Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-2 SU, 3-3-1 ATS) vs. Boston College Eagles (1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday, November 1st, 3:30 PM
Where: Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, MA
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: ND -28 / BC+28
Over/Under Total: 56.5
Two teams going in opposite directions meet on Saturday when Boston College plays host to Notre Dame in Chestnut Hill. The Fighting Irish have dominated the series in recent history, not only winning the last nine games in a row but doing so especially of late in grand fashion, with an average winning margin of 30 points per game in the last four and having won by at least 14 points in each of the last four in Massachusetts.
KILLED BILLS
BC head coach Bill O’Brien had a good start to his ACC tenure with a winning record in his initial season, but much like the other Bill from the Patriots coaching tree, he has fallen on hard times in 2025. Now sitting with just one victory in his second year with the Eagles, which was against lowly FCS-level Fordham, the coaching seat continues to get hotter with each passing week for O’Brien.
The transition between coaching at the amateur and pro levels has not gone well for many over the past couple of decades with some struggling when jumping to the NFL level (Urban Meyer, Matt Rhule, Kliff Kingsbury, Lane Kiffin, Nick Saban, Steve Spurrier), others when switching to the NCAA (Herm Edwards, Jerry Glanville) and another having to flee back to the pros to avoid punishment after only finding college success because he cheated (Jim Harbaugh).
LAYING AN EGG
Things don’t look to get much easier for O’Brien in November as his team will be substantial underdogs in three of their games (Notre Dame, SMU, and Georgia Tech) and will be getting at least a touchdown in their finale at Syracuse. The loss to Connecticut was especially tough as it was the second defeat at the hands of the Huskies in the last three times the two have played, meaning the Eagles aren’t even the best college football team in New England anymore. And as bad as fellow in-state cellar dweller UMass has been since elevating to the FBS level at football, they still have the same amount of ACC championships (or formerly even outright Big East titles) as BC does with zero.
GROUNDED
The Eagles backfield has unquestioned talent between Turbo Richard and Jordan MacDonald, but the BC running game still ranks just 125th nationally thanks to an average of only 102 yards per game. Richard leads the team with five rushing touchdowns, though he is also the only one with more than one score on the ground this season. This is made all the more unfortunate by the fact that he was injured two weeks ago, missed their game against Louisville, and remains questionable for Saturday. If he is unable to go, then MacDonald will move to the front of the line for carries, and he has done well enough so far this season as the backup to Richard with over 300 yards rushing. Whoever gets the ball will face a strong test against a Notre Dame defense that is 17th against the run and has allowed just two touchdowns on the ground over their last 22 quarters.
INTO THE GRAY
After back-to-back weeks with only one offensive touchdown in games against Clemson and Pitt, Bill O’Brien had had enough and made a change at the quarterback position. Out was Dylan Lonergan, and in went Grayson James, who played some last year for the Eagles after originally being part of the FIU Panthers football program. The offense showed more life under James in the games since, but both ended in losses, and now he has the task of trying to trade points against a high-scoring Notre Dame squad that averages just under 40 points per game. Not the easiest undertaking for James, especially considering his offense ranks 124th in giveaways, and the Irish defense is 3rd nationally in takeaways with thirteen.
STRONG BOND
The first look for James in the passing game will assuredly be to wide receiver Lewis Bond, whose 56 receptions rank as the fifth most in the country and are also more than double the amount of any other wideout on the Eagles. Even with all the activity through the air, Bond’s touchdown last week was his first of the entire season, and he will need to become more redzone relevant for his team to find some success in their final month of games.
Reed Harris is the starter at wide receiver opposite Bond, and despite being second amongst his position mates in catching categories, has scored just one touchdown over the past five games. He, along with tight ends James Franklin and Kaelan Chudzinski, should get the spillover of what is left for targets after what promises to be an attention-heavy afternoon for Bond.
PLAYOFF PUSH
As Boston College enters the final month of the season with a mix of hoping to build momentum for next year while also just playing out the string until a disastrous campaign mercifully ends, Notre Dame has a clear focus on a spot in the BCS Playoffs. They will no doubt have to win out in their remaining five games to have a chance but should at least find themselves double digit favorites in each, which is much different than those teams directly in front of them in the rankings (BYU still has road trips against ranked opponents Texas Tech and Cincinnati, Vanderbilt has road games against Texas and Tennessee and Georgia Tech ends with Pittsburgh and Georgia).
FROM SOUTH BEND WITH LOVE
The heart of the Notre Dame offense continues to be the backfield of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Both have rushed for over 500 yards, average more than 6 yards per carry, and have combined to score 21 touchdowns. Love was already the highest rated running back in his draft class and used their game before the bye against USC as his personal highlight reel with a career best 228 yards rushing and also getting into the endzone to continue his scoring run of touchdowns in 19 of his last 20 regular season games. Both Love and Price are safe bets to post big numbers on Saturday, considering Boston College ranks 99th in rushing yards allowed per game, which unfortunately for them, is their highest rated major defense category as they are 110th against the run and in total yards along with a particularly alarming 128th in scoring, letting up an average of just under 35 points per game.
TUNE UP
Notre Dame’s bye week came at a good time for quarterback CJ Carr, who is in the midst of a mild slump after posting his lowest QBR-rated games of the season in their last two against NC State and USC. In both of those matchups, he struggled with accuracy, throwing an interception in each and completing less than 62% of his passes for the first time all year. The extra week of practice, along with facing the Eagles’ paltry pass defense, should give Carr the opportunity he needs to end the plateau and get things back on the right track.
CARR PARTS
Only five Fighting Irish players have more than five receptions on the season: receivers Jordan Faison, Malachi Fields, and Will Pauling, tight end Eli Raridon, and running back Jeremiyah Love. Faison is the clear team leader in catches and yards, and though Pauling leads in touchdown receptions, all but Raridon have gotten into the endzone at least twice, and the group as a whole has combined to catch 11 of the 14 scores from Carr this season. The running game is the obvious and rightful focal point of the Irish game plan, and things will get a whole lot easier for Love and Price if Carr can help make opposing defenses respect the passing game and provide more space for them at the line of scrimmage.
THE PICK AND WHY
This week’s game means something to both teams but for very different reasons; Notre Dame needs a victory to continue their playoff quest, and BC is desperate for anything positive as O’Brien attempts to hold onto his job and the team looks for a possible silver lining of a signature win in their dismal 2025 campaign. If the Eagles can’t keep it close early, the game and their chances of covering are almost assuredly over as their fan base has a reputation of arriving late and leaving early, which combined with the large number of Notre Dame fans expected at Alumni Stadium could lead to a beating similar to those given by area legends Rocky Marciano, Marvin Hagler and Micky Ward.
BC has been awful against quality competition of late, going 2-30 in their last 32 games against ranked opponents and 1-11 in their last 12 as an underdog. I expect that to continue on Saturday, as the question isn’t whether or not they are going to lose, it’s by how much. The Fighting Irish are a much better team in a prime position to take advantage of an opponent with not only a weak home-field advantage but also one whose players realistically know their season is an embarrassment of a lost cause, and with the new college football landscape, are likely already planning their escape to the transfer portal and another program next season.
Notre Dame needs to win and win big, and they will on Saturday.
Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame -28
