Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday, November 15th 12:00 PM
Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: ND -10 / PITT+10
Over/Under Total: 55
Two teams with BCS Playoff aspirations that have combined to win twelve games in a row between them meet on Saturday when the Pittsburgh Panthers host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish for a noontime showdown at Acrisure Stadium. The all-time series has been one-sided both historically (Notre Dame leads 52-21-1) and in recent years as well, with the Irish having won seven of the last eight. They are also in the midst of a four-game winning streak that has all come against current Panther head coach Pat Narduzzi.
FREED MASON
After back-to-back losses against West Virginia and Louisville, the Panthers found themselves entering the second month of the season with just a .500 record, and a change was made at the quarterback position from Eli Holstein to true freshman Mason Heintschel, who has since led Pittsburgh to five straight wins. Averaging over 300 yards passing per game, Heintschel has provided a much-needed spark to the offense, which has posted at least 30 points in every game since he took over.
Unfortunately, the first-year starter’s inexperience has shown through at times, having thrown five interceptions and fumbled four times to go along with a lack of pocket presence that has seen him get sacked 16 times. Turnovers and protection issues are two areas that the Panthers have struggled with all season, and are an especial concern this week against a Notre Dame defense that ranks 3rd in the NCAA in interceptions (Pitt is 133rd offensively) and 18th in sacks (Pitt is 117th in sacks allowed)
SCHELLING IT OUT
The top targets in the passing game for Heintschel are Kenny Johnson and Raphael Williams Jr. The two wide receivers are the only players on the team with at least 20 receptions, and they have combined to post over 1000 yards receiving along with ten touchdowns. They are usually the first two looks for Mason when he drops back to pass, but the air success of late has been a team effort, with at least ten different players recording a reception in each of their last two wins and an average of nine per game over the time that Heintschel has started.
TURNER OVERDRIVE
Despite having two talented backs in Ja’Kyrion Turner and Desmond Reid, the Panthers’ running game ranks just 102nd nationally in yards per game. Reid missed the last game due to an injury suffered against Boston College, and Turner took advantage of the opportunity as the backfield focal point, with his first game ever clearing 100 yards on the ground. Both are dual threats, with each posting double-digit receptions on the season, and they should expect that air attention to continue, thanks to the expected pressure from the Notre Dame front line, causing their quarterback to have to check down to an easy option.
Reid is currently listed as questionable to play against Notre Dame, though he was able to warm up before their previous game, and the extra time off due to the Panthers’ bye week should have provided him with the requisite amount of time to heal. For those wondering, Reid is not related to former NFL player Dexter Reid, whose porous play late in the 4th quarter cost the New England Patriots a cover to go along with their win in Super Bowl 39, or JR Reid, the small forward who played at North Carolina for what seemed like the entire decade of the 1980s.
Whoever gets the ball for the Panthers will be tested against a Notre Dame rush defense that hasn’t allowed a running back into the endzone for seven straight games and has only had one player rush for over 100 yards on them all season, and it was Navy quarterback Braxton Woodson.
BACK-FIELD OF DREAMS
One of the most telling matchups to the outcome of Saturday’s game will be Notre Dame’s rushing attack of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price against Pittsburgh’s run defense that ranks third nationally in yards allowed per game. The Panthers could be without their second leading tackler, linebacker Rasheem Biles, who is questionable to play due to injury, which isn’t a good head start for game planning as Pitt has yet to face a running back similar to Love this season, who is tied for the NCAA lead in touchdowns scored, let alone a backfield which combined with the addition of Price makes them the clear best running combo in the country. There is no hyperbole in saying that, as their greatness is only further solidified by the fact that the two Irish backs are ranked in the top three overall at their position for next year’s NFL Draft.
CARR STEERING
The blowout win against Navy was a welcome tune-up for Notre Dame signal caller CJ Carr, who, on the year, now has 19 touchdown passes compared to only four interceptions as he continues to find repeated success with favorite targets Jordan Faison, Malachi Fields, Eli Raridon, and Will Pauling. Carr has also been able to take advantage of the extra attention given to Love and Price by stretching the field to his aforementioned playmakers through the air, and along with ranking third in the nation in quarterback efficiency, he is also first in yards per attempt with an average of over 10. After multiple years in a row of finding essentially a hired gun in the transfer portal to lead the team at the quarterback position, it looks like the Irish have found the homegrown answer in Carr. If only now they could find a kicker.
SWEEP THE LEG
It’s not often that kickers are mentioned in these articles, but this week the difference between the two teams is so glaring that it had to be stated. Pitt’s freshman kicker, Trey Butkowski, ranks first in the NCAA in points scored and has made 19 of 21 field goal attempts and all but one of his 41 extra point tries. Notre Dame, on the other hand, has three different active players at the position as Marcus Freeman tries to get some semblance of special teams order, which was made that much more difficult against Navy when all three missed an extra point or field attempt during the game. Erik Schmidt is listed atop the Irish depth chart this week as the change is made from Noah Burnette, but how much of a difference it will make remains to be seen, considering that Schmidt missed both of his field goal attempts this season, and to make matters worse, each of them was inside of 40 yards.
THE PICK AND WHY
This game has been circled on the calendar for Notre Dame fans as the late-year, one to worry about on the schedule, and suddenly the game carries even more concern with Pittsburgh riding a five-game winning streak and even hosting College Gameday on campus for pregame festivities, which should only serve to fire up the hometown, raucous crowd even more.
The Panthers’ recipe for success this year and in recent history has been lighting up the scoreboard, as they have won all seven games this season when scoring 30 or more points and lost both when they went under that total. This run goes far beyond just this year, as Pittsburgh has won 32 straight games when scoring at least 30 points, but on the flip side, has gone 5-20 when they don’t reach that number.
Both defenses have the ability to stop the run, but there is only so long you can hold off both Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, which along with a more consistent quarterback leading the offense in Carr will be enough for the Irish to withstand the early home crowd momentum to leave Pittsburgh with an important win and cover on their way to another BCS Playoff run.
Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame -10
