Bryan Bash calls it like he sees it: the spread for Spurs vs. Thunder is a joke. With Wembanyama expected to play and San Antonio’s offense clicking, find out why this ATS pick is the ultimate “fade the public” spot.
The Setup: Spurs at Thunder
The books are hanging Oklahoma City -10 against a Spurs squad that just dismantled the Lakers 132-119 in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, and I’m supposed to believe San Antonio rolls over? The Thunder are 24-1 and riding the kind of momentum that matched the 2015-16 Warriors’ historic start, but here’s what sharp money knows: Victor Wembanyama is expected to play after that calf scare, and this Spurs team at 17-7 isn’t some pushover tanking squad anymore. The market’s disrespecting San Antonio here, and when you’re getting double digits with a team that has Wemby, De’Aaron Fox averaging 24 PPG, and Stephon Castle dropping 30 in their last outing, you better have a damn good reason. Oklahoma City demolished Phoenix 138-89 in their quarterfinal, sure, but that Suns team looked like they wanted to be anywhere else. This is a completely different animal.
The books are begging you to take the Thunder and lay the points with the best team in the league. I’ve seen this movie before, and it usually ends with the public getting torched. San Antonio’s 8-5 road record tells you they can travel and compete, while OKC’s perfect 12-0 home mark screams trap game when the number gets this fat. I’m not saying the Thunder won’t win—Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 32.6 PPG and looks unstoppable—but ten points is a mountain in today’s NBA, especially against a team with legitimate star power and playoff aspirations.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 13, 2025, 9:00 ET
Location: T-Mobile Arena
Current Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -10.0 (-115) | San Antonio Spurs +10.0 (-105)
Moneyline: Thunder -490 | Spurs +355
Total: 229.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let’s talk about why Vegas hung this number at ten. The Thunder are 24-1, tied for the best 25-game start in NBA history. They just annihilated Phoenix by 49 points in a game that was over by halftime. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is putting up MVP numbers at 32.6 points per game, and they’re perfect at home. The narrative writes itself, right? Wrong.
Here’s what the market wants you to ignore: San Antonio just hung 132 on the Lakers with Stephon Castle going nuclear for 30 points, 21 of them in the second half when the game mattered. Victor Wembanyama is averaging 26.2 PPG and 12.9 RPG—those are generational numbers from a guy who’s redefining what a big man can do. The Spurs are 17-7 and sitting fifth in the conference, not some lottery team getting run off the floor every night.
The line exists because the books know casual bettors see 24-1 and think it’s free money. They see that 49-point destruction of Phoenix and assume every game will be a blowout. But the Spurs aren’t the Suns—they’ve got multiple creators, a defensive anchor in Wembanyama, and enough offensive firepower with Fox and Castle to keep pace. This is exactly the spot where the favorite burns you, when the record looks too good and the spread gets too comfortable. The market’s banking on recency bias from that Phoenix demolition, but I’m not buying it. San Antonio has the talent to keep this within single digits, even if they don’t win outright.
Spurs Breakdown: What You Need to Know
San Antonio is not your father’s tanking Spurs team. At 17-7, they’re a legitimate playoff contender with a three-headed monster that can score with anyone. Victor Wembanyama is the foundation—26.2 PPG, 12.9 RPG, and 4.0 APG from a seven-footer who can shoot, protect the rim, and handle the ball. That’s not just All-Star numbers; that’s franchise-altering talent that changes how opponents have to play.
De’Aaron Fox brings the speed and scoring punch at 24 points per game with 6.3 assists, giving them a second elite creator who can break down defenses in transition and half-court sets. Then you’ve got Stephon Castle, who just dropped 30 on the Lakers and is averaging 18.2 PPG with 7.3 APG—that’s legitimate playmaking from your third option. Keldon Johnson adds another 17 PPG and provides the toughness and rebounding they need on the wing.
The concern is Wembanyama’s calf, but reports say he’s expected to play. If he suits up, this team has the firepower to hang with anyone, and their 8-5 road record proves they can win away from home. They’re not just showing up for a paycheck—they just beat the Lakers by 13 in a Cup quarterfinal. That’s a team with confidence and momentum.
Thunder Breakdown: The Other Side
Oklahoma City is the real deal, no question. At 24-1 with a perfect 12-0 home record, they’re playing championship-level basketball in December. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an MVP candidate at 32.6 PPG, 6.5 APG, and he’s doing it with elite efficiency. The guy is unguardable in the mid-range and gets to the line at will.
Chet Holmgren gives them a versatile big at 18.8 PPG and 8.0 RPG who can stretch the floor and protect the rim—though he’s not the same defensive anchor as Wembanyama. Jalen Williams is the perfect third piece at 17.3 PPG and 6.2 APG, providing secondary playmaking and scoring when Shai gets trapped. This is a deep, talented roster that’s clicking on all cylinders.
The loss of Isaiah Joe to a knee injury hurts their perimeter shooting depth, but it’s not a devastating blow. The real question is whether they can maintain that historic pace or if we’re due for some regression to the mean. That 49-point beatdown of Phoenix was impressive, but the Suns looked lifeless. The Spurs will bring a completely different level of competition, especially if Wembanyama plays. Can the Thunder cover ten at home? Sure. Will they? That’s where I’m getting skeptical.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether San Antonio can slow down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and whether Wembanyama can dominate the paint on both ends. The Thunder are 12-0 at home, but they haven’t faced a team with this kind of star power and size in their building yet. Wembanyama against Holmgren is the marquee matchup—two elite young bigs with completely different games. Wemby’s got the size and defensive impact, while Holmgren brings the shooting and mobility.
San Antonio’s 8-5 road record shows they can compete away from home, and they’re coming off a statement win against the Lakers where they scored 132 points. That’s not a fluke—they’ve got multiple guys who can get buckets. Fox’s speed in transition could cause problems for OKC’s defense, and if Castle gets hot like he did against LA, this game stays close.
The pace will be crucial. If the Thunder push tempo and get out in transition, they can blow this open. But if San Antonio controls the glass with Wembanyama and slows the game down, they can keep it within striking distance. The total sitting at 229.5 suggests the books expect a high-scoring affair, which favors the team getting points. In a shootout, I’ll take the points with the team that has the best player on the floor—and if Wemby plays, that might be him.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering this number before it moves: San Antonio Spurs +10 (-105) for 2 units. This line’s too fat, plain and simple. The Thunder are the better team, and they’ll probably win this game, but ten points against a Spurs squad with Wembanyama, Fox, and Castle is disrespectful. San Antonio just proved they can score with elite competition by dropping 132 on the Lakers, and their 17-7 record isn’t a mirage.
Oklahoma City is 24-1 and deserves respect, but that Phoenix blowout has everyone thinking every game will be a massacre. The Spurs aren’t the Suns—they’ve got legitimate stars and the coaching to keep this competitive. Even if Wembanyama is limited by that calf, they’ve got enough weapons to stay within double digits. This is exactly the spot where the public gets burned chasing the hot team, and I’m fading that narrative hard.
Give me the Spurs getting double digits all day long. The market’s disrespecting San Antonio, and I’m more than happy to take the other side. This game stays within single digits, and we cash with room to spare. Book it.
