Ja Morant’s suspension flipped the market for this Sunday clash in Toronto, but Bryan Bash isn’t rushing to take a side. The Grizzlies’ depth faces its biggest test yet, while the Raptors’ home woes raise major red flags for bettors.
The Setup: Memphis at Toronto
Hold up – we need to talk about the elephant in the room. Ja Morant is SUSPENDED for this game. The Grizzlies’ star guard got into it with coach Tuomas Iisalo after Friday’s Lakers loss, told reporters to “go ask the coaching staff” about what went wrong, and Memphis slapped him with a one-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the team. That changes everything.
Here’s where it gets interesting though. This line opened at Raptors -5.5 and hasn’t moved much despite the Morant news being public since Saturday. The books KNOW he’s out, and they’re still only asking for 5.5 points. That tells you something. They’re not scared of a Morant-less Grizzlies team, and neither am I – but we need to be smart about this.
Let me break this down for you: Memphis is averaging 119.0 PPG this season while giving up 122.0 on the defensive end. Toronto’s sitting at 119.8 PPG on offense and bleeding 123.3 PPG on defense. These aren’t defensive juggernauts – we’re talking about two teams that can light it up but struggle to stop anyone. The question is: can Memphis score enough without their primary playmaker?
The Grizzlies just took the Lakers to the wire on Friday night, putting up 112 points even with Morant going ice cold (3-14 from the field, 8 points total). Here’s the thing – Memphis scored 42 points in the second quarter alone, building a 14-point halftime lead WITHOUT significant Morant production. When your star has an off night and you still hang with a good team, that tells you something about the depth and offensive firepower this squad possesses.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Sunday, November 2, 2025 – 6:00 PM ET
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
- Spread: Raptors -5.5 (-110) | Grizzlies +5.5 (-110)
- Total: 238.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
- Moneyline: Raptors -210 | Grizzlies +175
- KEY INJURY: Ja Morant (Memphis) – SUSPENDED (conduct detrimental to team)
Why This Line Still Has Value (Yes, Even Without Morant)
The books know what they’re doing keeping this at 5.5. They’re banking on the public seeing “Morant suspended” and hammering Toronto at home. But let me tell you what the sharp money sees.
Toronto’s 0-2 at home this season. That’s not a typo – they haven’t won a single game at Scotiabank Arena yet. Meanwhile, they’re 2-2 on the road. This is exactly the spot where the Raptors burn you. The public’s all over Toronto because “Morant’s out” and “home court advantage,” but the market knows this team actually plays better away from home.
Look at the efficiency metrics: Memphis shoots 45.4% from the field overall while Toronto’s at 50.4%. That’s a significant gap, but here’s where it gets interesting – Memphis attempts 91.0 FGA per game compared to Toronto’s 87.7. The Grizzlies play faster, which means more opportunities to exploit Toronto’s 123.3 PPG defensive rating.
The writing’s on the wall with this matchup. Toronto’s giving up more points per game than they’re scoring, and their home struggles are well-documented. Even without Morant, this number screams value for the right bettor.
Memphis Breakdown: Life Without Morant
Let’s be real – losing Morant hurts. He’s averaging 20.8 PPG and 6.7 assists per game. But the Grizzlies showed us something on Friday night: they can produce offense without him dominating. Memphis scored 42 points in the second quarter against the Lakers with Morant going 0-8 in that quarter. How? Role players stepped up.
Cedric Coward has been a revelation – the rookie’s averaging 15.5 PPG and isn’t afraid of the moment. Jaren Jackson Jr. is consistently putting up 17.2 PPG with 5.0 rebounds. The Grizzlies are assisting on 68.5% of their field goals (28.3 assists per game), which shows unselfish ball movement that doesn’t rely on one player.
Here’s the other side of it: Memphis is already dealing with injuries to Ty Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr., and Brandon Clarke – they’ve been playing without these guys and adjusting on the fly. One more absence? They’re built for this adversity.
The concern remains: Memphis is giving up 122.0 PPG on defense and averaging just 52.5 total rebounds per game compared to Toronto’s 54.2. But in a high-scoring track meet, I’ll take the team getting points with multiple offensive weapons and something to prove.
Toronto Breakdown: The Trap Door
Toronto’s 2-4 straight up and 2-4 ATS – perfectly mediocre. They just beat Cleveland 112-101 on the road, but let’s not forget the Cavs were missing Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen. That’s like beating a team with two starters sitting courtside in street clothes. Not exactly a quality win when you dig into the context.
Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes are both averaging over 20 PPG (21.7 and 20.8 respectively), and RJ Barrett’s chipping in 19.3 PPG. The scoring is there, but the defense is non-existent. They’re surrendering 123.3 PPG – worst in this matchup – and opponents are shooting 51.08% against them overall. That’s basically an open gym.
Here’s the killer stat: Toronto’s 0-2 at home and 2-2 on the road. They score 118.5 PPG at Scotiabank Arena but give up 130.5 PPG there. Read that again – they’re bleeding 130.5 points per game on their home court. The market wants you to lay points with a team that can’t defend at home? Even without Morant, that’s asking for trouble.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This is going to be a track meet, plain and simple. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league defensively, and both can score. Memphis averages 119.0 PPG while Toronto puts up 119.8 – we’re talking about a combined 238.8 PPG, which just happens to match the total of 238.5. Vegas knows something here.
The pace advantage still goes to Memphis. They’re averaging 28.3 assists per game with a 2.024 assist-to-turnover ratio, while Toronto’s at 29.8 assists but only a 1.596 assist-to-turnover ratio. Memphis takes care of the ball better, which means more possessions turn into quality shots – with or without Morant.
In the head-to-head history, Memphis has won 5 straight on the road in Toronto. Let me repeat that: FIVE STRAIGHT. The last time Toronto beat Memphis at home was November 24, 2021. Every trend points to Memphis staying competitive in this game. The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Toronto, and the total has gone under in 7 of the last 8 matchups in Toronto.
The injury situation now heavily favors Toronto with Morant out. Memphis is also dealing with long-term injuries to Ty Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr., and Brandon Clarke. Toronto’s missing Jakob Poeltl (back) and potentially Jamal Shead (illness), but that’s nothing compared to losing your starting point guard.
Bash’s Updated Take & The Play
I’m not going to lie to you – the Morant suspension changes this game significantly. This opened as a Memphis play, but we need to adjust to the information we have. The question isn’t whether Memphis is worse without Morant (they obviously are), it’s whether Toronto at home is good enough to cover 5.5 points against a scrappy Memphis team that’s shown depth.
Here’s what I’m seeing: Toronto can’t defend at home (130.5 PPG allowed), they’re 0-2 straight up at Scotiabank Arena, and Memphis has won 5 straight in this building with better rosters than what Toronto’s running out there now. But Morant being out is massive – he’s their engine.
The sharp play here is actually FIRST HALF UNDER or waiting for a better live betting spot. With Morant out, Memphis will struggle early to find offensive rhythm. If Toronto jumps out to a big lead, you can grab Memphis live at a better number. If it stays close, Toronto’s home demons will show up in the second half.
If you’re forcing me to pick the spread before tip-off, I have to lean Toronto -5.5 now, but I hate laying points with a team that’s 0-2 at home. The value play is passing on the game spread and looking for better opportunities.
BASH’S UPDATED RECOMMENDATION: NO PLAY on game spread | Consider 1st Half Under 119.5 or wait for live betting opportunities
Sometimes the best bet is no bet. Morant’s suspension takes away the edge I saw in Memphis’s depth. Toronto should win this game, but can they cover 5.5 at home where they’ve been terrible? I’m not confident enough to put units on either side. If you absolutely have to play it, take Toronto -5.5 small, but I’m sitting this one out and waiting for better spots.
