Butler enters Omaha with a high-octane offense, but Creighton’s deliberate tempo has historically stifled fast-breaking opponents at CHI Health Center. Bash breaks down the point spread and why the adjusted efficiency gap suggests a clear edge for the home favorite.
The Setup: Butler at Creighton
Creighton’s laying 5.5 points at home against Butler on Monday night, and I’m already seeing folks talk themselves into the Bulldogs as a live dog. Look, I get the appeal – Butler’s 7-2 with an offense that’s been lighting it up at 87.6 points per game. But here’s the thing: when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line isn’t just fair – it might be a gift for Creighton backers.
Let me walk you through why this Big East matchup is setting up as a classic pace-control game where the home team dictates terms. Butler wants to run at 72.9 possessions per game (46th nationally), while Creighton grinds at 67.3 (227th). That five-possession gap is absolutely massive in college basketball, and when the Bluejays can force this into a halfcourt slugfest at CHI Health Center Omaha, Butler’s offensive firepower becomes far less threatening.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Butler Bulldogs (7-2) @ Creighton Bluejays (5-4)
Date: December 30, 2025
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: CHI Health Center Omaha, Omaha, NE
Type: Big East Conference Game
Betting Lines (DraftKings):
Spread: Creighton -5.5
Total: 153.5
Moneyline: Creighton -192, Butler +160
Why This Number Makes Sense
The adjusted efficiency gap tells you everything you need to know about why Creighton’s favored despite the underwhelming 5-4 record. Butler checks in at 117.0 adjusted offensive efficiency (43rd nationally) and 102.2 adjusted defensive efficiency (66th). That’s a net rating of 14.8, good for 42nd in the country according to collegebasketballdata.com.
Creighton? They’re at 111.3 offensive (111th) and 105.1 defensive (117th) for a net of just 6.2 (109th overall). On paper, Butler looks significantly better. But here’s what those numbers don’t capture: Creighton’s home court advantage and their ability to control tempo in Omaha.
That’s not just a pace differential – it’s why Creighton can neutralize Butler’s superior efficiency. When you force a team that thrives at 72.9 possessions to play at 67.3, you’re talking about roughly 5-6 fewer possessions for Butler’s offense to operate. Do that math over a full game with Butler’s 120.3 offensive rating, and you’re looking at potentially 10-12 fewer points just from pace control alone.
The other critical factor: Butler’s defense has been solid at 98.9 (74th), but Creighton’s recent form suggests they’re figuring things out offensively. That 98-57 demolition at Xavier and the 84-63 win over Marquette show a team that’s clicking, even if the overall numbers don’t reflect it yet.
Butler’s Situation
The Bulldogs are absolutely rolling offensively, and the numbers back it up. That 49.6% field goal percentage ranks 43rd nationally, and they’re bombing threes at 39.4% (21st). Michael Ajayi is the story here – 16.2 points and 11.6 rebounds per game (4th nationally in boards). That’s an absolute monster on the glass.
Finley Bizjack leads the scoring at 18.0 per game, and Butler’s effective field goal percentage of 56.5% (55th) shows they’re not just taking good shots – they’re making them. The 362 points in the paint demonstrate they can score inside-out.
But here’s the concern: that 65.6% free throw percentage ranks 322nd nationally. That’s abysmal for a top-50 team, and in a close game at Creighton, those missed freebies could be devastating. The other red flag is their recent schedule – they just played a war with Providence (113-110 win) and got handled by UConn (60-79). This is a team that’s been in high-possession shootouts, and Creighton won’t give them that environment.
The turnover numbers are also concerning. Butler’s at 12.7 per game (220th), which isn’t terrible, but it’s not great either. Against a Creighton team that’s going to make you execute in the halfcourt, those extra possessions matter.
Creighton’s Situation
The 5-4 record is misleading for Creighton. They’ve lost to Kansas State (76-83) and Nebraska (50-71), but both were competitive games against quality opponents until that Nebraska disaster. What matters more is how they’ve looked in their wins – dominant performances against Marquette and Xavier show a team that’s dangerous at home.
Josh Dix leads at 11.7 points per game, but this is a balanced attack with five guys averaging between 9-12 points. That 16.1 assists per game (95th) shows they’re moving the ball and finding open looks. The problem has been finishing – that 31.9% three-point shooting (245th) is brutal.
But here’s why I’m not worried about Creighton’s shooting woes: Butler’s three-point defense allows 31.1% (113th), which is actually worse than Creighton’s season average. If there’s a game for the Bluejays to find their stroke, it’s this one.
The defensive numbers aren’t spectacular – 106.3 defensive rating (187th) and 44.1% opponent field goal percentage (213th). But at home, in their building, with their pace, Creighton can make teams uncomfortable. That 67.3 pace isn’t sexy, but it’s effective when you’re trying to shorten the game and limit possessions.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on the rebounding battle and pace control. Butler ranks 20th nationally in rebounds per game at 42.7, while Creighton sits at 169th with just 37.2. That’s a five-rebound differential that could give Butler extra possessions.
But here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Butler’s offensive rebounding percentage is 33.1% (114th), while Creighton’s defensive rebounding should be able to limit second-chance opportunities. More importantly, when Creighton controls the defensive glass, they can slow the pace and prevent Butler from getting into transition. Butler has 148 fast break points this season – Creighton needs to eliminate those easy opportunities.
The three-point battle is fascinating. Butler shoots 39.4% (21st) while Creighton allows 32.5% (169th). That’s a significant advantage for the Bulldogs. But flip it around: Creighton shoots 31.9% while Butler allows 31.1% (113th). Neither team has a clear edge from deep, which means this becomes a halfcourt execution game.
I keep coming back to those pace numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Butler wants 72.9 possessions, Creighton wants 67.3. In Omaha, with the home crowd and Creighton’s deliberate offensive sets, I’m betting on the Bluejays getting their preferred tempo. That’s a 15-point swing right there when you factor in Butler’s offensive efficiency.
The other X-factor: Butler’s 65.6% free throw shooting. If this game is close down the stretch, can they actually close? That’s 322nd in the nation – absolutely unacceptable for a team with tournament aspirations.
My Play
The Pick: Creighton -5.5 (-110) for 2 units
I’ve considered Butler’s superior efficiency numbers and Ajayi’s dominance on the glass, and the pace advantage for Creighton at home is still too massive to ignore. This game gets played in the mid-60s possession-wise, which completely neutralizes Butler’s offensive firepower. The Bluejays have shown they can dominate at home with recent wins over quality Big East opponents, and Butler’s coming off an emotional overtime win against Providence.
The main risk here is if Butler gets hot from three and Ajayi goes nuclear on the offensive glass. But Creighton’s home court, their ability to control tempo, and Butler’s atrocious free throw shooting give me enough confidence to lay the 5.5.
Final Score Prediction: Creighton 76, Butler 68
This is a classic Big East grinder where the home team dictates terms and covers a short number. Give me the Bluejays laying the points in Omaha.
