New York Jets vs New England Patriots – Week 11 NFL Picks
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Thursday, November 13, 2025
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Odds: New England Patriots -12.5 to -13 | Total: 43
Recent Line Movement: Opened around -11.5, settled -12.5 to -13 across books
The Situation
The New England Patriots have emerged as the AFC East’s clear favorite, sitting atop the division at 8-2 with seven consecutive wins. Meanwhile, the New York Jets find themselves in familiar territory—struggling at 2-7 despite showing some life with back-to-back victories. On paper, this looks like a mismatch. But that’s where the injury reports and situational context become critical differentiators in determining whether New England’s double-digit spread adequately compensates for a Jets team that’s scored 27 and 39 points in their last two games against stronger defenses.
Efficiency and Field Dominance
Let’s start with the metrics that matter. New England generates 26.5 points per game (8th in NFL) against a Jets offense that musters just 21.7 PPG (25th). More importantly, the Patriots operate at 13.55 yards per point—meaning they require roughly 13-14 yards to generate each scoring drive. The Jets, at 13.18 yards per point, are marginally more efficient at converting yards into points, though the difference is negligible when you factor in field position, turnovers, and special teams contributions.
The real separation emerges on defense. New England’s run defense is elite—allowing just 79.2 yards per game (1st in NFL). The Jets, meanwhile, rank 24th in run defense at 138.2 yards allowed, and their passing offense (143.8 yards per game, dead last in NFL) means they lack the explosive element needed to exploit New England’s secondary. The Patriots’ defense allows 227 passing yards per game and ranks 5th in third-down percentage allowed at 34.3%. This is a defense built to force three-and-outs against limited passing attacks.
Red Zone Reality Check
Here’s where narrative often diverges from reality. New England converts red zone opportunities into touchdowns 57.14% of the time (18th in NFL). The Jets sit at 52.38% (23rd). That’s a 4.76-percentage-point gap—meaningful, but not the chasm some analysts suggest. Both teams struggle to capitalize in the red zone by NFL standards (league average approximates 62-65%). What this means for the game total: expect more field goal attempts than touchdown dances, particularly if New England’s defense stalls the Jets’ drives outside the red zone, forcing long-field-position scenarios.
The Injury Multiplier Effect
This is where things get interesting. Both teams are dealing with significant personnel absences, but the impact differs dramatically:
New England’s Situation: The Patriots are missing Kayshon Boutte (hamstring, OUT), their emerging deep-threat receiver who’s been crucial in the red zone. Rhamondre Stevenson (toe, OUT) changes the run-game script, though TreVeyon Henderson (knee, injured list) hasn’t been ruled out. More critically, Christian Elliss (hip, OUT) and Jack Gibbens (hamstring, injured) create linebacker depth concerns. Notably absent: superstar impact on offense. The backfield will feature Henderson if available, but his usage remains uncertain. Marcus Jones (elbow, injured), Jaylinn Hawkins (shoulder, injured), and Christian Barmore (back, injured) on defense represent secondary concerns, not primary impact players.
New York’s Situation: Garrett Wilson (knee, OUT) is the Jets’ primary downfield threat—their leading receiver in production and air yards. This is catastrophic for an offense already dead last in passing yards. Herbert (groin, questionable) on the running back depth affects secondary options. The defensive absences (Phillips, McDonald IV, McGregor on the line; Newman at guard) are notable but represent depth concerns rather than superstar impact. However, the loss of Wilson transforms New York’s passing game from “limited” to “severely compromised.”
Verdict: Patriots deal with role-player absences; Jets lose their primary playmaker. This shifts the efficiency equation noticeably in New England’s favor. Without Wilson, the Jets are forced into even more predictable run-heavy looks, playing directly into New England’s #1 run defense.
Situational Breakdown
| Category | Patriots | Jets | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 26.5 | 21.7 | Patriots +4.8 |
| Yards Per Point (Lower = Better) | 13.55 | 13.18 | Jets +0.37 |
| Run Defense (Yards Allowed) | 79.2 (1st) | 138.2 (24th) | Patriots Dominant |
| Pass Offense (Yards Per Game) | 241.4 | 143.8 (32nd) | Patriots +97.6 |
| Red Zone TD% | 57.14% (18th) | 52.38% (23rd) | Patriots +4.76% |
| 3rd Down Conversion % | 42.0% (7th) | 34.19% (28th) | Patriots +7.81% |
| Home/Away Record | 3-2 Home | 1-2 Away | Patriots Home |
| Recent Form (Last 3) | 3-0 | 2-1 | Patriots Trending |
| Key Injury Impact | Role Players | Primary Playmaker (Wilson) | Patriots Advantage |
What the Numbers Tell Us
The Patriots’ dominance rests on three pillars: (1) They control the line of scrimmage defensively, suffocating New York’s already-anemic passing attack. (2) Without Garrett Wilson, the Jets lack the vertical stretch element that could stress New England’s coverage. (3) Recent form—both teams winning, but Patriots winning bigger and more consistently—suggests New England’s team is on an upward trajectory while New York is treading water.
The Jets scored 27 vs Cleveland and 39 vs Cincinnati in recent wins. Both defenses rank significantly worse than New England’s. Cincinnati allows 5.8 yards per play (29th in NFL); Cleveland allows 5.9 (28th). New England, at 5.7 yards per play allowed (19th overall), operates in a different tier. More critically, New England’s run defense (79.2 yards) towers above both Cincinnati’s (163 yards allowed) and Cleveland’s (139 yards allowed). The Jets’ rushing attack will face a wall.
New England’s last five games tell the story: 28 PPG, 28.00 PPG differential. They’re scoring, they’re defending, and they’re covering. The Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs the Jets.
The Total and Game Flow
Vegas posted 43 total points. This reflects reasonable caution about offensive explosiveness given the combined red zone struggles and defensive strengths on display. Here’s the script: New England’s defense forces three-and-outs early. Patriots establish the run game, controlling clock and field position. Jets’ passing attack, severely compromised by Wilson’s absence, stalls repeatedly. New England moves methodically down the field, settling for field goals when the red zone trips occur (57% TD conversion rate means 43% become field goal opportunities). By the fourth quarter, New England’s possession advantage and time-of-possession edge create separation.
Expect a 6-9 point victory margin for New England, likely in the 20-24 range for the Patriots and 14-17 for the Jets. This projects to 34-41 total points depending on turnover sequences and special teams contributions.
The Bottom Line
New England’s -12.5 to -13 spread represents reasonable value given the Patriots’ home dominance, elite run defense, and the Jets’ loss of Garrett Wilson. The injury impact skews advantage toward New England. The red zone gap, while not massive, favors the Patriots consistently. This is not a blowout prediction (31-14 type scenarios require fabricated efficiency claims); this is a methodical, defensive-minded victory built on field position and third-down efficiency.
Recommendation
The Patriots -12.5 (-115) represents solid value in a matchup where New England’s defensive identity matches perfectly against New York’s limited offensive firepower. Lean Patriots, but recognize this game lives in the 20-24 point range, not the 30+ scorelines some analysts project.
The Under 43 (-110) offers compelling value given both teams’ red zone conversion struggles (57% and 52%, not the elite thresholds), New England’s defensive efficiency, and the Wilson absence forcing New York into predictable looks. Target Under 42.5 or 43.
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Under 43 (-110) — Red zone struggles, field position control, predictable Jets offense without Wilson
- ⭐⭐ Patriots -12.5 (-115) — Defensive identity advantage, Wilson absence, home field edge
Game Flow Projection: New England establishes early run game control against a Jets defense ranked 24th in rushing yards allowed. The Patriots’ defense forces punts on 3 of the first 4 Jets drives. By halftime, New England leads 10-3 or 13-6. The second half features more of the same—Patriots adding field goals, Jets occasionally finding rhythm but unable to score touchdowns with consistency. Late-game field position advantages allow New England to run clock. Final score range: Patriots 20-24, Jets 14-17. Under hits.
