Bryan Bash calls this one “softer than a marshmallow.” With the Celtics limping in short-handed and the 76ers riding a 4-0 start behind Tyrese Maxey’s monster scoring run, he’s reading this -2 spread as a clear setup.
The Setup: Celtics at 76ers
The line opened at Philly -2, and I’m telling you right now—this number is screaming trap. The books want you to think this is a close game, but let me break down why this spread is softer than a marshmallow. The 76ers are sitting pretty at 4-0, riding high with Tyrese Maxey averaging an absurd 37.5 points per game and the Celtics are limping in at 2-3 without their best player. Jayson Tatum’s been out with an Achilles injury, and the books are acting like Boston can still hang with an undefeated squad that’s averaging 129.3 points per game this season.
This line’s a joke. Philadelphia is the second-ranked team in the East with a 4-0 conference record, while Boston sits at 10th with a 1-3 conference mark. The market’s disrespecting Philly here, and I’m hammering this number before it moves. The Celtics just beat Cleveland by 20 at home, sure, but that was against a team that collapsed in the fourth quarter. Tonight they’re walking into Xfinity Mobile Arena against a team that hasn’t lost yet and just came back from 16 down in overtime to beat Washington. The writing’s on the wall with this matchup.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Friday, October 31, 2025 at 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA
- Spread: 76ers -2 (-110)
- Total: O/U 234.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Celtics +105 / 76ers -125
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let me tell you exactly what Vegas is doing here. They’re giving you a short number on an undefeated home team because they know the public sees “Celtics” and thinks championship pedigree. But here’s what the sharp money knows: Philadelphia is averaging 129.3 PPG this season while Boston’s defense is giving up 107.2 PPG. That’s a 22-point offensive advantage in Philly’s favor based on season-long efficiency.
The 76ers are shooting 46.9% from the field and an absolutely ridiculous 41.9% from three-point range—that’s the best three-point percentage in the entire league right now. Meanwhile, Boston’s shooting just 44.6% overall and 33.1% from deep. The books are begging you to take Boston and the points because they know what’s coming.
Here’s the trap: the Celtics are 2-3 ATS this season, and they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road according to the trends. Philadelphia is 3-1 ATS overall and has covered six of their last nine games. The market knows that Philly dominates in the fourth quarter—they’re averaging 37.0 PPG in the fourth, the best in the league, while Boston averages just 30.8. This is exactly the spot where the Celtics burn you if you back them.
Celtics Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Let’s be real about what Boston is working with right now. Without Tatum, this team is relying on Jaylen Brown to carry the load, and he’s been solid at 26.8 PPG on 52% shooting. Brown dropped 30 on Cleveland in their last game, hitting three straight three-pointers to end the first half and bury the Cavs. But here’s the problem: that was at home against a team that shot 33% in the fourth quarter.
The Celtics’ offense is averaging just 114.2 PPG this season, ranking 21st in the league. They’re 28th in fastbreak points at 11.8 per game, and they’re also 28th in points in the paint at 40.8 per game. This is a team that lives and dies by the three-pointer—they’re attempting 48.4 three-pointers per game, the most in the NBA. When they’re hot, they can hang with anyone. When they’re cold, like they were in losses to Detroit and New York, they get blown out.
Derrick White and Payton Pritchard have stepped up in supporting roles, but this team doesn’t have the firepower to match Philly’s offensive explosion right now. Boston’s also turning it over just 11.8 times per game, which is good, but they’re going up against a 76ers defense that forces 12.3 turnovers per game and turns those into transition buckets.
76ers Breakdown: The Other Side
This Philadelphia squad is absolutely rolling, and Tyrese Maxey is playing like an MVP candidate. He dropped 39 points with 10 assists in that overtime win against Washington, and he’s averaging 37.5 PPG through four games. That’s not a fluke—Maxey’s taking 25.3 shots per game, getting to the free-throw line 11.5 times, and shooting 47.4% from three on nearly 10 attempts per game. He’s playing 43 minutes a night and carrying this offense to historic levels.
The 76ers have the league’s second-best offense at 129.3 PPG, and they’re doing it with balance. VJ Edgecombe, the rookie guard, is averaging 22.3 PPG and providing elite two-way play. Kelly Oubre Jr. is chipping in 17.8 PPG with 6.5 rebounds, and Joel Embiid—even on limited minutes—is still giving them 16.3 PPG when he’s on the floor.
Philadelphia’s shooting numbers are insane: 46.9% from the field, 41.9% from three, and 80.9% from the free-throw line. They’re assisting on 60.1% of their field goals, showing how well this offense moves the ball. They’re also dominating the fourth quarter, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.6 points in the final frame. That Washington comeback wasn’t luck—it’s what this team does.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to three factors: pace, three-point shooting, and fourth-quarter execution. Philadelphia plays at a faster pace and scores more efficiently than Boston in every meaningful category. The 76ers average 92.3 possessions per game compared to Boston’s 91.4, and they convert those possessions at a much higher rate.
The three-point battle is where Philly wins this game. They’re shooting 41.9% from deep while Boston’s defense allows 34.0% from three—league-average at best. Boston needs to hit their threes to stay competitive, but they’re only making 33.1% this season. On the road, the Celtics are 1-2 and averaging just 110.0 PPG, significantly below their season average.
Historically, these teams have seen the total go over in five straight head-to-head meetings. Philadelphia won the most recent matchup 117-116 on the road at TD Garden, with that game featuring a healthy roster on both sides. The trends show Philadelphia is 6-2 straight up in the last eight meetings, and the home team has dominated this series lately. With the 76ers averaging 37.0 PPG in the fourth quarter and Boston averaging 30.8, any close game heavily favors Philly down the stretch.
The biggest advantage? Philadelphia is 2-0 at home this season and has won by an average of 8 points in those games. They beat Orlando 136-124 and Charlotte 125-121, both covering the spread. Boston is 1-2 on the road and just got torched by New York 105-95 earlier this week.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
BASH’S BEST BET: 76ers -2 (-110) — 2 Units
This line’s too short, plain and simple. Philadelphia is averaging 129.3 PPG while Boston’s averaging 114.2. That’s a 15-point gap in offensive efficiency, and the spread is asking you to believe the Celtics keep this within a bucket? I’m not buying it.
Maxey’s averaging nearly 38 points per game and playing like a man possessed. The Celtics don’t have anyone who can guard him, and Philly’s shooting 42% from three as a team. Boston’s undermanned without Tatum, they’re struggling on the road at 1-2, and they’re walking into a buzzsaw of an offense that scores 37 points per quarter in crunch time.
The sharp money knows what’s up here. The 76ers are 4-0 for a reason—they’re better than this spread suggests, and I’m loading up on this number before it moves to -3 or higher. This is exactly the spot where Philadelphia reminds everyone they’re legitimate title contenders and Boston gets exposed without their best player.
Lock it in: 76ers -2. The market’s disrespecting an undefeated team at home, and I’m taking advantage all day long.
