The surging Chicago Bulls look for their third straight win as they head to State Farm Arena to face Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks.
The Setup: Bulls at Hawks
The Hawks are laying 5 points (BetOnline) at home against a Bulls team that just pulled off a road win in Cleveland, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Atlanta sits 15-14 overall and has the better conference ranking at 9th compared to Chicago’s 10th spot at 12-15. But here’s the thing — the Hawks are only 5-7 at home this season, while the Bulls have shown they can compete on the road at 5-9. More importantly, Atlanta is dealing with a massive personnel loss with Kristaps Porzingis out for at least two more weeks, and Chicago just got 24 points from both Matas Buzelis and Nikola Vucevic in a 136-125 road victory. Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I think the market is overvaluing Atlanta’s home court advantage given the current roster construction and efficiency profiles of both teams.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 21, 2025, 3:30 ET
Venue: State Farm Arena
Spread: Atlanta Hawks -5.0 (-110) | Chicago Bulls +5.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Hawks -200 | Bulls +170
Total: 246.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is giving Atlanta 5 points based primarily on conference positioning and the assumption that home court matters. The Hawks are 15-14 versus Chicago’s 12-15, and that three-game gap translates to roughly 2-3 points in the spread. Add in standard home court advantage of 2-3 points, and you get to this 5-point number. The total sitting at 246 points suggests the oddsmakers expect an uptempo game, which makes sense given both teams’ recent scoring outputs — Chicago just put up 136 in Cleveland, and Atlanta allowed 133 to Charlotte in their last outing.
But once you dig into the matchup data, this spread starts to feel stretched. Atlanta’s 5-7 home record is a red flag that home court isn’t providing the typical edge. Meanwhile, Chicago has been competitive on the road despite their 5-9 mark, and they’re coming off a game where Vucevic dominated the fourth quarter with 11 points and 6 rebounds in the final frame. The Bulls showed they can execute in crunch time away from home, which is exactly what you need to cover a 5-point spread or win outright.
The Porzingis absence is massive here. He’s averaging 19.2 points and 5.6 rebounds, and his floor spacing completely changes Atlanta’s offensive structure. Without him, the Hawks lose a primary scoring option and a defensive anchor who can protect the rim. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts toward a more compact margin.
Chicago Bulls Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Bulls are getting balanced production from their top three players. Coby White leads at 21.2 PPG with 5.2 assists, though he’s questionable for this game with left ankle soreness. If White can’t go, that’s a legitimate concern for Chicago’s perimeter scoring. However, Josh Giddey is averaging 20.1 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 8.8 assists, giving the Bulls a true playmaking hub who can control pace and create advantages. Giddey’s near triple-double production every night means Chicago doesn’t need to rely on one scorer.
Then there’s Vucevic, who just showed in Cleveland what he’s capable of when engaged. His 16.1 points and 9.3 rebounds per game might seem modest, but his 24-point, 15-rebound performance on Friday — including that dominant fourth quarter — proves he can still be a difference-maker. The Bulls are 7-6 at home but 5-9 on the road, which suggests they’re scrappy in hostile environments even if they don’t always get the win.
The main risk here is Coby White’s availability. If he’s out, Chicago loses their most efficient perimeter scorer, and that could force Giddey and Vucevic to shoulder too much offensive responsibility. Ayo Dosunmu is probable with a thumb issue, and Jalen Smith is probable with a quad contusion, so the Bulls should have most of their rotation intact.
Atlanta Hawks Breakdown: The Other Side
Atlanta’s offense runs through Jalen Johnson, who’s averaging 23.3 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 8.2 assists. Johnson is having a breakout season and gives the Hawks a versatile forward who can score, facilitate, and rebound. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is chipping in 20.7 PPG, providing secondary scoring and perimeter shooting. But here’s the problem — after those two, the depth chart gets thin quickly.
With Porzingis out, Atlanta loses their third-leading scorer at 19.2 PPG and a player who fundamentally changes their spacing. Porzingis can stretch the floor and punish mismatches, and without him, the Hawks become more predictable offensively. N’Faly Dante is out with a concussion, and Eli John Ndiaye is out due to coach’s decision, which further limits Atlanta’s frontcourt rotation.
The Hawks are 10-7 on the road but just 5-7 at home, which is an inverted split that screams inconsistency at State Farm Arena. When you do the math over 95-100 possessions, Atlanta’s home struggles combined with their depleted rotation make it hard to see them pulling away from a Bulls team that just executed in the fourth quarter on the road. I keep coming back to this efficiency gap — Atlanta’s offense without Porzingis isn’t efficient enough to cover 5 points against a Bulls team that can score with Giddey orchestrating.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and on the glass. Vucevic just grabbed 15 rebounds against Cleveland, and with Porzingis out, Atlanta doesn’t have a true rim protector to slow him down. Johnson is a good rebounder at 10.5 per game, but he’s not a traditional center who can body up Vucevic for 30+ minutes. That mismatch gives Chicago second-chance opportunities and easier scoring looks in the half-court.
Pace is another critical factor. The total of 246 suggests a faster game, but Chicago’s ability to control tempo through Giddey’s playmaking means they can dictate when to push and when to grind. If the Bulls can slow this game down and make it a half-court battle, they neutralize Atlanta’s transition offense and force the Hawks into contested jumpers without Porzingis spacing the floor.
Defensively, Chicago needs to contain Johnson and Alexander-Walker, who combine for nearly 44 points per game. But if the Bulls can make Atlanta’s role players beat them — guys who aren’t averaging double figures — then they have a real shot to keep this game within one possession throughout. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, especially when you factor in Atlanta’s home court struggles and Chicago’s recent road competitiveness.
The key possession battle will be Atlanta’s ability to score in transition versus Chicago’s ability to set their defense and force half-court execution. Given the Hawks’ thin depth and lack of a consistent third scorer with Porzingis out, I lean toward Chicago’s half-court defense being able to keep this game tight late.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Chicago Bulls +5 (-110) for 2 units. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Atlanta’s 5-7 home record tells me State Farm Arena isn’t providing the typical 2-3 point edge, and without Porzingis, the Hawks lose a 19.2 PPG scorer and their best floor spacer. Chicago just showed they can execute on the road in Cleveland, with Vucevic dominating the fourth quarter and Giddey orchestrating the offense.
The main risk here is Coby White’s questionable status with ankle soreness. If White is out, Chicago loses their leading scorer at 21.2 PPG, and that could tilt this game toward Atlanta’s favor. But even without White, Giddey and Vucevic have shown they can carry the offensive load, and the Bulls’ depth with Dosunmu and Smith both probable gives them enough firepower to stay within striking distance.
When you do the math over 95-100 possessions, I see a game that stays within 3-4 points in the final minutes. Atlanta doesn’t have the depth or efficiency without Porzingis to pull away, and Chicago has the playmaking and rebounding to keep this competitive throughout. Give me the Bulls catching 5 points in a game I think comes down to the final possession.
