The Suns are heavy double-digit favorites, but Washington has won two straight and is playing its best defense of the season. Check out our expert prediction for Suns at Wizards as we analyze the battle in the paint.
The Setup: Suns at Wizards
The Suns are laying 10.5 points (Everygame) on the road against Washington on Monday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Phoenix sits at 18-13 and just swept a back-to-back in New Orleans behind Devin Booker’s clutch play. Washington, meanwhile, is 7-23 and struggling to find any consistency despite back-to-back wins heading into this one. Here’s the thing — this spread isn’t just about record differential. It’s about depth, efficiency, and how this matchup plays out when you factor in who’s available and who’s not.
Let me walk you through why this line exists. Phoenix has seven players averaging double figures, and even with Grayson Allen sidelined, they’ve got the rotation firepower to control pace and tempo against a Wizards squad that’s missing KyShawn George and Corey Kispert. Washington’s 4-10 at home, and while they’ve shown flashes with Alex Sarr’s emergence, this is a team that gets exploited when the opponent can go deep into the bench. The Suns are 8-8 on the road, which isn’t dominant, but in this spot — against a bottom-tier Eastern Conference team missing key rotation pieces — I keep coming back to the efficiency gap and how it compounds over 48 minutes.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 29, 2025, 7:00 ET
Venue: Capital One Arena
Spread: Phoenix Suns -10.5 (-110) | Washington Wizards +10.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Suns -600 | Wizards +410
Total: Over/Under 233.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market opened Phoenix at -10.5, and that number reflects a few critical realities. First, the Suns have the better roster top-to-bottom, even without Allen’s 16.3 points per game. Devin Booker is averaging 25.4 points and 6.5 assists, and Dillon Brooks has stepped up as a legitimate second scoring option at 21.4 points per game. That’s a one-two punch Washington simply can’t match, especially with George out of the lineup.
Second, this spread accounts for Washington’s home struggles. The Wizards are 4-10 at Capital One Arena, and while they just beat Memphis at home, that victory came against a Grizzlies team on the second night of a back-to-back. Phoenix is coming off a Saturday win in New Orleans, so they’re not dealing with the same scheduling disadvantage. The Suns have had a full day to prepare, and that matters when you’re trying to cover double digits on the road.
Third, the total sitting at 233.0 tells you the market expects a relatively fast-paced game with both teams capable of scoring. Washington’s offense has been inconsistent, but CJ McCollum (18.6 PPG) and Alex Sarr (18.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG) can get buckets in transition. Phoenix, meanwhile, has the weapons to push tempo and exploit defensive breakdowns. Once you dig into the matchup data, this line isn’t about Phoenix being unbeatable on the road — it’s about Washington’s inability to slow down a team with this much offensive depth.
Suns Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Phoenix’s strength is their balanced scoring attack. With Booker leading the way at 25.4 points per game and Brooks contributing 21.4, the Suns don’t rely on one guy to carry the offensive load. That’s critical in a game like this, where Washington will likely try to load up on Booker and force someone else to beat them. The problem for the Wizards is that Phoenix has multiple someones who can do exactly that.
The loss of Grayson Allen hurts — he’s been efficient at 16.3 points per game — but the Suns showed in New Orleans that they can win with depth. Seven players scored in double figures against the Pelicans, and that kind of distribution is tough to defend when you’re already dealing with rotation limitations. Ryan Dunn is questionable, but his absence wouldn’t significantly alter Phoenix’s game plan.
The concern here is Phoenix’s road performance. They’re 8-8 away from home, which suggests they’re not dominant in hostile environments. But context matters. Washington isn’t a hostile environment right now — they’re 7-23 and playing in front of a fan base that’s seen very little to cheer about. This isn’t a tough road spot; it’s a get-right game for a Suns team that needs to stack wins in the Western Conference playoff race.
Wizards Breakdown: The Other Side
Washington’s offense runs through CJ McCollum and Alex Sarr, and both have been solid this season. McCollum’s averaging 18.6 points and 3.6 assists, while Sarr has emerged as a legitimate two-way threat at 18.2 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 2.9 assists. Sarr’s six-block performance against Memphis showed his defensive upside, and he’ll need to replicate that kind of impact to keep this game competitive.
The problem is depth. With KyShawn George (15.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 5.1 APG) and Corey Kispert both out, Washington loses two rotation players who contribute on both ends. George’s playmaking and Kispert’s shooting are tough to replace, and it forces Washington to lean even harder on McCollum and Sarr. That’s not a sustainable formula against a team like Phoenix that can throw multiple defenders at you and wear you down over four quarters.
Washington’s home record is brutal — 4-10 at Capital One Arena — and while they’ve won two straight, both victories came in favorable spots. Memphis was on a back-to-back, and the win before that was against a similarly struggling team. This is a step up in class, and the Wizards don’t have the personnel to match Phoenix’s firepower for 48 minutes.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests if Washington can control pace and limit transition opportunities. The Wizards need to slow this game down, grind possessions, and force Phoenix into half-court sets where Sarr can protect the rim and McCollum can create offense. The issue is that Phoenix has the depth to sustain pressure even in a slower game. Brooks, Booker, and the supporting cast can execute in the half-court, and Washington’s perimeter defense isn’t strong enough to consistently get stops.
On the other end, Phoenix’s defensive versatility gives them an edge. They can switch across multiple positions, and that makes it difficult for Washington to generate clean looks. McCollum will get his, but if the Suns can limit Sarr’s touches and force the Wizards’ role players to beat them, this game tilts heavily in Phoenix’s favor.
When you do the math over 95-100 possessions, the efficiency gap becomes the story. Phoenix has more scoring options, better depth, and the ability to exploit Washington’s injuries. The Wizards can hang for a half, maybe even three quarters, but over the course of a full game, the Suns have too many ways to score and too many bodies to throw at Washington’s limited offensive threats. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m backing Phoenix -10.5 for 2 units. This line exists because the Suns are the better team with the better depth, and Washington’s injuries create a matchup problem they can’t solve. The main risk here is Phoenix’s road inconsistency — they’re 8-8 away from home, and there’s always the chance they come out flat against a struggling opponent. But I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there for Washington.
The Wizards are 4-10 at Capital One Arena, and while they’ve won two straight, this is a different level of competition. Phoenix has the firepower to control this game from the opening tip, and with Washington missing George and Kispert, the Suns can exploit depth and rotation advantages all night long. Lay the points. Phoenix covers.
