Road favorite meets perfect home start. We break down the Spurs–Bulls number, the United Center edge, and efficiency splits—then reveal our ATS pick and O/U play inside.
The Setup: Spurs at Bulls
The books have San Antonio laying 4 points on the road against Chicago, and my immediate reaction? This line screams trap. The Spurs are 7-2 straight up but only 5-4 against the spread, and now they’re getting disrespected on the road where they’re a pedestrian 2-2. Meanwhile, the Bulls are a perfect 5-0 at home and 7-2 ATS overall. The market’s begging you to take the Spurs because of that shiny record, but I’m looking deeper at what these numbers actually tell us.
San Antonio’s coming off back-to-back wins against New Orleans (126-119) and Houston (121-110) at home, but this is a completely different animal. De’Aaron Fox just made his season debut with 24 points in that Pelicans game, and while Victor Wembanyama is putting up MVP-caliber numbers (24.3 PPG, 12.9 RPG, 3.8 BPG), the Bulls have the home-court advantage and a roster that’s clicking. Chicago just took Cleveland to the wire in a 128-122 loss, and they’re averaging 119.4 PPG at home compared to the Spurs’ 114.0 PPG on the road. That’s a five-point differential that should make this line a lot tighter.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Monday, November 10, 2025 at 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: United Center, Chicago, IL
- Spread: Spurs -4.0 (Bovada), -3.5 (MyBookie)
- Total: 234.5 (Bovada/MyBookie)
- Moneyline: Spurs -160, Bulls +135 (Bovada)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Vegas is selling you the Spurs’ 7-2 record and Wembanyama’s dominance, but they’re not telling you the whole story. San Antonio is 1-3 ATS on the road this season, and they’re facing a Bulls team that’s 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against San Antonio. That’s not a coincidence—that’s a pattern. The betting trends are screaming at us: Chicago is 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Spurs overall.
The public’s all over San Antonio because of Wembanyama and that 7-2 record, but sharp money knows what’s up here. The Spurs are shooting 49.7% from the field overall but only 45.0% on the road. The Bulls, meanwhile, are shooting 49.1% at home with a significant advantage in assists (29.8 APG vs. 25.9 APG for Spurs opponents). Chicago’s offensive efficiency at home (123.4 PPG in their 5-0 start) is suffocating, and they’ve got multiple weapons in Josh Giddey (21.4 PPG, 9.3 APG) and Nikola Vucevic (17.8 PPG, 10.6 RPG).
The market’s disrespecting Chicago here, and I’m not buying the narrative that the Spurs’ road record suddenly improves against a team that’s historically owned them at the United Center. The total sitting at 234.5 also tells me the books are expecting a shootout, and with both teams averaging 119+ PPG, I’m inclined to agree.
Spurs Breakdown: What You Need to Know
San Antonio’s offense is potent at 119.1 PPG, ranking 13th in the league, but their road scoring drops to 119.8 PPG with a defensive rating of 114.0 PPG allowed on the road. That’s a problem when you’re facing a Chicago team that’s averaging 119.4 PPG overall and 123.4 PPG at home. The Spurs’ biggest strength is Wembanyama, who’s putting up historic numbers with 24.3 PPG, 12.9 RPG, and league-leading 3.8 BPG. Stephon Castle has been a revelation with 18.4 PPG and 7.3 APG in his rookie campaign.
But here’s the issue: the Spurs are thin at guard with Dylan Harper out multiple weeks with a strained left calf, and De’Aaron Fox is still shaking off rust in his season debut. Fox shot 9-for-14 against New Orleans but played just 30.5 minutes. The Spurs’ offensive efficiency is 1.204, which is solid, but they’re 25th in assists per field goal made (0.600), indicating they rely heavily on individual scoring rather than ball movement. That’s not a recipe for success on the road against a team that’s defending their home court like it’s Fort Knox.
Bulls Breakdown: The Other Side
Chicago’s 6-3 record might not jump off the page, but dig into the numbers and you’ll see why they’re dangerous at home. The Bulls are averaging 119.4 PPG with 29.8 APG (4th in the league), and they’re shooting 49.1% from the field with a 39.7% three-point percentage at home. Josh Giddey is the engine, averaging 21.4 PPG, 9.6 RPG, and 9.3 APG with two triple-doubles already this season. Nikola Vucevic is a double-double machine at 17.8 PPG and 10.6 RPG, shooting 55.8% from the field and 47.2% from three.
The Bulls’ defensive rebounding (36.6 RPG, 3rd in the league) gives them extra possessions, and they’re only turning the ball over 14.4 times per game compared to San Antonio’s 15.6 turnovers. Matas Buzelis (14.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG) and Ayo Dosunmu (14.6 PPG) provide additional scoring punch off the bench. The key injury concern is Josh Giddey’s ankle (questionable for Monday), but even if he sits, the Bulls have shown depth with Kevin Huerter (13.1 PPG) ready to step up.
Chicago’s 5-0 at home for a reason: they’re executing Billy Donovan’s system to perfection, moving the ball (0.689 assists per FGM, 5th in the league) and protecting their home court with an intensity San Antonio hasn’t faced on their cozy homestand.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to three factors: pace, rebounding, and the Spurs’ road struggles. San Antonio plays at a faster pace (more fastbreak points) but Chicago’s offensive efficiency at home (123.4 PPG) suggests they can keep up. The Bulls have a significant rebounding advantage with 47.2 total rebounds per game at home versus the Spurs’ 39.8 RPG allowed on the road. That’s an extra seven possessions per game, and in a high-scoring game, that’s the difference between covering and getting burned.
Historically, this matchup favors Chicago at home. In the head-to-head summary, the Bulls are 7-3 straight up in the last 10 meetings and 6-4 ATS, averaging 120.8 PPG compared to San Antonio’s 115.0 PPG. The under has hit in five straight home games for Chicago against the Spurs, but both teams’ offensive firepower this season suggests that trend could reverse.
The Spurs are 1-5 SU in their last six games in Chicago and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games against the Bulls. I’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t end well for San Antonio bettors. The writing’s on the wall: Chicago defends home court, gets extra possessions through rebounding, and the Spurs’ road woes continue in a hostile environment.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
BASH’S BEST BET: Chicago Bulls +4 (-105)
This line’s a joke. The Spurs are laying 4 points on the road where they’re 2-2 and 1-3 ATS against a Bulls team that’s 5-0 at home and has historically dominated this matchup at the United Center. San Antonio’s road defensive rating (114.0 PPG) is a massive red flag against Chicago’s 123.4 PPG home scoring average. The 7-point rebounding differential (47.2 for Bulls at home vs. 39.8 allowed by Spurs on road) gives Chicago extra possessions, and Giddey’s playmaking (9.3 APG) will carve up San Antonio’s defense.
The trends are screaming Bulls: 9-2 ATS in last 11 home games vs. Spurs, 5-0 ATS in last five home games overall, and San Antonio is 1-5 SU in last six trips to Chicago. I’m hammering Chicago +4 before this line moves to +3.5 or +3. The Bulls are getting disrespected at home, and that’s exactly the spot where smart money capitalizes. Load up on Chicago and watch the Spurs’ road struggles continue. This is exactly the spot where San Antonio burns you—don’t say I didn’t warn you.
