Sacramento is in freefall, losing three of their last four games while battling a catastrophic injury report. Bryan Bash explores the market psychology and why, despite the massive 12-point spread, the professional money is still siding with Kevin Durant and the surging Rockets.
The Setup: Rockets at Kings
The Rockets are laying 12 points (WagerWeb) on the road in Sacramento, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Houston sits at 17-8 and fifth in the West. The Kings are 6-22, dead last in the conference at 15th. But here’s the thing — when you’re asking a road favorite to cover double digits, you need more than just record disparity. You need a real efficiency gap, rotation depth that holds up over 96 possessions, and a matchup that tilts decisively in one direction.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I think Houston gets there. The Kings are missing Domantas Sabonis (out 4-5 more weeks with a knee injury), Zach LaVine (ankle, being re-evaluated), and Drew Eubanks (thumb fracture). That’s not just their best rebounder and two of their top three scorers — it’s the entire foundation of their rotation. Meanwhile, Houston is rolling with Kevin Durant averaging 25.4 points per game and Alperen Sengun putting up 23.0 points and 9.3 rebounds. The Rockets are deeper, healthier, and frankly, they’re the better team by a significant margin right now.
My thesis is simple: Houston’s two-way versatility and rotation depth should create a margin that exceeds 12 points against a Kings team that’s missing its three most important players. The main risk here is Sacramento playing desperate at home and keeping it close through three quarters, but when you do the math over a full 48 minutes, I keep coming back to this efficiency gap.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 21, 2025, 10:00 ET
Venue: Golden 1 Center
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Rockets -12.0 (-110) / Kings +12.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Rockets -667 / Kings +464
- Total: 224.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
Let’s start with the obvious: the Rockets are 17-8, and the Kings are 6-22. That’s an 11-game gap in the standings, which immediately justifies a significant spread. But the number jumps to 12 because of the injury situation. Sacramento is without Sabonis, who’s averaging 17.2 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. That’s not just production — that’s their entire interior presence on both ends. LaVine, at 20.2 points per game, is their leading scorer, and he’s out too. When you lose your top scorer and your only legitimate rim protector/rebounder, you’re asking role players to handle 35-40 minutes against a Rockets team that can throw Durant, Sengun, and Amen Thompson (17.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, 5.2 assists) at you in waves.
The moneyline at -667 tells you everything you need to know about how the market views this game. That’s an implied probability of roughly 87% for a Houston win. The spread at 12 is asking whether the Rockets can win by two possessions more than expected — and given the talent and depth disparity, I think they can.
Here’s what I keep coming back to: Sacramento is 3-9 at home this season. They’re not defending their home court. They’re not even competitive in most of these games. The Kings just lost to Portland, a team that’s been inconsistent all year, by five points at home. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this team is functioning right now. They don’t have the firepower or the defensive structure to hang with a disciplined, deep Rockets squad.
Rockets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Houston’s strength is balance. Durant is the headline at 25.4 points per game, but Sengun is the engine. He’s averaging 23.0 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 7.0 assists — that’s a legitimate three-level hub who can score in the post, facilitate from the elbow, and crash the glass. Then you’ve got Thompson, who’s putting up 17.5 points with 7.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists. That’s three guys who can initiate offense and create advantages in different ways.
The Rockets are 9-6 on the road, which is solid but not elite. They’re not a team that blows everyone out away from home, but they’re disciplined and they don’t beat themselves. The key here is that they’re missing Tari Eason (leg) and Fred VanVleet (torn ACL, out for the season), but neither of those losses disrupts their core rotation. Durant, Sengun, and Thompson are all healthy and playing heavy minutes.
Houston’s recent win in Denver — a 115-101 road victory — tells you what this team can do when they’re locked in. Durant scored 31, and Reed Sheppard went for 28 points on 6-for-9 from three. That’s not just star power — that’s depth. When your role players can step up and hit shots, you’re not relying on one guy to carry you. That matters in a game like this, where Sacramento doesn’t have the personnel to match up across the board.
Kings Breakdown: The Other Side
Sacramento is in a brutal spot. They’re 6-22 overall and 3-9 at home, which means they’re losing by an average of more than they should be, even accounting for talent. Without Sabonis, they have no rim protection and no consistent rebounding presence. Without LaVine, they’re missing their most reliable scorer. DeMar DeRozan is averaging 17.9 points, but he’s not a guy who’s going to carry you offensively at this stage of his career. He’s a complementary piece, not a number-one option.
The Kings just lost to Portland at home, 98-93. That’s a Portland team that beat them twice in a home-and-home series, including an overtime game earlier in the week. If Sacramento can’t defend home court against the Trail Blazers, how are they supposed to hang with a Rockets team that’s deeper, more talented, and playing with more urgency?
Here’s the thing — Sacramento’s offensive efficiency is going to suffer without LaVine and Sabonis. They don’t have the shot creation or the interior scoring to keep pace with Houston. DeRozan can get you 18-20 points, but he’s not going to do it efficiently enough to offset the Rockets’ advantages everywhere else. And defensively, without Sabonis protecting the rim, Houston is going to get whatever they want in the paint. Sengun is going to feast.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests — except it doesn’t. Let me explain. On paper, you might think 12 points is a lot to ask of a road favorite, even against a bad team. But when you factor in the injury situation, the rotation depth, and the efficiency gap, this game tilts decisively toward Houston.
The Rockets have three guys who can score 20-plus on any given night. The Kings have one, and he’s out. Houston has Sengun, who can dominate the paint without Sabonis to contest him. Sacramento has no answer for that. The Rockets can run their offense through multiple initiators — Durant, Sengun, Thompson — which means they’re not predictable. The Kings, meanwhile, are going to rely on DeRozan and hope role players step up. That’s not a recipe for staying within 12 points.
Let’s talk possessions. If this game runs at a moderate pace — say, 96 possessions — Houston needs to outscore Sacramento by roughly 0.125 points per possession to cover 12. That’s not a huge ask when you’re the more efficient team with better shot creation, better rebounding, and better defensive versatility. Once you dig into the matchup data, the Rockets should be able to generate high-quality looks in the halfcourt, push the pace in transition off defensive rebounds, and limit Sacramento’s second-chance opportunities.
The total is set at 224.0, which implies a moderate-scoring game. I think that’s about right. Houston will score efficiently, but they’re not a team that’s going to run up 130 points on the road. Sacramento will struggle to get to 100 without LaVine and Sabonis. If the final score lands somewhere around 118-104, the Rockets cover and the total stays under.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Rockets -12.0 (-110) — 2 Units
I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Sacramento is 3-9 at home, and they just lost to Portland twice in three days. They’re missing their best player, their leading scorer, and their backup big. Houston is deeper, healthier, and significantly more talented. Durant and Sengun should combine for 50-plus points, and the Rockets’ role players have shown they can step up when needed.
The main risk here is Sacramento playing desperate basketball for three quarters and keeping it close enough that Houston doesn’t pull away until late. But even if that happens, the Rockets have the discipline and the depth to close this game strong. They’re 9-6 on the road, which means they know how to win away from home, and they’re facing a Kings team that’s given up on this season.
When you do the math over 96 possessions, Houston’s efficiency advantage should create a margin that exceeds 12 points. I’m laying the points with confidence. Lock it in.
