The #23 Florida Gators look to extend their 12-game home winning streak against a Colgate Raiders squad that has struggled to find its footing on the road. Bryan Bash breaks down why Florida’s elite rebounding margin is the decisive factor for today’s massive spread in Gainesville.
The Setup: Colgate at Florida
Florida’s laying 28.5 points (Bovada) at home against Colgate, and I can already hear it: That’s way too many points, even against a Patriot League team. Look, I get the hesitation. Big spreads are scary, especially in December when everyone’s still figuring things out. But here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t just a talent gap. This is a complete style mismatch that favors the home team in every possible way.
Florida sits at #21 nationally in adjusted net efficiency with a 19.3 rating, while Colgate checks in at #138 with just a 2.7 mark. That’s a massive 16.6-point gap in adjusted efficiency, and we’re getting a spread that’s only 10 points higher than that. The Gators are an elite defensive team (#9 in adjusted defensive efficiency at 95.3) facing a Colgate squad that plays at a glacial pace (65.1 possessions per game, #292 nationally). Let me walk you through why this number actually makes sense – and why there might even be value on Florida.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Colgate (6-4) at Florida (5-3)
Date: December 21, 2025
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Venue: Stephen C. O’Connell Center, Gainesville, FL
Spread: Florida -28.5
Total: 153.5
Source: DraftKings
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap tells you everything you need to know about this matchup. Florida’s defensive rating of 96.8 (#48 nationally) is 6.6 points per 100 possessions better than Colgate’s offensive rating of 103.4. On the other end, Florida’s offensive rating of 112.3 sits 8.9 points higher than Colgate’s defensive rating of 103.4. Do that math over 70 possessions – splitting the difference between Florida’s #25 pace (74.3) and Colgate’s #292 pace (65.1) – and you’re looking at a natural margin in the high 20s.
But here’s where it gets even more lopsided: Florida absolutely dominates the glass. The Gators rank #1 nationally in rebounds per game at 47.2 and #31 in offensive rebounding percentage at 36.0%. Colgate? They’re #361 in offensive rebounding percentage at just 22.6% and #277 in total rebounds at 34.1 per game. That’s not just a rebounding advantage – it’s why Florida will get 8-10 more possessions than their opponent, even at Colgate’s preferred slower pace.
The three-point defense matchup is equally brutal for the Raiders. Florida allows just 26.0% from deep (#8 nationally), while Colgate shoots 34.8% from three (#137). Colgate’s going to struggle to generate efficient offense against this length and athleticism, and they don’t have the rebounding prowess to create second chances. I keep coming back to those rebounding numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore – a 13-rebound per game gap is massive.
Colgate’s Situation
Let’s give credit where it’s due: Colgate takes care of the basketball. They rank #70 nationally in turnovers per game at just 10.7, and they’re efficient shooters when they get good looks (50.5% from the field, #31 nationally). Point guard Jalen Cox runs the show with 5.4 assists per game (#50 nationally), and forward Andrew Alekseyenko provides a solid interior presence at 13.9 points per game.
But here’s the problem – everything Colgate does well gets neutralized by their pace and rebounding deficiencies. They want to slow the game down and execute in the halfcourt, which normally would help them stay competitive. Against Florida’s elite defense and overwhelming rebounding advantage, though, that slow pace just means fewer opportunities to score while Florida methodically pulls away. Their adjusted offensive efficiency of 110.7 (#124) is solid for the Patriot League, but it’s built against mid-major competition. The step up to an SEC team with a top-10 adjusted defense is enormous.
The recent results tell the story: Colgate lost by 8 at St. Bonaventure, then feasted on overmatched opponents like St. John Fisher (44-point win) and SUNY-Oneonta (35-point win). They haven’t seen anything close to Florida’s combination of size, speed, and defensive intensity.
Florida’s Situation
The Gators are built to absolutely bully a team like Colgate. Thomas Haugh leads the way at 18.6 points per game (#69 nationally), but the real story is the frontcourt depth. Alex Condon (15.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG) and Rueben Chinyelu (10.2 PPG, 11.5 RPG – #5 nationally) give Florida a size and athleticism advantage that Colgate simply cannot match. Chinyelu alone averages more rebounds per game than any Colgate player.
Florida’s pace of 74.3 possessions per game (#25) is nearly 10 possessions faster than what Colgate wants to play. The Gators will push tempo off makes and misses, and Colgate’s poor offensive rebounding means Florida will control the pace entirely. When you’re getting 75+ possessions and you’re this much better on both ends, blowouts happen.
The shooting percentages look concerning – Florida’s just 27.3% from three (#352) and 43.3% from the field (#278) – but context matters. They’ve played a brutal schedule with losses at UConn and Duke, plus a win over Providence. Their adjusted offensive efficiency of 114.6 (#69) accounts for opponent strength, and it’s significantly better than their raw numbers suggest. Against Colgate’s defense, Florida should get cleaner looks than they’ve seen in weeks.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on the glass, and it’s not even close. Florida’s 47.2 rebounds per game against Colgate’s 34.1 is a 13-rebound gap. Even if Colgate plays their best rebounding game of the season, they’re still getting destroyed by 8-10 boards. That translates directly to possessions, and possessions against an elite defense are worth their weight in gold.
The pace battle heavily favors Florida. Colgate wants 65 possessions; Florida wants 74. At home, with the crowd behind them and a massive talent advantage, the Gators will dictate tempo. Let’s say this game lands at 70 possessions – that’s 5 more than Colgate wants. Those extra possessions, combined with Florida’s efficiency edge, add up quickly. Do the math: a 9-point per 100 possession advantage over 70 possessions equals a 6.3-point swing just from efficiency. Add in 8-10 extra possessions from offensive rebounding, and you’re looking at another 8-12 points. That’s a 15-18 point natural advantage before we even consider home court.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Florida’s interior defense versus Colgate’s inability to crash the offensive glass. Colgate ranks #361 in offensive rebounding percentage – that’s bottom 10 in the entire country. When they miss (and they will against Florida’s #33 opponent field goal percentage defense), the possession is over. Florida will grab the board and push. Colgate’s half-court defense will be scrambling all day.
The three-point shooting matchup also heavily favors Florida. The Gators defend the three at an elite level (26.0% allowed, #8 nationally), while Colgate isn’t a volume three-point shooting team anyway. Colgate’s going to have to score in the paint against Condon and Chinyelu, and that’s a losing proposition.
My Play
The Pick: Florida -28.5 (2 units)
I’m laying the points with Florida, and I’m doing it with confidence. The efficiency gap, rebounding dominance, and pace advantage all point to a comfortable Gators victory. My number on this game is Florida by 32-35, so we’re getting value at 28.5. I’m projecting something in the neighborhood of Florida 88, Colgate 55.
The main risk here is if Florida takes their foot off the gas in the second half or if Colgate gets unconscious from three-point range early and builds some confidence. But I’ve considered all of that, and the rebounding advantage is still too massive to ignore. Even if Colgate shoots well, Florida’s going to get 10-12 more shot attempts. That’s an insurmountable edge.
This is a noon tip on a Saturday before Christmas. Florida’s had time to prepare, they’re at home, and they’re facing a team that does nothing to threaten their strengths. The Gators will establish dominance on the glass early, push pace, and pull away in the second half. Lay the points.
