With Luka Doncic (34.1 PPG) sidelined, Bryan Bash breaks down how the Lakers’ offense must pivot as they travel to Phoenix to face the Suns tonight.
The Setup: Lakers at Suns
The Suns are laying 6 points (BetOnline) at home against the Lakers on Tuesday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Phoenix sits at 15-13 and has been solid at home with a 9-5 record, while the Lakers come in at 19-8 but are dealing with a significant personnel crisis. Here’s the thing — this isn’t just about the Lakers being short-handed. This is about LA playing without Luka Doncic, who’s averaging 34.1 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game. That’s not just a stat — that’s how this team’s entire offensive ecosystem functions.
Austin Reaves is also questionable with a calf issue, and Rui Hachimura is already out. When you strip away that kind of production and usage, you’re not just asking LeBron James to do more at this stage of his career — you’re fundamentally changing how the Lakers generate offense. The Suns aren’t world-beaters, but at 9-5 at home with Devin Booker averaging 25.6 points and Dillon Brooks adding 21.7, they’re more than capable of exploiting a depleted rotation. Let me walk you through why this line exists and why it might not be high enough.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 23, 2025, 9:00 ET
Location: Mortgage Matchup Center
Current Spread: Lakers +6.0 (-105) | Suns -6.0 (-115)
Moneyline: Lakers +195 | Suns -235
Total: Over/Under 226.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Suns -6 because it’s accounting for home court, the Lakers’ injuries, and Phoenix’s recent form. But once you dig into the matchup data, the efficiency gap becomes the story. The Lakers are 19-8, but that record was built with Doncic running the offense and Reaves providing secondary creation. Without them, you’re looking at a team that loses roughly 61.9 combined points per game from just two players — and that doesn’t even account for the playmaking vacuum.
LeBron James is still averaging 20.2 points and 7.1 assists, but he’s 40 years old and coming off a loss to the Clippers where the Lakers managed just 88 points. The Suns, meanwhile, just lost a competitive game to Golden State 119-116, showing they can score even in tough road spots. Devin Booker had 25.6 points per game on the season, and Dillon Brooks has been a legitimate second option at 21.7 per night. Grayson Allen is doubtful, but he’s averaging 16.3 points — losing him hurts, but it’s nowhere near the crater left by Doncic’s absence.
The total sitting at 226.5 tells you the market expects a relatively normal-paced game, but I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. The Lakers just scored 88 points against the Clippers without their primary creator. Even if they bounce back slightly, asking them to keep pace with a Suns team that can get buckets from multiple sources feels optimistic for LA backers.
Lakers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Lakers are 12-4 on the road, which is legitimately impressive, but those wins came with Luka Doncic orchestrating the offense. At 34.1 points and 8.8 assists per game, Doncic was the engine — not just for scoring, but for creating advantages that opened up looks for everyone else. Without him, the Lakers lose their primary pick-and-roll threat, their best isolation scorer, and their most reliable late-clock option.
LeBron is still LeBron, but at 20.2 points per game, he’s clearly in a different phase of his career. He can still control stretches, but asking him to carry a full offensive load for 35-plus minutes against a motivated home team is a tall order. If Austin Reaves sits, the Lakers lose another 27.8 points and 6.7 assists per game, which would leave them dangerously thin in terms of shot creation.
The Lakers scored 88 points in their last game against the Clippers, and that wasn’t an anomaly — it was what happens when you strip away this much offensive firepower. Even if they improve on that output, they’re going to struggle to generate efficient looks against a Suns defense that can load up on LeBron and force role players to beat them.
Suns Breakdown: The Other Side
Phoenix sits at 15-13, which isn’t spectacular, but their 9-5 home record shows they’re comfortable at Mortgage Matchup Center. Devin Booker remains their centerpiece at 25.6 points and 6.4 assists per game, and Dillon Brooks has emerged as a legitimate second scoring option at 21.7 points per night. That’s a 1-2 punch that can exploit a thin Lakers defense.
Grayson Allen is doubtful, and losing his 16.3 points per game does matter, but the Suns still have enough firepower to control this game. They just hung 116 points on Golden State in a road loss, showing they can score even in difficult environments. At home against a Lakers team missing its best player and possibly its second-best, the Suns should have cleaner looks and more control of the pace.
The main advantage here is matchup-based. The Suns don’t have to worry about Doncic breaking down their defense in pick-and-roll or creating mismatches. They can focus their defensive attention on LeBron, force the ball out of his hands, and dare the Lakers’ depth pieces to beat them. That’s a winning formula when you’re at home and the opponent is this compromised.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided on offensive creation and efficiency. The Lakers are missing 61.9 combined points per game from Doncic and potentially Reaves, and there’s no way to replace that production cleanly. LeBron can shoulder some of the load, but he’s not the same player who could carry an entire offense for 40 minutes. The Lakers scored 88 points in their last outing, and while that’s probably their floor, it shows how fragile this offense becomes without its primary creators.
The Suns, meanwhile, can lean on Booker and Brooks to generate efficient looks, especially at home where they’re 9-5. Phoenix doesn’t need to be spectacular — they just need to be solid and let the Lakers’ personnel issues do the heavy lifting. When you do the math over 96 possessions, the gap in shot creation and offensive efficiency tilts heavily toward the home team.
The total at 226.5 assumes both teams can score at a reasonable clip, but I’m skeptical the Lakers get there. Even if Phoenix doesn’t blow them out, the margin should be comfortable enough to cover 6 points. This matchup narrows the Lakers’ margin for error more than the line suggests, and once you account for the home court advantage and the sheer volume of missing production, Phoenix should control this game from start to finish.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Suns -6.0 (-115) | 2 Units
I’m laying the 6 with Phoenix at home. The Lakers are down their best player and possibly their second-best, and there’s no clean way to replace 61.9 combined points per game from Doncic and Reaves. LeBron is still capable, but asking him to carry this offense against a motivated Suns team at Mortgage Matchup Center is too much. Phoenix has the firepower with Booker and Brooks, and they’re 9-5 at home for a reason.
The main risk here is LeBron going supernova and willing the Lakers to a competitive game, but even if that happens, I trust Phoenix to pull away late. The Lakers scored 88 points in their last game, and while they’ll likely improve on that, they’re not built to keep pace with a Suns team that just put up 116 on the road. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there for LA. Give me the Suns to cover at home.
