The 11–1 California Golden Bears host a disciplined Columbia Lions squad in their final non-conference test before ACC play. Bryan Bash breaks down why ball security and travel fatigue might be the deciding factors for the 8.5-point spread in Berkeley.
The Setup: Columbia at California
California’s laying 8.5 points at home against Columbia on Saturday afternoon, and at first glance, this looks like a classic mid-major-travels-west-coast setup. But here’s the thing – Columbia isn’t your typical Ivy League pushover this season. The Lions are 9-1 with some legitimately impressive defensive numbers, while Cal sits at 8-1 in their first season as an ACC program. Both teams are playing quality basketball, which makes this spread particularly interesting.
Let me walk you through why I’m backing the Golden Bears to cover this number at Haas Pavilion. The efficiency data from collegebasketballdata.com tells a story that goes beyond those shiny records, and when you dig into the adjusted metrics – which account for strength of schedule – California’s edge becomes clear. We’re looking at two teams with similar net ratings on paper, but the context of those numbers matters enormously.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Columbia @ California
Date: December 21, 2025
Time: 5:00 PM ET
Location: Haas Pavilion, Berkeley, CA
Spread: California -8.5
Total: 149/149.5
Records: Columbia 9-1, California 8-1
Why This Number Makes Sense
Here’s why this line makes sense when you examine the adjusted efficiency numbers. Columbia checks in with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 114.0 (ranked 75th nationally) and an adjusted defensive rating of 104.1 (102nd). That’s a net rating of plus-9.9, good for 74th in the country according to collegebasketballdata.com. California counters with 113.7 adjusted offensive efficiency (81st) and 102.6 adjusted defensive rating (76th), producing an 11.1 net rating that ranks 66th nationally.
On the surface, that’s nearly identical. But the key word is “adjusted” – and that adjustment accounts for schedule strength. Columbia’s 9-1 record includes wins over Sarah Lawrence (92-44), UAlbany (93-65), and Fairfield (106-77). Their only loss came at Stony Brook by four points. California’s schedule features wins over Utah, Pacific, and Northwestern State – not world-beaters, but a significant step up in competition level.
The raw efficiency numbers support Cal’s advantage at home. California posts a 117.4 offensive rating (99th) against Columbia’s 119.4 (79th), but the Golden Bears’ 98.7 defensive rating (70th nationally) compares very favorably to Columbia’s 96.3 (44th). That defensive gap narrows when you adjust for competition, and playing at Haas Pavilion – where Cal has been dominant – tips the scales further.
Columbia’s Situation
The Lions are rolling offensively, ranking 33rd nationally in effective field goal percentage at 57.7%. They’re shooting 39.6% from three-point range (20th in the nation) and 50.2% overall from the field (34th). Kenny Noland leads the way at 17.1 points per game, while Zine Eddine Bedri provides inside presence with 12.8 points and 7.4 rebounds per contest. This is a balanced attack with five players averaging between 9.1 and 17.1 points.
Columbia’s defense has been legitimately impressive, holding opponents to 39.8% shooting (54th) and just 29.7% from three (67th nationally). They’re allowing only 65.6 points per game, which ranks 39th in the country. That’s not just good defense – it’s elite-level performance that’s kept them in every game.
But here’s the concern: Columbia ranks 277th in turnovers per game at 13.5, with a turnover ratio of 0.2 that sits 274th nationally. They’re also 307th in steals per game at just 5.6. Against better competition that can pressure the ball and force mistakes, those turnover issues become magnified. Their offensive rebounding percentage of 30.7% ranks just 195th, meaning they’re not getting many second chances.
California’s Situation
The Golden Bears bring a similar offensive profile with an 81.9 scoring average (102nd) and 38.1% three-point shooting (32nd nationally). Dai Dai Ames leads at 18.6 points per game, but the depth is impressive – four players averaging between 13.3 and 18.6 points. Justin Pippen is the facilitator at 4.3 assists per game (125th nationally), and that ball movement creates quality looks.
Where California separates itself is ball security. They’re turning it over just 11.0 times per game (86th) with a turnover ratio of 0.2 that ranks 66th – significantly better than Columbia’s 274th ranking in that category. Cal also shoots 74.5% from the free throw line (92nd) compared to Columbia’s 72.0% (163rd). In a close game, those free throws matter.
The Golden Bears’ defensive rating of 98.7 (70th) holds up against quality competition, and they’re blocking 4.2 shots per game (88th nationally). Lee Dort provides interior defense at 6.6 rebounds per game, and Cal’s length bothers perimeter shooters. At Haas Pavilion, where the crowd creates genuine home court advantage, California has been tough to beat.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Columbia’s ability to handle pressure and protect the basketball. The Lions are averaging 13.5 turnovers per game against inferior competition. California’s not an elite forcing defense – they rank 325th in steals per game at just 5.2 – but they don’t need to be. Columbia’s tendency to turn it over is self-inflicted.
Let me walk you through the math here. Both teams play at similar tempos – Columbia at 68.1 possessions per game (196th) and Cal at 69.8 (139th). Call it 70 possessions in this game. If Columbia turns it over even 12 times (below their season average), that’s 12 possessions where Cal gets the ball without having to defend. Do that math over 70 possessions, and you’re looking at a 17% possession advantage for the home team. That’s massive.
The rebounding edge goes to Columbia – they’re grabbing 43.6 boards per game (9th nationally) compared to Cal’s 36.1 (223rd). But neither team crashes the offensive glass particularly well. Columbia’s 30.7% offensive rebounding rate ranks 195th, while Cal sits 315th at 27.1%. This becomes a half-court game where execution matters more than second-chance points.
I keep coming back to those turnover numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Columbia’s 274th ranking in turnover ratio against California’s 66th ranking creates a fundamental mismatch in ball security. When you’re traveling cross-country to play in a hostile environment, you can’t afford to give away 13-14 possessions. The Lions haven’t faced this level of pressure and crowd noise in their cupcake schedule.
My Play
The Pick: California -8.5 (2 units)
I’m backing the Golden Bears to cover at home. Columbia’s a good team that’s been taking care of business against inferior competition, but this is a massive step up in class and environment. The cross-country travel, the Haas Pavilion atmosphere, and California’s superior ball security create the perfect storm for a comfortable Cal victory.
The main risk here is if Columbia gets hot from three-point range – they’re shooting 39.6% on the season – and steals possessions with offensive rebounds. If Noland and O’Keefe catch fire and Columbia somehow limits turnovers to single digits, this could be a tight game throughout.
I’ve considered all of that, and the turnover differential is still too massive to ignore. Columbia’s giving the ball away 13.5 times per game against teams like Sarah Lawrence and UAlbany. What happens when they face legitimate ACC-level athletes in a raucous road environment? I’m projecting California 82, Columbia 71. Lay the points with the Golden Bears.
