The short -3.0 point spread on the struggling Mavericks is a misdirection; the true betting value lies in the Total set at 232.5. With star power missing from both sides—Anthony Davis (20.8 PPG) and Jordan Poole (17.3 PPG) out—a combined 38.1 PPG of consistent offense is stripped from the game. This clash of two depleted, low-morale offenses is expected to be a stagnant, ugly affair, making the Over/Under number significantly inflated by market reputation, not current reality.
The Setup: Pelicans at Mavericks
The books are hanging Dallas -3 against a Pelicans squad that’s limping into American Airlines Center at 2-13, and I’m supposed to believe New Orleans keeps this within a field goal? The Mavericks are sitting at 4-12 themselves, but here’s the kicker—both these teams are absolute dumpster fires right now, and Vegas is begging you to take the home favorite in a classic trap spot. The public’s all over Dallas laying the short number at home, which means we need to dig deeper into what’s really happening here. With Jordan Poole out for the Pelicans and Anthony Davis sidelined for the Mavericks, we’re looking at two depleted rosters trying to figure out who wants it less. The total’s set at 232.5, and that’s where the real story lives. I’m hammering this number before it moves, because sharp money knows what’s up here—this isn’t about who wins, it’s about how ugly it gets.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: November 21, 2025, 8:30 ET
Venue: American Airlines Center
Spread: Dallas Mavericks -3.0 (-110) | New Orleans Pelicans +3.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Mavericks -156 | Pelicans +126
Total: Over 232.5 (-110) | Under 232.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The market’s disrespecting the Pelicans here, but not without reason. New Orleans is 2-13 straight up and 1-6 on the road—that’s the kind of record that makes bettors salivate when they see a short spread. Dallas at 4-12 isn’t much better, but they’re 3-8 at home, which somehow looks respectable compared to New Orleans’ road disaster. The books know exactly what they’re doing with this -3 number. It’s small enough to make Dallas look like a gift, but large enough that if the Pelicans show any pulse whatsoever, that back door stays wide open.
Here’s what the oddsmakers are banking on: casual bettors see two struggling teams and automatically side with the home squad laying less than a field goal. The -156 moneyline on Dallas tells you everything—the books aren’t scared of Mavericks money, they’re inviting it. This is exactly the spot where Dallas burns you. Both teams are bottom-feeders in the Western Conference, sitting at 13th and 15th respectively, and the talent gap just isn’t what the spread suggests. With Poole out, the Pelicans lose 17.3 points per game, but Dallas is missing their leading scorer in Anthony Davis at 20.8 PPG. The market’s treating this like a mismatch when it’s really just two wounded animals limping around the court.
Pelicans Breakdown: What You Need to Know
New Orleans is in full-blown crisis mode at 2-13, and it’s not getting better anytime soon. Zion Williamson is putting up 21.3 points, 6.7 boards, and 4.7 assists per game, but one man can’t save this sinking ship. Trey Murphy III is contributing 19.9 PPG and 6.5 rebounds, giving them a second scoring option, but the depth chart falls off a cliff after that. With Jordan Poole sidelined due to a quadriceps injury, they’re losing their third-leading scorer at 17.3 PPG and 3.4 assists. That’s a massive blow to an already anemic offense.
Dejounte Murray remains out with an Achilles injury and won’t return until after New Year’s, which means the Pelicans are running with a skeleton crew in the backcourt. Karlo Matkovic is also out with a calf issue, further depleting their rotation. The 1-6 road record tells you everything you need to know about how this team travels—they don’t. They’re getting demolished away from home, and coming off a 125-118 loss to Denver where Nikola Jokic carved them up for a triple-double. This roster is gutted, the morale is shot, and they’re walking into a hostile environment on the second night of a back-to-back situation.
Mavericks Breakdown: The Other Side
Dallas isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire at 4-12, but at least they’re playing competitive basketball at home with a 3-8 record at American Airlines Center. The problem? Their best player isn’t playing. Anthony Davis is out with a calf injury and won’t be re-evaluated for another 7-to-10 days, robbing them of 20.8 PPG and 10.2 rebounds per game. That’s a double-double machine sitting on the sidelines, and it’s killing their interior presence.
Cooper Flagg has stepped up with 15.5 points, 6.3 boards, and 3.1 assists per game, showing flashes of why he was so highly touted. P.J. Washington is chipping in 14.4 PPG and 7.7 rebounds, giving them some frontcourt production to replace what Davis brought. But here’s the reality—Kyrie Irving is still out with a knee injury, and Dante Exum just underwent season-ending knee surgery. This roster is decimated. They just lost to the Knicks 113-111 at home on Wednesday, with Jalen Brunson torching them for 28 points. That’s the kind of game Dallas should win at home, and they couldn’t close it out. The 1-3 road record shows they can’t win away from home either, so we’re looking at a team that’s barely treading water in any environment.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
I’ve seen this movie before, and it never ends well for the favorite. Both teams are dealing with significant injury issues, both are struggling to find any consistency, and both are sitting in the Western Conference basement. The total of 232.5 is the play that screams value here. With Poole out for New Orleans and Davis sidelined for Dallas, you’re removing over 38 combined points per game from this matchup. That’s massive offensive firepower sitting in street clothes.
The Pelicans are 1-7 at home and 1-6 on the road, showing they can’t defend their own court or win away from it. Dallas is 3-8 at home and 1-3 on the road—slightly better at American Airlines Center but still losing two-thirds of their games there. Neither team has shown they can consistently put up points with their depleted rosters. Zion and Murphy will get theirs for New Orleans, and Flagg and Washington will produce for Dallas, but after that? It’s a wasteland of inconsistent role players trying to fill massive gaps.
The pace and efficiency metrics favor a lower-scoring affair. Both teams are trying to figure out rotations with key pieces missing, and that leads to stagnant offense and empty possessions. Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m not buying it—they want you on that over, thinking two bad defenses means points galore. Wrong. Two bad offenses with missing stars means a grinder that stays under the number.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Under 232.5 (-110) | 3 Units
This is the spot. The books are begging you to take the over on two teams that can’t score consistently with their current rosters. Poole’s out, Davis is out, and you’re expecting these squads to combine for 233+ points? Not happening. The Pelicans just gave up 125 to Denver and still couldn’t crack 120 themselves. Dallas just lost a home game to the Knicks by two points in a 113-111 grinder. These aren’t high-octane offenses—they’re struggling units trying to survive without their best players.
I’m also sprinkling half a unit on Pelicans +3 as a hedge, because if this game stays ugly like I expect, three points is gold in a rock fight. But the under is where the real money lives. Sharp money knows what’s up here—depleted rosters, struggling offenses, and a total that’s inflated by reputation rather than reality. I’m hammering the under at 232.5 and sleeping easy knowing that when two bad teams meet with missing stars, the scoreboard stays quiet. Lock it in.
