The Cavaliers ring in the New Year at Rocket Arena, hosting a Phoenix Suns team riding a four-game winning streak. Bash breaks down the point spread and why Grayson Allen’s doubtful status (16.3 PPG) could be the tipping point for the Cleveland cover.
The Setup: Suns at Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are laying 5.5 points at Rocket Arena on New Year’s Eve afternoon, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Cleveland sits at 18-16 with an 11-8 home record, while Phoenix rolls in at 19-13 but just 9-8 on the road. The Suns are riding a four-game winning streak, but here’s the thing — they’re catching the Cavaliers in a spot where Cleveland’s top-end talent and home-court efficiency should dictate the tempo and margin.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I’m leaning toward the home side covering. Phoenix has been solid lately, winning five of their last six, but the efficiency gap between these teams when you account for location and available personnel tells a different story than the recent results suggest. Cleveland’s offensive firepower led by Donovan Mitchell averaging 29.5 points per game combined with Evan Mobley’s 18.3 points and 9.0 rebounds gives them a two-way versatility that Phoenix will struggle to match, especially with key rotation pieces potentially compromised.
The Suns are dealing with meaningful injury concerns. Grayson Allen is doubtful with a knee issue — that’s 16.3 points and 4.1 assists per game potentially missing from their rotation. Ryan Dunn remains questionable with a knee contusion. When you start pulling rotation depth off a road team facing a squad with Cleveland’s offensive balance, that 5.5-point cushion starts looking more justified than generous.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 31, 2025, 3:30 ET
Location: Rocket Arena
Spread: Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 (-110) | Phoenix Suns +5.5 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 235.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Cavaliers -245 | Suns +192
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Cleveland -5.5 because the Cavaliers possess a clear talent advantage at the top of their roster, and that advantage amplifies at home. Donovan Mitchell is averaging nearly 30 points per game this season, and when you pair that with Darius Garland’s 16.9 points and 6.9 assists, you’re looking at a backcourt that can control pace and dictate offensive efficiency against most opponents.
Phoenix counters with Devin Booker at 25.3 points and 6.4 assists, and Dillon Brooks has been excellent recently with 26 points in their last outing against Washington. But here’s where the line gets its teeth: the Suns’ depth takes a significant hit if Allen sits. That’s not just 16 points missing — it’s the secondary playmaking and floor spacing that allows Booker to operate with breathing room.
Cleveland’s 11-8 home record might not jump off the page, but context matters. They just put up 113 points in San Antonio with seven players scoring in double figures. Jarrett Allen dropped 27 and 10 in that game, showcasing the kind of interior presence that can punish Phoenix if their rotations get stretched. The Cavaliers have the offensive balance to attack multiple ways, and when you’re laying 5.5 at home, you need that kind of versatility to cover across 96 possessions.
The total sitting at 235.5 reflects both teams’ ability to score, but also suggests the market expects Cleveland to control tempo and efficiency. I keep coming back to this efficiency gap — Phoenix on the road without full depth against a Cleveland team that can score in layers. That’s how you get to a number that asks the Suns to keep it within a bucket and the foul, and I’m not convinced they have the firepower to do it consistently over four quarters.
Phoenix Suns Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Suns come in hot, winners of four straight and five of six. Booker remains their engine at 25.3 points per game, and Brooks has elevated his game to 21.5 points per contest this season. That one-two punch carried them to 115 points against Washington, with Brooks going for 26 and Collin Gillespie adding 25 in support.
But let’s talk about what happens when you remove pieces from this rotation. If Grayson Allen sits — and he’s listed as doubtful — Phoenix loses a critical floor spacer who’s hitting 16.3 points per game and providing 4.1 assists. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts when Cleveland can load up defensively on Booker without worrying about secondary creation.
Phoenix’s 9-8 road record tells you they’re capable away from home, but it also reveals they’re not dominant in hostile environments. They’re a seventh-seed team in the West for a reason — good enough to compete most nights, but lacking the depth and defensive consistency to impose their will against quality opponents when rotations get tested. Ryan Dunn’s questionable status only compounds the depth concerns, especially if Cleveland pushes pace and forces Phoenix to go deeper into their bench.
Cleveland Cavaliers Breakdown: The Other Side
Cleveland’s strength lies in their offensive balance and the two-way impact of their core rotation. Mitchell at 29.5 points per game gives them a closer and primary scorer who can carry offensive possessions late. Mobley provides 18.3 points and 9.0 rebounds with elite defensive versatility, and Garland’s 16.9 points and 6.9 assists keep the offense flowing when Mitchell draws attention.
The Cavaliers just demonstrated their depth in San Antonio, getting seven double-figure scorers in a 113-101 win. Jarrett Allen dominated inside with 27 and 10, Mobley added 16, and Garland facilitated with 15 points and 11 assists. That’s the kind of balanced attack that makes covering a 5.5-point spread achievable — you don’t need one guy to go nuclear, you just need contributions across the rotation.
Cleveland’s 11-8 home record might seem modest, but they’re facing a Phoenix team dealing with rotation questions on the second leg of a road trip. The Cavaliers are without Larry Nance Jr. and Max Strus, but those losses don’t compromise their top-seven rotation the way Allen’s absence would gut Phoenix’s depth. Sam Merrill is probable with hip soreness, giving them another shooter to space the floor around Mitchell and Garland.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
Once you dig into the matchup data, this game comes down to Cleveland’s ability to exploit Phoenix’s compromised depth and dictate pace through their backcourt. The Cavaliers can push tempo with Garland or slow it down and feed Mitchell in isolation. Phoenix doesn’t have the same flexibility, especially if Allen sits and they’re forced to lean heavily on Booker and Brooks without reliable secondary creation.
The key battleground is the perimeter. Mitchell and Garland against Booker and whoever fills Allen’s minutes if he’s out. Cleveland has the advantage in both talent and depth at that spot. When you do the math over 96 possessions, the Cavaliers should generate more efficient looks and force Phoenix into contested shots as the game wears on.
Interior presence matters here too. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley give Cleveland a size advantage that Phoenix will struggle to counter. Allen just went for 27 and 10 against San Antonio, and the Suns don’t have an answer for that kind of interior dominance when combined with Cleveland’s perimeter shooting. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests — except it narrows it in Cleveland’s favor, not Phoenix’s.
The main risk here is Phoenix’s recent form. Four straight wins and Booker playing at an elite level means they’re capable of keeping this close. But I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there when you factor in the likely absence of Allen and the toll of playing on the road in an afternoon game on New Year’s Eve.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m backing the Cavaliers to cover at home. Cleveland has the top-end talent with Mitchell averaging nearly 30 per game, the interior presence with Allen and Mobley, and the depth to withstand Phoenix’s best punch. The Suns are likely without Grayson Allen’s 16.3 points and 4.1 assists, and that loss compromises their ability to keep pace with Cleveland’s balanced attack over four quarters.
Here’s the thing — Phoenix has been great lately, but this is a road spot against a team that can score in multiple ways and control tempo. Cleveland just put seven guys in double figures in San Antonio, and they’re catching a Suns squad dealing with rotation questions. When you factor in location, depth, and the efficiency gap between these rosters at full strength, 5.5 points feels like the right side.
The main risk is Booker going supernova and willing Phoenix to a cover. He’s capable of 35-point nights, and if Brooks stays hot, the Suns can hang around. But I trust Cleveland’s balance and home-court advantage to dictate the margin. Lay the points with the Cavaliers and expect them to pull away in the second half when Phoenix’s depth gets exposed. This number exists for a reason — Cleveland’s better, and 5.5 points at home is the price you pay for that edge.
