The Nuggets are laying 7 points in Dallas, but without Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun, the margin for error is razor-thin. Bryan Bash explores whether Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray can overcome a compromised rotation.
The Setup: Nuggets at Mavericks
The Denver Nuggets are laying 7 points on the road in Dallas on December 23rd, and on the surface, this number makes sense. You’ve got a 21-7 powerhouse led by Nikola Jokic’s historic triple-double season traveling to face an 11-19 Mavericks squad that’s missing Kyrie Irving indefinitely and just lost Dereck Lively II to foot surgery. The market sees Denver’s 12-2 road record and Dallas sitting 11th in the West, and the logic writes itself.
Here’s the thing — once you dig into what Denver actually has available for this game and how Dallas has been constructed to survive without their stars, that 7-point margin starts to feel stretched. The Nuggets are without Aaron Gordon, who won’t return before Christmas according to the team. Christian Braun remains out with an ankle issue. That’s two rotation pieces that matter significantly when you’re trying to cover a full-possession spread on the road against a team that, despite their record, plays competitive basketball at home.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I’m not buying it at face value. This isn’t about Denver being bad — they’re elite. This is about margin, context, and what happens when you ask Jokic and Murray to do everything without the depth that typically makes Denver’s offense unstoppable.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 23, 2025, 8:00 ET
Venue: American Airlines Center
Spread: Nuggets -7.0 (-110) | Mavericks +7.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Nuggets -286 | Mavericks +222
Total: Over/Under 237.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is pricing Denver as a 7-point road favorite because of the talent gap at the top. Nikola Jokic is averaging 28.9 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 10.8 assists per game — that’s an MVP-caliber triple-double season that warps every possession. Jamal Murray is putting up 24.9 points and 6.6 assists, giving Denver two elite offensive engines. When you pair that with Denver’s 12-2 road record, the logic is simple: elite talent plus proven road performance equals comfortable favorite.
Dallas, meanwhile, sits at 11-19 and 11th in the Western Conference. Without Kyrie Irving, who remains out indefinitely with a knee issue, and now without Dereck Lively II after foot surgery, the Mavericks look like a team that should get steamrolled by a contender. Their 3-9 road record tells you they struggle away from home, but their 8-9 home record suggests something different — they’re competitive at American Airlines Center.
The 237.5 total reflects the market’s expectation that Denver’s offense, even shorthanded, will push pace and generate efficient looks. But here’s what the number doesn’t fully account for: Dallas has legitimate NBA players in Anthony Davis (21.0 PPG, 11.6 RPG), Cooper Flagg (18.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG), and P.J. Washington (15.7 PPG, 7.9 RPG). That’s not a skeleton crew — that’s a trio capable of keeping games within striking distance, especially at home.
Nuggets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Denver’s offensive identity runs entirely through Jokic, and with Gordon and Braun out, that dependency becomes even more pronounced. Jokic’s 10.8 assists per game show you how much he facilitates for others, but when those others are limited by injury, the margin for error shrinks. Murray is still elite, averaging 24.9 points, but asking him and Jokic to carry the offensive load without Gordon’s versatility creates predictability.
Gordon’s absence is massive for Denver’s defensive versatility. He’s the guy who switches onto wings and guards the pick-and-roll at multiple positions. Without him, Denver has to adjust their defensive rotations, and that matters against a Dallas team that can exploit mismatches with Davis in the post and Flagg creating off the dribble. Braun’s absence removes another perimeter defender and secondary ball-handler.
The Nuggets are 21-7 because of elite talent, but their depth is being tested right now. That 12-2 road record is impressive, but context matters — how many of those road wins came with a fully healthy rotation? When you’re laying 7 on the road without two key rotation pieces, you’re asking Jokic and Murray to be perfect for 48 minutes. That’s a tall order, even for them.
Mavericks Breakdown: The Other Side
Dallas is 11-19, but let’s be clear about what they actually are: a team that competes at home and has legitimate scoring threats. Anthony Davis averaging 21.0 points and 11.6 rebounds gives them an interior presence that can challenge Denver’s frontcourt depth. Cooper Flagg at 18.7 points and 6.3 rebounds provides secondary creation and versatility. P.J. Washington chips in 15.7 points and 7.9 rebounds, giving Dallas three players who can score in double figures consistently.
Their 8-9 home record tells you they’re not getting blown out at American Airlines Center. They’re competitive, they execute their sets, and they’ve found ways to hang with better teams. Max Christie is listed as day-to-day with an illness, but even if he’s out, Dallas has enough offensive firepower to stay within a possession or two.
The main advantage Dallas has in this matchup is that Denver can’t hide their depth issues. With Gordon out, Dallas can attack mismatches and force Denver’s remaining rotation players into uncomfortable defensive spots. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts toward a closer margin than 7 points suggests.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap and what it actually means over a full game. Denver is elite offensively because of Jokic’s playmaking and Murray’s scoring, but without Gordon and Braun, their offensive versatility is limited. They’ll still generate good looks, but the margin between good and great shrinks when you’re asking two players to do everything.
Defensively, this is where Dallas can exploit Denver’s shorthanded rotation. Davis can work in the post against Denver’s backup bigs, and Flagg can create off the dribble when Denver’s perimeter defense gets stretched. When you do the math over 96 possessions, those small advantages add up. Denver might win this game, but covering 7 points on the road without two rotation pieces requires dominance, not just competence.
The 237.5 total feels high given the context. Denver will push pace, but Dallas has enough defensive structure at home to slow things down in key stretches. If this game stays in the 230-235 range, that’s an environment where Dallas can hang around and make this a one-possession game late.
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests. Denver’s talent at the top is undeniable, but basketball is a team game, and when your depth is compromised on the road, asking for a 7-point cover becomes a much tougher proposition.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Mavericks +7.0 (-110) — 2 Units
I’ve accounted for the talent gap, the road record, and Denver’s elite offensive engines — and it still doesn’t get there. Seven points is too many to lay with a shorthanded Nuggets team on the road against a Mavericks squad that has legitimate NBA talent and competes at home. Dallas has three players averaging double figures, they’re 8-9 at American Airlines Center, and they’ve shown they can hang with better teams in their building.
The main risk here is that Jokic and Murray go nuclear and Denver wins by 15. That’s always possible when you have two players of that caliber. But the more likely scenario is that Denver wins a close game, maybe by 3-5 points, because their depth limitations get exposed over 48 minutes. Dallas will attack mismatches, Davis will work inside, and Flagg will create enough offense to keep this within a possession or two late.
Give me the Mavericks plus the points at home. Denver might win, but they’re not covering 7 without the depth to dominate for a full game.
