Bryan Bash isn’t touching the fat spread — instead, he’s eyeing the total as the Wizards’ leaky defense meets a red-hot Knicks offense at Madison Square Garden.
The Setup: Wizards at Knicks
This line’s a joke, and the books know it. The Knicks are laying 12.5 points at home against a Washington squad that’s looked completely lost through six games. But here’s the thing — when a spread gets this fat, you’ve gotta ask yourself: what am I missing? The Wizards are 1-5 straight up and just got embarrassed by Orlando 125-94 two nights ago. Meanwhile, New York just snapped a three-game skid by torching the Bulls for 128 points. The market’s begging you to take the home favorite, which means sharp money might be eyeing something else entirely.
Washington’s defense is a disaster right now, surrendering 128.3 points per game — dead last in the NBA. The Knicks are averaging 115.8 PPG and just put up their highest point total of the season. This screams blowout, right? Maybe. But I’ve seen this movie before, and the double-digit road dog sometimes finds a way to keep it closer than expected. Let’s dig into why this number sits where it does.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date & Time: Monday, November 3, 2025 at 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
- Spread: Knicks -12.5 (Bovada) / -11.5 (MyBookie)
- Total: 233.0-234.0
- Moneyline: Knicks -650 / Wizards +450
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The books set this line fat for a reason. Washington’s coming off a 31-point beatdown at home where they shot under 40% and got outrebounded by 13. The Wizards are 0-3 at home this season and now have to travel to MSG. The Knicks, meanwhile, just found their rhythm offensively with 20 made threes against Chicago on a back-to-back situation — their best shooting night of the year at 47.6% from deep.
But here’s where it gets interesting: Washington’s actually 1-2 ATS on the road this season, and they hung around in their road losses. The Wizards offense isn’t the problem — they’re averaging 115.0 PPG away from home. The issue is they can’t stop anybody, allowing 122.3 PPG on the road. Against a Knicks team that’s 3-0 at home and averaging 117.3 PPG at MSG, this sets up as a track meet.
The market’s pricing in a comfortable Knicks victory based on recent form and venue. New York’s undefeated at home, Washington’s winless at home, and the narrative writes itself. But double-digit spreads in the NBA are always tricky. Teams get complacent, garbage time happens, and suddenly that 18-point lead shrinks to 10 in the final five minutes. The total of 233.5 tells you Vegas expects points — lots of them.
Washington Wizards Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Wizards are a mess defensively, but they’re not rolling over offensively. They’re averaging 114.3 PPG this season, which ranks 23rd but isn’t terrible. The problem is they’re giving up 128.3 PPG — that’s a 14-point deficit every single night. Their shooting percentage is 45.1%, and they’re hitting 38.3% from three (9th in the NBA). So they can score when they get hot.
KyShawn George has been their bright spot, averaging 18.3 PPG with 7.8 rebounds in his rookie campaign. Alexandre Sarr is chipping in 17 PPG with elite shot-blocking (2.2 BPG, 2nd in the league). CJ McCollum’s been inconsistent at 14.2 PPG on poor shooting, but he’s capable of getting hot. The issue is Washington’s rebounding and defensive effort. They’re getting crushed on the glass (47.2 RPG, 15th in NBA) and allowing opponents to shoot 47.7% against them.
Washington’s 0-4 against Eastern Conference opponents and 0-3 at opponents’ homes. They’re playing their fifth game in seven nights, which is a brutal stretch. Fatigue could be a massive factor here, especially defensively where they’re already struggling.
New York Knicks Breakdown: The Other Side
The Knicks are 3-0 at home but 0-3 on the road, which tells you everything about this team right now. They’re comfortable at MSG and struggled badly away from it. Jalen Brunson is carrying the offensive load with 31.2 PPG (6th in NBA) and shooting 47.8% from the field. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 18.3 PPG with 13.2 rebounds per game — his fifth double-double in six games. That rebounding advantage (Towns: 13.2 RPG vs Washington’s team average) is going to be crucial.
Mikal Bridges has found his rhythm with 17.5 PPG and 6.0 rebounds, shooting an efficient 55.1% from the field. OG Anunoby adds defensive versatility and 17.3 PPG. The Knicks are shooting 42.9% as a team, which isn’t great, but they’re getting to the line (25.0 FTA per game, 17th in NBA) and converting at 85.3% (4th in NBA).
New York’s defense has been solid at home, allowing just 107.3 PPG at MSG. They’re 2nd in the league in opponent home shooting defense. The Knicks rebound well (54.5 RPG) and take care of the ball with just 13.3 turnovers per game (5th-fewest in NBA). This is a disciplined home team that takes advantage of mismatches.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to three things: pace, rebounding, and three-point shooting. Washington’s playing at a faster tempo (19.5 fastbreak PPG, 5th in NBA) than New York (13.5 fastbreak PPG, 24th). If the Wizards can push the ball and create transition opportunities, they can keep this closer than expected. But that requires stops, and Washington hasn’t shown they can get consecutive stops against anybody.
The rebounding battle favors New York heavily. The Knicks average 54.5 total rebounds per game and are even better at home (50.5 RPG). Washington’s getting torched on the defensive glass, allowing opponents 39.3 defensive rebounds per game on the road. Towns and the Knicks frontcourt are going to feast on second-chance opportunities.
Three-point shooting could swing this game. New York shot 61.9% from three in the first half against Chicago and finished 20-for-42 (47.6%) for the game. If they shoot anywhere near that percentage again, this turns into a 20+ point blowout. Washington’s allowing opponents to shoot 36.2% from three on the road, which is actually decent, but one hot shooting night from the Knicks and it’s over.
Historically, these teams have been lopsided. In their last 10 meetings, the Knicks are 9-1 straight up and 6-4 ATS. The average margin in those games has been 11.6 points. Washington hasn’t shown they can compete against quality opponents this season.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
Here’s the deal: I don’t love laying 12.5 points with anybody in November, but this Wizards team is that bad defensively. New York’s 3-0 at home for a reason — they defend, they rebound, and Brunson’s playing at an MVP level. Washington’s coming off getting blown out on Saturday, and they’re about to face a Knicks team on a back-to-back that just found their offensive rhythm with 20 made threes.
The total is where the value sits. Washington’s games are going over at a 4-2 clip, and they’re 2-1 over on the road. New York’s hitting the over at 3-2, including 1-1 at home. Both teams can score — the Wizards average 115 PPG on the road, and the Knicks just dropped 128. This total of 233 might not be high enough if both teams get into a rhythm early.
I’m hammering the Over 233. Washington can’t defend anybody, New York’s offense is clicking, and this sets up as a track meet. The Knicks will get out to a big lead, Washington will push the pace trying to catch up, and we’ll cruise past this number by the middle of the third quarter.
BASH’S BEST BET: OVER 233 (-110) — This Wizards defense is historically bad, and the Knicks just found their three-point stroke. Load up on this before the total climbs.
