Oklahoma City rolls into New Orleans as a massive favorite, but the spread is inflated enough that bettors need to look past the win-loss columns and focus on what actually moves this matchup.
The Setup: Thunder at Pelicans
This line’s a joke. The Thunder are laying 17.5 points against a Pelicans team that’s drowning at 2-11, and I’m here to tell you why Vegas has this number exactly where they want it. Oklahoma City comes into New Orleans riding a five-game win streak after demolishing Charlotte 109-96, while the Pelicans just got boat-raced by Golden State 124-106 in what turned into Willie Green’s final game as head coach. The books are practically begging you to take the Thunder and lay the big number, but sharp money knows what’s up here.
Looking at the team rankings data, Oklahoma City sits at #1 in the Western Conference at 13-1 with a ridiculous +15.4 average scoring margin. They’re averaging 121.6 points per game while allowing just 106.2 points. The Pelicans? Dead last in the Southwest at 2-11 with a brutal -13.3 scoring margin, averaging 108.2 points and surrendering 121.5. But here’s where it gets interesting – New Orleans is coming off a coaching change with James Borrego taking over on an interim basis. That’s exactly the spot where these desperate teams show up and cover inflated spreads.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Monday, November 17, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
- Spread: Thunder -17.5
- Total: 226.5
- Moneyline: Thunder -1900 / Pelicans +900
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The market’s disrespecting the Pelicans here, and I get it – they’re 2-11, just fired their coach, and missing key pieces. But let me tell you something about 17.5-point spreads in the NBA: they don’t cover as often as you think. The Thunder are 13-1 straight up, but that moneyline of -1900 tells you everything you need to know about how this game should go. Vegas isn’t stupid – they’ve set this number at 17.5 knowing the public’s all over Oklahoma City after watching them dominate for two weeks straight.
Here’s what the numbers actually show: Oklahoma City ranks #1 in opponent scoring at 106.2 PPG allowed and #1 in defensive efficiency. Their shooting percentage defense sits at 41.7%, which is elite. But the Pelicans aren’t as bad offensively as their record suggests – they’re shooting 43.8% from the field and averaging 108.2 points per game. That’s not great, but it’s not bottom-of-the-barrel either. The total’s set at 226.5, which factors in the Thunder’s pace (121.6 PPG) and assumes the Pelicans keep up offensively.
The Bovada line moved slightly from 17.5 to maintain that key number, with the total bumping from 226.0 to 226.5. That tells me early money came in on the Thunder, but the books aren’t moving off 17.5 because they want action on both sides. This is exactly the kind of setup where the favorite wins but fails to cover.
Thunder Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing out of his mind right now, averaging 32.6 points, 6.6 assists, and 5.1 rebounds per game. In that Charlotte win, he dropped 33 points and continues to be the most unguardable player in the Western Conference. Chet Holmgren is averaging 19.3 points and 8.2 rebounds while protecting the rim – he had 25 in the Hornets game and is shooting 57.6% from the field this season.
The Thunder’s efficiency numbers are off the charts: 121.6 PPG offense, 57.8% two-point shooting (4th in the league), and they’re grabbing 57.2 total rebounds per game. They’re also forcing 17.0 turnovers per game (3rd in the league) while only committing 12.1 themselves. The problem? They’re dealing with significant injuries. Alex Caruso is questionable, and more importantly, they’re without Jalen Williams and Aaron Wiggins – two key rotation pieces that logged major minutes. That depth matters when you’re trying to cover 17.5 on the road.
Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
New Orleans is absolutely devastated by injuries. Zion Williamson is out with a hamstring injury, Dejounte Murray won’t return until January with his Achilles issue, and Jordan Poole is sidelined with a quad injury. That’s three of their top scorers unavailable, which explains the 2-11 record. The Warriors game Sunday showed exactly what happens without those guys – they got torched from three (8-of-29 shooting) and couldn’t keep pace offensively.
But here’s what’s interesting: Trey Murphy III is playing well, averaging 19.8 points and shooting 35.6% from deep on 7.8 attempts per game. Jeremiah Fears, the rookie, is contributing 14.6 points per game and showing flashes. Against Golden State, Murphy had 20 and Fears added 17. The Pelicans are also averaging 22.8 assists per game and pulling down 58.2 total rebounds – they can compete on the glass.
The coaching change brings interim coach James Borrego, who knows this league and will have these guys playing hard for their jobs. First games under new leadership typically see extra effort, especially at home. The Pelicans shot 34.7% from three this season but went cold against the Warriors – regression to the mean says they’ll shoot better Monday night.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to pace and Thunder depth. Oklahoma City plays at 121.6 possessions per game, while New Orleans runs at 108.2 – that’s a massive differential. The Thunder want to push tempo, force turnovers (10.7 steals per game, #1 in the league), and get out in transition (14.4 fastbreak points per game). The Pelicans need to slow it down and grind this into a half-court game where Murphy can get clean looks from three.
The Thunder’s defensive efficiency is elite – they’re allowing just 106.2 PPG and holding opponents to 41.7% shooting. But the Pelicans play at home where they’re 1-5 this season, and desperate teams in front of their home crowd can make games competitive. New Orleans averages 15.4 turnovers per game, which means Oklahoma City’s pressure defense will create opportunities. The question is whether the Thunder have enough healthy bodies to put this away by 18+ points.
Looking at the TeamRankings matchup data, the Thunder rank #1 in opponent fastbreak points allowed (10.2), #1 in opponent points in the paint (37.1), and #2 in forcing opponent turnovers. They’re 6-0 at home and 7-1 on the road. The Pelicans rank last or near-last in almost every defensive category. But 17.5 points is a mountain in the NBA, especially on the road with rotation players out.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking the Pelicans +17.5, and here’s why: This number screams Oklahoma City blowout, but the Thunder are banged up and playing their third road game in four nights. Jalen Williams and Aaron Wiggins are out, which means Shai and Chet have to carry even more load. The Pelicans just fired their coach and will play inspired basketball for at least one night. James Borrego’s first game as interim coach brings that new-coach energy we always see in the NBA.
The Thunder will probably win this game – I’m not crazy enough to take Pelicans on the moneyline at +900. But 17.5 points is massive. New Orleans can shoot better than they did against Golden State (they won’t go 8-of-29 from three again), and Murphy/Fears will combine for 35+ points. If the Pelicans can keep this around a 12-15 point game going into the fourth quarter, they’ll cover as the Thunder coast.
The writing’s on the wall with this matchup: Vegas wants you on the Thunder, the public’s hammering Oklahoma City, and that 17.5 number hasn’t budged. I’ve seen this movie before – dominant team on the road, huge spread, injured opponents with nothing to lose. The favorite wins, the dog covers.
BASH’S BEST BET: Pelicans +17.5 – The Thunder’s depth issues and New Orleans’ interim coaching bump make this number too big to ignore. Load up on the points before the sharp money moves this line.
