Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby have been ruled out for tonight’s trip to Minneapolis. Bryan Bash breaks down how the 7-point point spread reacts to a Knicks team missing its primary engine.
The Setup: Knicks at Timberwolves
The Timberwolves are laying 7 points at Target Center on Tuesday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Minnesota sits at 19-10 with an 11-5 home record, while the Knicks come in at 20-8 but just 5-6 on the road. Here’s the thing — this line isn’t just about team records. It’s about Jalen Brunson sitting out with an ankle injury, and the market pricing in exactly what happens when you remove 29.1 points and 6.6 assists per game from a team that runs almost everything through their lead guard.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I’m leaning into Minnesota’s side. The Knicks just watched Brunson drop 47 points against Miami in their last game, but now they’re heading into Target Center without him, without OG Anunoby (ankle), and without Guerschon Yabusele (illness). That’s three rotation pieces gone, and the Timberwolves have Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle — a former Knick who knows this roster inside and out — ready to exploit every crack in New York’s depleted depth chart.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 23, 2025, 8:00 ET
Venue: Target Center
Spread: Minnesota Timberwolves -7.0 (-110) | New York Knicks +7.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Timberwolves -263 | Knicks +210
Total: Over/Under 227.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market opened Minnesota at -7, and that number reflects two critical factors: home court advantage and the absence of Jalen Brunson. When you lose a player averaging 29.1 points and 6.6 assists, you’re not just losing production — you’re losing the engine that dictates offensive rhythm, creates shots for others, and controls tempo in crunch time.
Karl-Anthony Towns had just two points in 29 minutes against Miami, which tells you how much the Knicks lean on Brunson to generate offense. Sure, Mikal Bridges went off for 24 points on 6-of-7 from three, but that kind of efficiency isn’t sustainable, especially on the road against a Timberwolves defense that’s built to chase shooters off the line and force contested looks.
Minnesota’s 11-5 home record isn’t just a surface stat — it’s rooted in how they control pace and efficiency at Target Center. Anthony Edwards is averaging 28.3 points per game, Julius Randle adds 22.5 points and 5.6 assists, and this is a team that can punish you in transition and in the halfcourt. The Knicks are 5-6 on the road for a reason: they struggle to maintain their offensive identity away from Madison Square Garden, and now they’re doing it without their best player.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. The Timberwolves have the firepower to push tempo and the defensive versatility to make life miserable for a Knicks team that’s suddenly asking Bridges and Towns to carry the entire offensive load. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts.
Knicks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Without Brunson, the Knicks are asking Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges to become primary creators, and that’s not their natural role. Towns is averaging 21.6 points and 11.6 rebounds, but he’s a big who thrives off organized sets and clean post touches — not off the dribble creation that Brunson provides. Bridges is a complementary scorer who benefits from catch-and-shoot opportunities, not someone who’s built to run an offense for 35 minutes.
Josh Hart will likely see an expanded role, but he’s averaging just 13 points in spot duty, and he’s not the kind of player who can replace Brunson’s shot creation. The Knicks are 14-2 at home because they control pace and dictate terms in their building. On the road at 5-6, they’re a different team — less efficient, less comfortable, and now without their best player.
The main risk here is that the Knicks’ defensive identity keeps them in this game. They’ve been solid on that end all season, and Towns’ rim protection can neutralize some of Minnesota’s interior looks. But offense wins on the road, and without Brunson, the Knicks are going to struggle to generate clean looks over 96 possessions.
Timberwolves Breakdown: The Other Side
Minnesota is 19-10 and sitting fifth in the Western Conference, but their 11-5 home record tells the real story. Anthony Edwards is playing at an All-NBA level with 28.3 points per game, and Julius Randle — who spent years in New York — knows exactly how to attack this Knicks defense. Randle’s averaging 22.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 5.6 assists, and he’s going to relish this matchup against his former team.
The Timberwolves just beat Milwaukee 103-100 behind Edwards’ 24 points and timely threes from Donte DiVincenzo and Terrence Shannon Jr. That depth matters. Even if Jaden McDaniels is questionable with an oblique injury, Minnesota has the rotation pieces to exploit New York’s depleted backcourt. Joe Ingles is out for personal reasons, but he’s a fringe rotation player — not someone who changes the calculus of this game.
Here’s the thing — Minnesota can win this game multiple ways. They can push tempo with Edwards in transition, they can grind it out in the halfcourt with Randle posting up, or they can hunt mismatches and force the Knicks into rotations they’re not comfortable with. That versatility is why this line sits at 7, and it’s why I think Minnesota covers comfortably.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests — but only if the Knicks had Brunson. Without him, the math changes entirely. The Knicks’ offensive efficiency drops significantly without their primary ball-handler, and the Timberwolves have the defensive length to make Bridges and Towns work for every shot.
Once you dig into the matchup data, the Timberwolves hold the advantage in almost every area that matters. Edwards can attack Towns off the dribble and get to the rim. Randle can exploit New York’s thin frontcourt depth with his size and playmaking. And Minnesota’s perimeter defenders — even without McDaniels if he’s out — can chase Bridges off his spots and force the Knicks into contested looks.
When you do the math over 96 possessions, the Knicks need near-perfect shooting nights from Bridges and Towns to stay within 7 points. That’s asking a lot from a team that’s 5-6 on the road and now missing three rotation players. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, just need to play their game — control tempo, defend the three-point line, and let Edwards and Randle cook in the halfcourt.
I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there for the Knicks. Minnesota should win this game by double digits if they execute, and even if New York keeps it closer than expected, 7 points feels like the right number to lay.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Minnesota Timberwolves -7.0 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m laying the 7 with Minnesota at home. The Knicks are a tough team, but they’re not built to win on the road without Jalen Brunson. Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges are excellent players, but they’re not primary creators, and the Timberwolves have the defensive versatility to make life miserable for New York’s depleted backcourt.
Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle give Minnesota two elite scoring options, and Randle’s familiarity with the Knicks’ defensive schemes is a legitimate edge. The Timberwolves are 11-5 at Target Center for a reason — they control pace, they defend at a high level, and they have the firepower to blow this game open in the third quarter.
The main risk here is that the Knicks’ defense keeps this game closer than expected and New York finds a way to hang around late. But I keep coming back to the offensive efficiency gap. Without Brunson, the Knicks are going to struggle to generate clean looks, and Minnesota has the depth and talent to pull away down the stretch. I’m confident in this number, and I’m backing the Timberwolves to cover 7 at home.
