The 22-7 Spurs head to Oklahoma City looking for their third win over the Thunder in just two weeks. Bryan Bash breaks down why the +9 spread is an overcorrection for the 26-4 Thunder, who have struggled to find an answer for Victor Wembanyama’s interior presence.
The Setup: Spurs at Thunder
The Thunder are laying 9 points at home on Christmas Day, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Oklahoma City sits at 26-4 overall with a perfect 14-0 home record at Paycom Center. They’re the top team in the Western Conference, and they’ve got Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing at an MVP level with 32.5 points per game. The market respects that dominance, especially at home.
Here’s the thing — San Antonio just beat this same Thunder team 130-110 eleven days ago, and they did it again on Tuesday night with the exact same score. That’s not a fluke. That’s a 20-point beatdown that happened twice in less than two weeks. The Spurs are 22-7, riding a seven-game winning streak, and they’re the second-best team in the West for a reason. Victor Wembanyama is averaging 23.7 points and 11.8 rebounds, and this team has found an identity that travels.
So while I understand why OKC is favored by 9 at home, once you dig into the matchup data and what just happened between these teams, that margin starts to feel stretched. Let me walk you through why this line exists — and why it might not hold.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 25, 2025, 2:30 ET
Venue: Paycom Center
Spread: Thunder -9.0 (-110) / Spurs +9.0 (-110)
Total: 233.5 (Over/Under -110)
Moneyline: Thunder -360 / Spurs +280
Why This Line Exists
The 9-point spread is built on Oklahoma City’s home dominance and their overall record superiority. When you’re 14-0 at home and 26-4 overall, the market is going to give you significant respect, especially against a team you theoretically should beat. The Thunder have been one of the most efficient teams in basketball this season, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 32.5 points per game makes them dangerous every single night.
The total at 233.5 reflects what happened in those recent meetings — both games cleared 230 combined points, with San Antonio putting up 130 in each contest. The market expects pace and scoring, which makes sense given how both teams have been playing. This isn’t a grinding defensive battle; this is two teams that can score in transition and in the halfcourt.
But here’s what the line doesn’t fully account for: San Antonio’s recent form and their specific success against this Oklahoma City team. The Spurs aren’t just winning — they’re winning by 20 points against the best team in the conference. They’re 10-5 on the road, which isn’t elite, but it’s solid enough to compete in this environment. And they’ve got multiple players who can hurt you: Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox at 21.6 points per game, and Stephon Castle at 18.6 points with 7.0 assists.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap — or lack thereof. If San Antonio can score 130 twice against this Thunder defense, that’s not just a stat. That’s how this game tilts. The market is asking OKC to win by double digits at home when they couldn’t keep San Antonio under 130 in either recent meeting. That’s a big ask.
San Antonio Spurs Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Spurs are 22-7 with a 10-5 road record, and they’re coming off their seventh straight win. This isn’t the rebuilding San Antonio team we’ve seen in recent years — this is a legitimate playoff contender with multiple scoring options and a defensive anchor in Wembanyama.
Wembanyama’s 23.7 points and 11.8 rebounds per game give San Antonio a matchup advantage that few teams can replicate. He’s not just a rim protector; he’s a legitimate offensive weapon who can score inside and out. When you pair him with De’Aaron Fox’s 21.6 points and Stephon Castle’s playmaking (7.0 assists per game), you’ve got a balanced attack that can exploit multiple defensive weaknesses.
The key for San Antonio is their ability to score in transition and generate quality looks in the halfcourt. They put up 130 points twice against Oklahoma City, which means they’re not intimidated by this environment or this opponent. They’re 11-2 at home and 10-5 on the road, which shows they can win in different contexts. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, especially when you consider how well they’ve defended Shai and limited OKC’s secondary options in those recent games.
Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown: The Other Side
Oklahoma City is 26-4 overall and 14-0 at home, which is the foundation of this 9-point spread. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having an MVP-caliber season at 32.5 points per game, and he’s got legitimate help from Chet Holmgren (18.2 points, 7.6 rebounds) and Jalen Williams (18.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists).
The Thunder’s home dominance is real — 14 straight wins at Paycom Center is no accident. They defend at a high level, they push pace when they want to, and they’ve got the star power to close games. Shai is one of the best isolation scorers in the league, and when he gets downhill, he’s nearly impossible to stop.
But here’s the concern: Oklahoma City is dealing with some depth issues. Ousmane Dieng, Jaylin Williams, and Ajay Mitchell are all out for this game. That’s three rotation players who won’t be available, which matters when you’re trying to cover a 9-point spread on a short holiday turnaround. The Thunder are also coming off back-to-back losses to San Antonio where they gave up 130 points in each game. That’s not a defensive identity issue — that’s a specific matchup problem with how San Antonio attacks.
The main risk here is that OKC’s home dominance and Shai’s brilliance aren’t enough to overcome what San Antonio has shown they can do in this matchup. The Thunder need to win by double digits, and they couldn’t even win by single digits in either recent meeting.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in two places: Wembanyama’s ability to control the paint on both ends, and San Antonio’s ability to limit Shai without giving up open looks to OKC’s secondary scorers.
In those recent meetings, San Antonio scored 130 points in each game. That’s not a pace accident — that’s San Antonio generating quality looks against an Oklahoma City defense that couldn’t adjust. Wembanyama’s size and skill create mismatches that the Thunder can’t solve with Chet Holmgren alone. When you add Fox’s ability to attack the rim and Castle’s playmaking, San Antonio has multiple ways to score.
On the defensive end, the Spurs held Oklahoma City to 110 points in both recent games. That’s a 20-point differential in each contest, which tells you everything you need to know about how this matchup actually plays out. The Thunder couldn’t generate enough offense to keep pace, and they couldn’t stop San Antonio’s multifaceted attack.
The total at 233.5 feels about right given those recent results, but the spread at 9 assumes Oklahoma City can flip the script at home. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. San Antonio has proven they can score against this defense, and they’ve proven they can slow down Shai and force others to beat them. When you do that math over 96 possessions, the Thunder need to find 9 extra points of value, and I don’t see where that comes from with three rotation players out and the same matchup issues that plagued them twice already.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Spurs +9 (-110) — 2 Units
I’m backing San Antonio to cover the 9-point spread, and I’m comfortable laying 2 units on it. The Spurs have beaten this Thunder team by 20 points twice in the last two weeks, and nothing about this matchup suggests Oklahoma City suddenly solves those problems on Christmas Day. Yes, OKC is 14-0 at home, but San Antonio is 10-5 on the road and they’ve got the personnel to exploit the same matchup advantages that worked in those recent meetings.
Wembanyama gives them a defensive anchor and offensive weapon that the Thunder can’t match. Fox and Castle provide secondary scoring and playmaking that keeps the pressure on. And OKC is down three rotation players, which matters when you’re trying to cover a big number on a short turnaround.
The main risk here is Shai going nuclear and single-handedly dragging the Thunder to a double-digit win. He’s capable of it — 32.5 points per game doesn’t lie. But San Antonio has shown they can limit him and force others to beat them, and with Dieng, Williams, and Mitchell all out, that supporting cast is thinner than usual.
I keep coming back to those 130-110 final scores. That’s a 20-point gap that happened twice. The market is asking me to believe OKC wins by 9 when they just lost by 20 twice in a row. I’ll take the points and the team that’s proven they can win this matchup.
Spurs +9. Lock it in.
