Can the Colts’ #1 offense break a decade-long losing streak in Jacksonville? Rich Crew reveals the ATS pick where history overrules season metrics.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Sunday, December 7, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: EverBank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
Odds: Colts -2 | Total: 47.5
Rundown
The market opened Indianapolis -1.5 and moved to -2, a mild but logical adjustment given the Colts’ top-end offensive efficiency. Indianapolis leads the league in points per play (0.537) and points per game (29.8), and they pair that with a top-10 scoring defense (20.8 allowed). Jacksonville is in solid form with three straight wins, but their per-play profile isn’t as sharp. The Jags sit at 0.376 points per play and 24.3 points per game, both good but not elite.
The tension here is efficiency versus venue. Indianapolis brings clear statistical edges, but they haven’t solved Jacksonville on the road in a decade. The Colts are 0-5 straight up in their last five trips to EverBank and 2-8 ATS in their last 10. Efficiency says Indianapolis. History says Jacksonville is live.
Where Indianapolis Holds the Edge
The Colts’ drive-level efficiency gives them multiple ways to win this matchup. Their 6.3 yards per play ranks #1 in the league and matches up well against a Jacksonville defense allowing 5.1 yards per play (#10). Indianapolis converts 40.74% on third down and 65.38% of red-zone trips into touchdowns, both stronger than Jacksonville’s defensive splits.
Turnover profile also favors the Colts. Indianapolis sits at +0.4 per game, while Jacksonville has hovered in the negative range (-0.5). In a projected one-score game, that’s meaningful. The Colts’ 43.89% rush rate allows them to control pace and avoid volatility — a classic “floor” advantage for road favorites.
The Venue Factor
Indianapolis’ efficiency edge has been real all season, but Jacksonville’s home dominance in this matchup has been equally real. The Jaguars have won nine straight at home against the Colts, are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 head-to-head meetings, and remain 5-0 straight up in their last five home games overall.
Jonathan Taylor’s efficiency (5.7 YPC) gives Indianapolis its best path to stability, but he runs into the league’s #1 run defense (3.9 YPC allowed, 82.4 rushing yards allowed per game). That matchup neutralizes one of Indy’s key advantages and forces more weight onto their passing game — a shift that historically hasn’t played well in this venue.
The Numbers That Drive the Matchup
- Points per game: IND 29.8 (#1) vs JAX 24.3 (#11)
- Yards per play: IND 6.3 (#1) vs JAX 5.1 allowed (#10)
- Third down: IND 40.74% vs JAX 39.87% allowed
- Red-zone TD rate: IND 65.38% vs JAX 60.00% allowed
- Turnover margin: IND +0.4 vs JAX -0.5
- Venue impact: Jacksonville 5-0 SU vs Indy at home in last five
The Colts check every efficiency box, but Jacksonville offers a decade of venue-specific performance that consistently tilts this matchup. It’s a clean “metrics vs. environment” divide — and one of the most persistent in the league.
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Market Analysis & Total
Indy -2 is a fair reflection of efficiency; the number hasn’t drifted because the venue introduces legitimate counterweight. The total remains 47.5, suggesting the market expects both offenses to play near season averages. Their last five meetings have all gone over the total, which aligns with both teams’ moderate defensive consistency and above-average explosive rates when these two meet.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Signals
| Metric | Indianapolis | Jacksonville | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 29.8 | 24.3 | Indianapolis |
| Yards Per Play | 6.3 | 5.1 | Indianapolis |
| Third Down | 40.74% | 39.87% allowed | Indianapolis |
| Red-Zone TD % | 65.38% | 60.00% allowed | Indianapolis |
| Turnover Margin | +0.4 | -0.5 | Indianapolis |
| ATS (Last 11) | 2-9 | 9-2 | Jacksonville |
| SU (Last 7 at Home) | 0-7 | 7-0 | Jacksonville |
Efficiency suggests Indianapolis owns the higher floor. History suggests Jacksonville consistently elevates at home in this matchup. That’s the crux: strong season-long metrics versus a venue trend that hasn’t cracked in a decade.
Rich Crew’s Betting Outlook
Prediction
Jaguars 27, Colts 24
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐ Jacksonville +2 — The venue trend isn’t noise; it’s long-term signal. Indianapolis brings the stronger efficiency profile, but their worst football consistently shows up in this stadium.
- ⭐⭐ Over 47.5 — This series has played fast and clean offensively. Both teams’ scoring efficiency tends to tick up in this matchup.
