Vergil Ortiz (23-0, 21 KOs) vs. Erickson Lubin (27-2, 19 KOs)
When: Saturday, November 8, 2025
Where: Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, Texas
TV: DAZN
Weight Class: WBC Interim Super Welterweight Championship
Betting Odds: Vergil Ortiz (-1000), Erickson Lubin (+550)—Odds by Bovada
Fight Analysis:
Vergil Ortiz defends his interim WBC 154-pound belt against longtime contender Erickson Lubin on November 8 in Fort Worth. The Dallas-born Ortiz, 27, is starting to make his big move and gets a big fight near home in Fort Worth. Ortiz is unbeaten with a hefty KO percentage, a fighter looking to break into that upper pantheon who has already beaten some good fighters since turning pro at 18 in 2016. It’s been a slow and deliberate build, and this is where the stakes kick up a notch. Lubin, 30, is not an easy out. Will Ortiz continue building a foundation against contenders, or can Lubin show himself to be something more? Let’s break it down!
In the interests of full disclosure, I took a shine to Lubin quite early. A decorated amateur, there is something so pleasingly old-school about his style. He’s a smooth southpaw with a spidery 75-inch reach who can really box. He was looking good on his way up, with his first world title shot ending in disaster when he was stopped in the first round by Jermell Charlo. He continued on in winning form until Sebastian Fundora stopped him when his corner wouldn’t let him out for the tenth round in a 2022 bout.
Against Charlo, Lubin was caught by surprise and took an early TKO. Against Fundora, a 6’6″ fighter of extreme credentials, the damage to Lubin’s face was the prevailing factor. Lubin had been down, but also had Fundora down in what was really a good competitive fight. The point is that in a decade of fighting and much of that spent at the top levels of 154 pounds, Lubin has just a few setbacks against two really good fighters, both of whom advanced beyond the point Ortiz currently represents.
Maybe I’m guilty of trying to make the case instead of letting it come to me based on some fondness I have for Lubin’s style. But I still can’t help but think that Lubin has a quality that makes laying -1000 on Ortiz in this spot a very unappealing proposition. I understand the prevailing narrative. Ortiz is this hotshot, undefeated fighter with a 90%+ knockout ratio, fighting in his home area against an opponent who has been stopped twice, the two times he tried to step up in class. But Lubin is still a capable southpaw, and it’s not like Ortiz has faced a ton of good boxers operating from that stance. We see that Ortiz has taken on a lot of good fighters with good records, but maybe he’s not acclimating to this new altitude that well, either.
Hats off to Ortiz for stepping up in his last two fights against Serhii Bohachuk and Israil Madrimov. But after knocking out all his previous opponents, he had to go the distance in both of these fights, with the scorecards being pretty close; Bohachuk’s win was only a majority decision victory. Suddenly, his punching power wasn’t winning the day as it had in his earlier fights. Who’s to say that if Ortiz didn’t step up in a bigger way like Lubin did, the results wouldn’t have been similar? In other words, perhaps the true gulf between the two fighters is overstated by the odds to some degree.
At the same time, when a KO artist is able to transition into someone who can go the distance in winning fashion against good fighters, it’s a positive sign. He’s not just going to bowl everyone over, and it’s good to see he has other routes to the winner’s circle. It’s not just his offense. He has tremendous energy, and he can carry on late into a fight. Ortiz’s footwork is superb, as he subtly cuts off the ring until opponents have to make a stand. At that point, sharp and hurtful punches start coming to the head and body. And sure, Ortiz can be tagged with a counter. Sometimes, he is a bit straight-up and square. His head is exposed too much in exchanges. Opponents are still faced with the proposition that if you’re going to get offensive, there’s a price to pay.
Lubin may be a long 154-pounder with his height and reach, but Ortiz has good size of his own for the division. There are some things stylistically in this fight that would appear to suit him. Lubin is a strong hitter and has shown more power in recent outings, but it’s still not his calling card, and him bombing out a fighter of Ortiz’s caliber might not be the most plausible of outcomes. And a leap of faith is required to think Lubin will be able to withstand the diverse offensive attack Ortiz lays on his opponents, particularly the body attack.
Ortiz is the more-explosive fighter. His offense is more compelling by a decent margin, and the idea that Lubin will be able to box and keep Ortiz off of him for much of 12 rounds seems dicey at best. Ortiz as a straight-up winner is a bet that carries no appeal at the 10-to-1 quote. Lubin at +550 is appealing on some level until one actually plays it out in the mind’s eye. I think that either way, whether Lubin is able to produce an upset or Ortiz just has a typically good night, we’re looking at a fight that doesn’t make it to the end. I’m betting that the fight doesn’t go the distance.
My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting that the Vergil Ortiz vs. Erickson Lubin fight doesn’t go the distance at -170 betting odds. I think the Bovada line that the fight doesn’t go the full 12 rounds has some upside, as facial damage looms as a potential factor in addition to the KO power of both men, mostly Ortiz, in a fight where a distance fight seems an unlikely result.
