Can Jalen Brunson and the Knicks overcome their road inconsistencies to cover a large number in the Big Easy? Bryan Bash breaks down the efficiency gap and provides his top ATS pick for Monday’s matchup.
The Setup: Knicks at Pelicans
The Knicks are laying 8.5 points on the road in New Orleans on Monday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. New York sits at 22-9 with a top-three seed in the East. The Pelicans are 8-25 and spiraling at 15th in the conference. But here’s the thing — New York is just 6-7 on the road this season compared to a dominant 15-2 at home. That split matters, and it’s exactly why this line isn’t sitting at double digits.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I’m still backing the Knicks to cover at Smoothie King Center. Jalen Brunson just dropped 34 points in Atlanta, and Karl-Anthony Towns added a season-high 36 with 16 boards in that same game. This is a team that’s clicking offensively, even away from Madison Square Garden. Meanwhile, New Orleans is 6-14 at home and just got swept in a back-to-back by Phoenix. The efficiency gap here is real, and once you dig into the matchup data, 8.5 points starts to look manageable.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 29, 2025, 8:00 ET
Venue: Smoothie King Center
Spread: Knicks -8.5 (-110) / Pelicans +8.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Knicks -370 / Pelicans +281
Total: 244.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on 8.5 because of that road/home split I mentioned. The Knicks are a completely different team at home versus on the road — 15-2 at MSG, but just 6-7 away from it. That’s a massive variance, and oddsmakers are accounting for New York’s inability to consistently dominate in hostile environments. If this game were in New York, we’d be looking at Knicks -12 or higher without question.
But the Pelicans’ struggles at home are equally telling. At 6-14 in their own building, New Orleans hasn’t exactly protected the Smoothie King Center this season. They just lost back-to-back games to Phoenix, including Saturday night’s 123-114 defeat where they couldn’t slow down a Suns team that had seven players in double figures. When you’re 15th in the conference and missing both Herbert Jones and Dejounte Murray, you’re not built to hang with elite teams, even at home.
The total sitting at 244.0 also tells you something about expected pace and efficiency. This isn’t a slugfest projection — the market expects both teams to push tempo and generate scoring opportunities. That favors the team with better offensive firepower, and that’s clearly New York with Brunson averaging 29.5 points per game and Towns at 22.3 with nearly 12 boards.
Knicks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
New York’s offense runs through two elite players, and both are playing at a high level right now. Brunson’s 29.5 points per game with 6.4 assists makes him one of the most efficient lead guards in the league, and his 34-point performance in Atlanta showed he’s not slowing down. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 22.3 points and 11.9 rebounds, and that 36-point, 16-rebound explosion against the Hawks was his best game of the season.
Mikal Bridges adds another dimension at 16.7 points per game with 4.2 assists, giving the Knicks a third scoring option who can also defend multiple positions. That’s crucial in a game like this where New Orleans will try to lean on Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III for offense. The Knicks have the depth to match up across the board, even with Miles McBride questionable and Mitchell Robinson out for ankle management.
The main concern is that road record. When you’re 6-7 away from home, it means you’re not consistently executing in unfamiliar environments. But I keep coming back to this efficiency gap — New York has the personnel to score in the halfcourt and in transition, and they’re facing a Pelicans defense that just allowed 123 points to Phoenix.
Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
New Orleans is dealing with significant rotation issues. Herbert Jones is out, and he’s one of their best perimeter defenders. Dejounte Murray remains sidelined with an Achilles injury, and while there’s optimism he could return after New Year’s, he won’t be available for this game. That leaves the Pelicans relying heavily on Zion Williamson (21.7 PPG), Trey Murphy III (20.6 PPG), and Jordan Poole (16.0 PPG) to carry the offensive load.
Williamson is talented enough to dominate stretches, but at 8-25, this team hasn’t shown the ability to sustain winning basketball over four quarters. The 6-14 home record is particularly damning — you’d expect a team to at least defend their home court better than that, even in a rebuilding year. When you’re 2-11 on the road and barely above .500 at home, you’re not built to compete with a 22-9 team that ranks second in the Eastern Conference.
The Pelicans just got swept by Phoenix in a back-to-back, losing 123-114 on Saturday night. That’s a team that couldn’t slow down Devin Booker and seven other Suns players who hit double figures. If you can’t tighten up defensively against Phoenix, how are you going to contain Brunson, Towns, and Bridges?
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
Here’s where the numbers start to tilt heavily toward New York. The Knicks have two legitimate offensive weapons in Brunson and Towns who can score at all three levels. The Pelicans don’t have the defensive personnel to slow both of them down, especially with Herbert Jones out. Zion can get his points, but he’s not going to outscore a two-headed monster that just combined for 70 points in Atlanta.
When you do the math over 95-100 possessions, which is what a 244-point total suggests, the efficiency gap becomes clear. New York has the better offensive balance, the better depth, and the better coaching. The Pelicans are going to have to rely on Murphy and Poole to hit contested shots while also hoping Zion stays aggressive without getting into foul trouble. That’s a lot of variables that need to break right for New Orleans to keep this within single digits.
The pace should favor New York as well. Even though the Knicks are road-challenged this season, they’ve shown they can win away from home when they control tempo and limit turnovers. The Pelicans want to push in transition, but if the Knicks can get back defensively and force New Orleans into halfcourt sets, the talent gap becomes even more pronounced.
That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. New York has the personnel to dictate terms on both ends, and New Orleans doesn’t have the defensive infrastructure to make this a grind-it-out affair. The Knicks should be able to get quality looks throughout the game, and once they build a lead, the Pelicans don’t have the firepower to mount a sustained comeback.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Knicks -8.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’ve accounted for the road splits, and it still doesn’t get there for me. The Knicks are the better team by a significant margin, and they’re facing a Pelicans squad that’s 6-14 at home and missing key defensive pieces. Brunson and Towns are both playing at a high level right now, and New Orleans simply doesn’t have the personnel to slow them down over four quarters.
The main risk here is New York coming out flat after a physical win in Atlanta, but this is a professional team with playoff aspirations. They understand the importance of taking care of business against inferior competition, especially in the weak Western Conference. The Pelicans are going to fight and Zion will have his moments, but this matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests — in New York’s favor.
Give me the Knicks to win by double digits and cover the 8.5. This is a spot where talent and depth should prevail, even on the road.
