Will Wade’s Wolfpack enter Greensboro seeking a statement win to solidify their NCAA Tournament resume. Bryan Bash explores the market psychology and why the line has held at -6.5 despite Ole Miss’s historical defensive reputation under Chris Beard.
The Setup: Ole Miss at NC State
NC State’s laying 6.5 to 7 points against Ole Miss on a neutral court Saturday afternoon, and at first glance, this looks like a straightforward power matchup. But here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread might actually be undervaluing the Wolfpack. NC State ranks #11 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 122.6, while Ole Miss checks in at a pedestrian #116 at 111.1. That’s an 11.5-point gap in adjusted offensive efficiency alone. The Rebels do play better defense (#104 in adjusted defensive efficiency versus NC State’s #174), but we’re talking about a team that scores at an elite level facing a squad that’s been mediocre offensively all season. This game lives and dies on whether Ole Miss can slow down one of the nation’s most efficient offenses without the personnel to match NC State’s firepower.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Ole Miss (5-4) vs NC State (6-3)
Date: December 21, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Neutral Site
Spread: NC State -6.5 (DraftKings) / -7 (Bovada)
Total: 146.5
Moneyline: NC State -265 to -300, Ole Miss +215 to +250
Why This Number Makes Sense
Let me walk you through the efficiency gap that justifies this spread. NC State’s adjusted offensive efficiency of 122.6 ranks #11 in the country according to collegebasketballdata.com – that’s elite company. They’re shooting 50.0% from the field (#35 nationally) and a scorching 39.8% from three (#16). Their effective field goal percentage of 58.8% ranks #20 nationally, and their true shooting percentage of 62.9% is #16 in the country. These aren’t just good numbers – they’re exceptional.
Here’s why this line makes sense: Ole Miss plays at a glacial pace (67.4 possessions per game, #222 nationally), while NC State is even slower at 62.6 (#329). In a game with roughly 65 possessions, that 11.5-point adjusted offensive efficiency gap translates to real points. Do that math over 65 possessions, and you’re looking at a natural 7-8 point advantage for NC State just based on offensive execution.
The Rebels do have a defensive edge – their adjusted defensive efficiency of 104.2 (#104) is significantly better than NC State’s 107.8 (#174). They’re holding opponents to 41.0% from the field (#81 nationally) and just 32.9% from three (#188). But here’s the problem: Ole Miss’s offensive struggles are too glaring to ignore. They rank #232 in points per game at 75.3 and #235 in effective field goal percentage at 50.8%. Against a team that can really score, those offensive limitations become fatal.
Ole Miss’s Situation
The Rebels come in at 5-4 with some concerning offensive trends. Their 75.3 points per game ranks #232 nationally, and when you’re shooting just 44.6% from the field (#219), you’re going to struggle to keep pace with elite offensive teams. The three-point shooting is respectable at 35.3% (#120), but the volume and efficiency just aren’t there.
What Ole Miss does well is defend and protect the rim. They’re blocking 5.8 shots per game (#12 nationally), which is elite. That interior presence has helped them hold opponents to 68.0 points per game (#76). The problem? They’re 1-3 in their last four games, with losses to St. John’s, Miami, and a heartbreaker to Utah. The only recent wins came against Alabama A&M and Southern Miss – not exactly resume builders.
Ilias Kamardine leads the team at 14.0 points and 4.4 assists per game, but there’s no dominant scorer here. Malik Dia (13.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG) and AJ Storr (12.4 PPG) provide secondary scoring, but this is a team that struggles to crack 70 points consistently. Against NC State’s pace and offensive firepower, that’s a massive problem.
NC State’s Situation
The Wolfpack are 6-3 and playing some of the most efficient offensive basketball in the country. That 89.2 points per game ranks #24 nationally, but it’s how they’re scoring that matters. The 50.0% field goal shooting and 39.8% three-point shooting create an offense that’s nearly impossible to stop when they’re clicking.
Darrion Williams (16.7 PPG) leads a balanced attack that features five players averaging double figures. Quadir Copeland (14.4 PPG, 4.9 APG) runs the show, while Ven-Allen Lubin (13.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG) provides interior presence. The 16.9 assists per game (#66 nationally) show this is a team that shares the ball and finds good shots.
The concern is defense – that 107.8 adjusted defensive efficiency ranks #174, and they’re allowing 75.8 points per game (#243). They just gave up 83 to Auburn and 77 to Kansas in recent losses. But here’s the thing: Ole Miss isn’t Auburn or Kansas offensively. The Rebels rank #184 in offensive rating compared to NC State’s #7 offensive rating at 142.1. That’s not a typo – seventh in the nation.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Ole Miss can impose their defensive identity on NC State’s elite offense. The Rebels will try to slow the pace, protect the rim with their #12 ranked shot-blocking, and force NC State into contested jumpers. The problem? NC State is #16 in the country in three-point shooting. They don’t need to get to the rim to score efficiently.
I keep coming back to those offensive efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. NC State’s 122.6 adjusted offensive efficiency versus Ole Miss’s 111.1 adjusted offensive efficiency is a canyon-sized gap. Even if Ole Miss slows the pace to 63-65 possessions, NC State should score in the mid-80s based on their efficiency metrics. Can Ole Miss score 78-80 to keep this within the number? Their recent form says no – they’ve scored 58, 66, and 74 in three of their last five games.
The three-point battle is critical. NC State shoots 39.8% from deep while Ole Miss allows 32.9% (#188). That’s a favorable matchup for the Wolfpack. On the other end, Ole Miss shoots 35.3% from three against a defense allowing 35.2% (#288). The math slightly favors Ole Miss there, but not enough to overcome the overall offensive gap.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: NC State’s ball movement (16.9 assists per game) against Ole Miss’s perimeter defense. The Rebels don’t force many turnovers (7.6 steals per game, #152), so they’ll need to win with halfcourt defense. Against a team that moves the ball this well and shoots this efficiently, that’s asking a lot.
My Play
I’m backing NC State -6.5 to -7 for 2 units. The adjusted efficiency gap is too massive to ignore, and Ole Miss simply doesn’t have the offensive firepower to stay within a touchdown of an elite scoring team. I’m projecting this one around NC State 84, Ole Miss 74, which covers the 7 comfortably.
The main risk here is if NC State goes cold from three and Ole Miss’s rim protection forces them into a grinding, ugly game in the 60s. That’s possible given the pace metrics. But even in a slower game, NC State’s efficiency advantage should produce 6-8 points of separation. The Wolfpack are simply too good offensively, and Ole Miss has shown nothing in recent games to suggest they can score enough to keep this close.
This is a neutral court game, so there’s no home cooking to worry about. Give me the team that ranks #11 in adjusted offensive efficiency over the team that ranks #232 in scoring and has lost three of four. Sometimes the numbers tell you exactly what’s going to happen – this is one of those times.
