Handicapper Bryan Bash dives into the massive efficiency chasm as the #10 BYU Cougars host Eastern Washington at the Marriott Center tonight.
The Setup: Eastern Washington at BYU
BYU’s laying 35.5 points at home against Eastern Washington, and I can already hear it: That’s an absurd number, even against a struggling Big Sky team. Look, I get the hesitation. Covering five touchdowns in college basketball requires total domination from start to finish. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t just a good team beating a bad team – this is a chasm so wide it might justify this massive spread.
Here’s the thing – BYU ranks 14th nationally in adjusted net efficiency at +21.6, while Eastern Washington sits at 218th with a -3.7 mark. That’s a 25.3-point gap in adjusted efficiency, and we’re getting a number that’s only 10 points higher than that raw difference. The Cougars are 7-1 and rolling through opponents at the Marriott Center, where they’ve been absolutely suffocating. Eastern Washington is 2-7 and getting torched on defense every single night. Let me walk you through why this number, as scary as it looks, might actually have value.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Eastern Washington (2-7) @ BYU (7-1)
Date: December 22, 2025
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Marriott Center, Provo, UT
Spread: BYU -35.5 (DraftKings) / -35 (Bovada)
Total: 161.5 (DraftKings) / 161 (Bovada)
Moneyline: Not available
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap tells the entire story here. According to collegebasketballdata.com, BYU’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 21st nationally at 120.0, while their adjusted defensive efficiency sits at 31st at 98.4. Eastern Washington? They’re 156th in adjusted offense at 108.7 and 277th in adjusted defense at 112.4. That’s not just a talent gap – it’s a fundamental difference in how these teams function on both ends of the floor.
Here’s why this line makes sense: BYU’s offensive rating of 139.8 ranks 9th in the nation. They’re scoring 1.40 points per possession, which is elite-level efficiency. Eastern Washington’s defensive rating sits at 114.4, ranking 300th nationally. They’re allowing 1.14 points per possession. Do that math over 60-65 possessions, and you’re looking at a 15-18 point advantage for BYU on offense alone before we even consider what happens when Eastern Washington has the ball.
And when the Eagles do have possession? BYU’s defensive rating of 111.7 against Eastern Washington’s offensive rating of 108.0 creates another efficiency edge. The Cougars defend the three-point line exceptionally well, holding opponents to 31.6% (135th nationally), while Eastern Washington’s defense is getting shredded from deep, allowing 40.3% (361st nationally). That’s a catastrophic defensive weakness meeting a team that shoots 37.4% from three (46th nationally).
Eastern Washington’s Situation
The Eagles aren’t completely devoid of talent. Isaiah Moses is a legitimate scorer, averaging 18.6 points per game (73rd nationally), and they shoot a respectable 48.1% from the field overall (71st). Their effective field goal percentage of 54.6% ranks 94th, so they can make shots when they get good looks.
But here’s where it falls apart: Eastern Washington’s defense is a sieve. They rank 352nd in opponent field goal percentage at 49.2%, and that 361st ranking in opponent three-point percentage (40.3%) is just brutal. Teams are getting whatever they want against this defense. They’re also undersized on the glass, ranking 286th in rebounds per game at 33.9, and their offensive rebounding percentage of 29.5% (243rd) means they won’t generate many second chances.
Looking at recent form, they’ve lost four of their last five, including a 24-point beatdown at Utah and a 15-point loss to Washington State. The one win came against Kansas City, a team significantly worse than BYU. They’re turning the ball over 14.4 times per game (317th), and against BYU’s pressure defense that forces 8.2 steals per game (96th), those turnovers could snowball quickly.
BYU’s Situation
The Cougars are absolutely rolling. They’ve won seven straight, and their last five games show complete dominance: 100-53 over UC Riverside, 93-57 over Pacific, 85-67 over Abilene Christian. They’re not just winning – they’re destroying overmatched opponents. That 91-60 victory over California Baptist is particularly relevant because Eastern Washington lost to that same Cal Baptist team 83-88.
AJ Dybantsa leads the way at 19.4 points per game (49th nationally), but this is a balanced attack with three players averaging over 17 points. Richie Saunders adds 19.1 (53rd), and Robert Wright III contributes 17.0 while dishing 6.1 assists per game (19th nationally). That’s elite playmaking from the point guard spot.
What separates BYU is their discipline. They turn the ball over just 9.6 times per game (22nd nationally), which means they’re maximizing possessions. They shoot 49.5% from the field (47th) and 37.4% from three (46th), and they get to the free throw line effectively. At home in the Marriott Center, they control tempo with a 60.9 pace (340th), which means they dictate how this game unfolds.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on BYU’s ability to exploit Eastern Washington’s defensive catastrophe. The Eagles allow 49.2% shooting and 40.3% from three – those are bottom-10 nationally numbers. BYU shoots 49.5% and 37.4% from three against actual competition. The Cougars should get clean looks all night long.
I keep coming back to those defensive efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Eastern Washington ranks 300th in defensive rating, and they’re facing the 9th-ranked offensive rating in the country. That’s a 15-20 point swing right there over the course of a full game.
The pace factor also favors BYU. They play at 60.9 possessions per game, while Eastern Washington runs at 67.1. BYU controls the tempo at home, which means they’ll slow this down, execute in the halfcourt, and methodically break down a defense that can’t stop anybody. Every possession becomes a high-percentage opportunity for the Cougars.
The rebounding edge goes to BYU as well. They grab 39.4 boards per game (84th) compared to Eastern Washington’s 33.9 (286th). Keba Keita averages 7.1 rebounds (157th nationally), and BYU’s size advantage should create second-chance opportunities while limiting Eastern Washington to one shot per possession.
My Play
The Pick: BYU -35.5 (2 units)
I’ve considered all the typical concerns about laying this many points – garbage time, BYU taking their foot off the gas, a random hot shooting night from Eastern Washington – and the efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. BYU is 25+ points better than Eastern Washington according to adjusted metrics, they’re at home where they’ve been dominant, and they’re facing a defense that ranks in the bottom 10% of Division I.
The main risk here is if BYU empties the bench with 10 minutes left and Eastern Washington goes on a meaningless run. But Kevin Young’s team has shown no mercy against overmatched opponents this season. That 47-point destruction of UC Riverside and 36-point demolition of Pacific show they’re comfortable stepping on throats.
I’m projecting BYU 94, Eastern Washington 55. The Cougars shoot 52% from the field, control the glass, and force 16+ turnovers. Eastern Washington gets their 75-80 points in a typical game, but BYU’s elite defense and controlled pace keep them in the mid-50s. That’s a 39-point margin, which gives us cushion on this number. Lay the points with confidence.
