Golden State’s shooting 59.6% effective field goal percentage and getting to the line at a 37.2% rate. That’s elite offense clicking on all cylinders. They’re averaging 29 assists per game with a 1.53 assist-to-turnover ratio, which tells me they’re moving the ball and taking care of business.
The public’s all over Denver because of the Jokic factor and their championship pedigree, but that’s exactly the spot where the Nuggets burn you. They haven’t played a game yet while the Warriors just hung 119 on a Lakers team with Luka Doncic dropping 43 points. The market psychology here is textbook – fade the big name that hasn’t shown up yet, ride the team that’s already in mid-season form.
Denver Nuggets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Here’s what we’re working with on Denver – a whole lot of questions and not many answers. Sure, Nikola Jokic just had one of the most dominant statistical seasons in NBA history, averaging that triple-double at 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists. The man’s a walking cheat code, no argument there.
But here’s the reality check: They fired their coach and GM with three games left in the regular season last year. That’s not championship stability, that’s chaos. They added Cameron Johnson and Tim Hardaway Jr. for shooting, brought back Bruce Brown, and got Jonas Valanciunas to back up Jokic. On paper, it looks good.
The problem? They haven’t played together yet. Chemistry matters in October, and the Nuggets are starting from scratch while the Warriors already have their system humming. I’ve seen this movie before – talented team with new pieces gets overhyped early while the veteran squad with continuity comes out swinging.
Golden State Warriors Breakdown: The Other Side
The Warriors just put on a clinic against the Lakers, and the numbers back it up. Butler went 16-of-16 from the free throw line and finished with 31 points, showing exactly why they traded for him last February. That stability and ability to get to the line transformed this offense.
Kuminga’s the x-factor here – 17 points, 9 rebounds, and 6 assists in the opener while shooting 4-of-6 from three. Steve Kerr said he’s “really, really matured,” and you could see it on the court. When your young guys are stepping up and your veterans are locked in, that’s a dangerous combination.
The Warriors averaged 119 points in their opener with a balanced attack – five guys in double figures. They’re shooting 59.6% effective field goal percentage, which is elite efficiency. With Curry, Green, and Butler all healthy and Kuminga taking that next step, this isn’t last year’s inconsistent Warriors team.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This comes down to pace and execution, and Golden State holds all the cards. The Warriors are averaging 29 assists per game with that 1.53 assist-to-turnover ratio – they’re taking care of the ball and creating great shots. Denver’s going to lean heavily on Jokic, but even he can’t single-handedly match a Warriors offense that’s firing on all cylinders.
The free throw disparity is going to be massive. Golden State shot 29 free throws in their opener while forcing opponents into 21 fouls per game. Butler’s going to attack the rim, and with Denver still figuring out their rotations and chemistry, they’re going to foul.
Home court at Chase Center matters too. The Warriors went 24-17 at home last season, and this crowd is going to be juiced for the home opener. Denver’s talented, but they’re walking into a buzzsaw environment against a team that’s already in playoff form. The Warriors’ 42.5% three-point shooting early on against the Lakers isn’t a fluke – they’ve got multiple guys who can light you up from deep.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
Load up on this before the line shifts. The Warriors are getting disrespected at home, and I’m taking Golden State -1.5 with confidence. Butler’s control, Kuminga’s emergence, and this offense clicking at 119 points per game against quality competition tells me everything I need to know.
Denver’s going to be good this season, no doubt. But October 23rd isn’t their night. The Warriors have continuity, chemistry, and home court advantage against a team playing their first game together. That 59.6% effective field goal percentage isn’t sustainable long-term, but it’s exactly what you want backing your bet in Week 1.
BASH’S BEST BET: Warriors -1.5 – The market’s sleeping on a team that just torched the Lakers, and I’m not missing this gift.
