De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle lead a surging Spurs team into a top-tier West clash. Bash delivers his free pick and explains why the Thunder’s road dominance is under threat.
The Setup: Thunder at Spurs
The Thunder are laying 5.5 on the road at Frost Bank Center, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Oklahoma City sits at 26-3 with the West’s best record, while San Antonio checks in at 21-7 as the conference’s second seed. That’s a 5-game gap in the standings, and the market is pricing OKC as the superior team even in a hostile environment.
Here’s the thing — this line exists in a specific context that changes everything. Chet Holmgren is out with a back issue. Aaron Wiggins won’t play due to an adductor problem. And Victor Wembanyama’s status remains questionable with a left calf injury. Strip away OKC’s defensive anchor and suddenly that 5.5-point cushion starts to feel stretched, especially against a Spurs team that’s won six of their last seven and just dropped 124 on Washington with De’Aaron Fox leading the charge.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why the matchup data suggests San Antonio has more than enough to keep this inside the number.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 23, 2025, 8:30 ET
Venue: Frost Bank Center
Spread: Thunder -5.5 (-110) / Spurs +5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Thunder -233 / Spurs +186
Total: 234.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market opened this at 5.5 because Oklahoma City has been the league’s most dominant team this season. That 26-3 record isn’t built on luck — it’s constructed on elite two-way execution. The Thunder are undefeated at home at 14-0 and have lost just twice on the road at 12-2. When you’re that consistent across all environments, you earn the right to be favored anywhere.
But this number also reflects San Antonio’s legitimacy. The Spurs aren’t some rebuilding squad getting inflated home lines. They’re 10-2 at Frost Bank Center and 21-7 overall, with Victor Wembanyama averaging 24.4 points and 12.3 rebounds while anchoring one of the league’s most improved defenses. Add in De’Aaron Fox at 22.4 points and 6.1 assists plus Stephon Castle’s playmaking at 7.2 assists per game, and you’ve got a team that can score in multiple ways.
The total sits at 234.5, which tells you the market expects both teams to push pace and generate efficient offense. That makes sense given the personnel, but once you dig into the matchup data and factor in Holmgren’s absence, the dynamics shift considerably. OKC loses its rim protection and interior presence, which changes how San Antonio can attack. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts.
Thunder Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the engine that makes everything work. He’s averaging 32.5 points, 6.5 assists, and 4.9 rebounds while shooting efficiently enough to keep defenses honest. In the recent win over Memphis, he dropped 31 on 11-of-20 shooting with eight assists, proving he can carry the offense even when the supporting cast is compromised.
Jalen Williams gives OKC a secondary creator at 18.2 points and 5.0 assists, and his versatility allows the Thunder to run multiple actions without telegraphing their intentions. But here’s where the depth concern becomes real: without Holmgren’s 18.7 points and 7.8 rebounds, Oklahoma City loses its most efficient interior scorer and its primary defensive anchor. Holmgren’s presence fundamentally alters how opponents attack the paint, and his absence forces OKC into smaller, more perimeter-oriented lineups.
The Thunder are still elite defensively, but they’re built around length and versatility rather than traditional size. When you remove Holmgren from that equation, San Antonio’s size advantage with Wembanyama becomes even more pronounced — assuming he plays. Even if Wemby sits, the Spurs have enough frontcourt depth to exploit OKC’s suddenly thin interior.
Spurs Breakdown: The Other Side
San Antonio’s resurgence this season starts with Victor Wembanyama’s development into a legitimate two-way force. At 24.4 points and 12.3 rebounds, he’s not just a defensive specialist anymore — he’s a go-to scorer who can punish mismatches and protect the rim on the other end. His questionable status for this game is the biggest variable, but the Spurs showed in Washington they can win without him if necessary.
De’Aaron Fox has been everything San Antonio hoped for when they acquired him. He’s averaging 22.4 points and 6.1 assists while providing the kind of downhill pressure that opens up everything else in the offense. In that Washington game, he dropped 27 with five triples, proving he can carry the scoring load when needed. Stephon Castle adds another dimension at 18.3 points and 7.2 assists, giving the Spurs multiple ball-handlers who can create advantages in transition and half-court sets.
The Spurs are 10-2 at home for a reason. They defend their home court, they execute in late-game situations, and they have enough talent to hang with anyone in the conference. Luke Kornet’s 20 points and 12 rebounds against Washington showed their depth, and that matters in a game where both teams might be dealing with rotation adjustments.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup comes down to interior presence and how each team adjusts to personnel limitations. If Wembanyama plays, San Antonio has a massive advantage in the paint with Holmgren out. Even if Wemby sits, the Spurs can still attack OKC’s suddenly vulnerable interior with size and physicality.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap: Oklahoma City built its 26-3 record on elite defense anchored by Holmgren’s rim protection. Without him, the Thunder have to scramble rotations and rely more heavily on perimeter containment. That plays directly into San Antonio’s strengths, as Fox and Castle can both get downhill and create paint touches that force help rotations.
On the offensive end, Gilgeous-Alexander will get his numbers regardless of the matchup. He’s too skilled and too efficient to be completely neutralized. But the question becomes whether OKC’s supporting cast can generate enough secondary scoring to build and maintain a 6-point cushion on the road. Jalen Williams is capable, but asking him to replace Holmgren’s production while also defending at a high level is a tall order.
The pace and possession battle favors San Antonio in this spot. The Spurs can push tempo with Fox and Castle, and they can also slow it down and work through Wembanyama in the half-court if he’s available. That versatility gives them multiple ways to attack, and it makes OKC’s defensive adjustments more difficult without their rim protector.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Spurs +5.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Oklahoma City is the better team on paper, but this line assumes a healthy Thunder rotation that simply doesn’t exist right now. Holmgren’s absence fundamentally changes how OKC defends and scores, and San Antonio has the personnel to exploit both gaps.
The main risk here is Wembanyama’s questionable status. If he sits, the Spurs lose their best player and their defensive anchor. But even in that scenario, I trust Fox and Castle to keep this competitive. San Antonio is 10-2 at home, they’re playing with confidence after winning six of seven, and they match up well against a compromised Thunder rotation.
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests. Give me the Spurs catching 5.5 at home with the confidence that they can either win outright or lose by a possession or two. That’s the value, and that’s where I’m putting my money.
