RBD closes the college football regular season with his most reliable system play — the NP Under — as East Carolina and Florida Atlantic square off in a high-total matchup that fits his proven model.
I can’t really say it was a stroke of good luck until the final score is in, but in the final week of the regular season I have a game that qualifies for an NP Under. So for right now, I feel fortunate. It’s my best play — in terms of both durability and profitability.
I’ve been making money off of NP Unders for five years, with its record of 140-87, 61%.
And this season is no different, it’s 10-5, 67%.
The Pirates/Owls game is Saturday, a 12:00 p.m. start time, EST.
The line opened at 67′.
The common number right now is 67 and that’s what I bought.
Overall this season both teams have an Over/Under record of 5-5; no edges for an Under.
Three of East Carolina’s five road games have stayed Under the posted total.
Four of five Florida Atlantic games have gone Over at Hm.
Using the number on this one, 67, and looking at recent play, three of East Carolina’s last five games have gone Over, while three of Florida Atlantic’s last five games have stayed Under 67. No edges.
For some icing on the cake, making this an easier decision for me to make, the NP Under is 10-5, all teams, but for a team-specific stat, Florida Atlantic has qualified for an NP Under spot twice this season.
Week one of the season they played Maryland.
The total was 61′.
They combined for 46, staying Under by double digits.
On October 18th they qualified in a game against South Florida.
The total was 73.
They combined for 61, another double-digit win.
There is a chance that line changes will make this game come off the board, no longer qualifying as an NP Under. If that’s the case, it stays as a play on my record but not for the record of NP spots. I’ll post an update as always, Saturday morning in the PredictEm Forum.
I also have a few games that, as of now, qualify for NP Overs. I’ll share them here in case anyone is looking for angles on these games:
Air Force at Colorado, San Diego State at New Mexico, and LSU and Oklahoma.
The Air Force and San Diego State games are today, so I’ll post those in the Forum Friday morning.
NP Overs are 5-10, a 67% Fade.
Normally that’s a definite play for me but I’m hesitant to play these because five years’ worth of data says they usually finish the season at about .500, so it’s due for a stat correction.
That’s it, short and sweet today (still celebrating the holiday weekend.)
If I add any plays I’ll post them in the forum.
Good luck to all of you as you close out your college regular season Battle with the Books.
