The market is hammering Toronto now that Jokic is out, but is laying nearly eight points with the Raptors a New Year’s trap? Bash explains why the Nuggets +7.5 is the best bet of the night and provides a free pick based on Jamal Murray’s history of explosive performances when the lights are brightest.
The Setup: Nuggets at Raptors
The Nuggets are getting 6.5 points (BetOnline) at Scotiabank Arena on New Year’s Eve, and here’s the thing — this line tells you exactly what the market thinks about Denver without Nikola Jokic. On the surface, this number makes sense. The Raptors are 20-14 and sitting fourth in the East, while Denver comes in at 22-10 but just lost their MVP to a hyperextended left knee that’ll keep him out at least four weeks. Toronto’s coming off a gutsy comeback win over Orlando, rallying from 21 down to win by one. Denver’s coming off a 147-123 blowout loss in Miami where they watched Jokic limp off the court.
But let me walk you through why this line exists and why I’m not rushing to lay nearly a touchdown with Toronto. The Nuggets are 12-5 on the road this season — that’s a legitimate road profile, not fool’s gold. Jamal Murray is averaging 25.2 points and 7.0 assists, and while losing a 29.6/12.2/11.0 triple-double machine changes everything about your offense, Denver still has enough offensive firepower to stay within this number against a Raptors team that’s been inconsistent at home. Toronto’s 10-7 at Scotiabank Arena, which is solid but not dominant. When you factor in pace, rotation depth, and how this matchup actually plays out over 96 possessions, laying 6.5 with a team that needed a miracle comeback to beat a depleted Magic squad feels like a stretch.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 31, 2025, 7:30 ET
Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Spread: Denver Nuggets +6.5 (-110) | Toronto Raptors -6.5 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 226.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Nuggets +213 | Raptors -270
Why This Line Exists
The market opened Toronto as a 6.5-point favorite for one clear reason: Nikola Jokic isn’t playing. When you remove a player averaging 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists per game, you’re not just losing production — you’re fundamentally altering how an offense operates. Jokic is the engine that makes Denver’s entire system work. His passing creates easy looks, his rebounding starts transition opportunities, and his scoring efficiency keeps defenses honest. Without him, the Nuggets become a completely different team.
But here’s where the line gets interesting. The Raptors are getting Jakob Poeltl back eventually, but he’s out for this one with a back issue that’ll be re-evaluated in about a week. That matters because Toronto’s interior defense takes a hit without their starting center. Meanwhile, Aaron Gordon remains out with a hamstring injury, though there’s hope he could return during the back end of this seven-game road trip. For this game specifically, Denver’s down two of their top three players by season scoring average.
The total sitting at 226.5 reflects the market’s expectation that Denver’s offense takes a significant step back without Jokic’s playmaking. That’s a reasonable assumption. But I keep coming back to this: the Nuggets are third in the Western Conference at 22-10, and their 12-5 road record suggests they know how to win away from home even when things aren’t perfect. The line exists because of Jokic’s absence, but it might be overcompensating for a Denver team that’s still talented enough to keep this competitive.
Denver Nuggets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Let’s be clear about what Denver loses without Jokic — everything that makes them elite. The triple-double threat, the high-low action, the pace-setting from the center position. It’s massive. But Jamal Murray averaging 25.2 points and 7.0 assists means the Nuggets still have a legitimate offensive initiator. Murray’s going to have the ball in his hands significantly more, and while that changes Denver’s efficiency profile, it doesn’t make them incompetent.
The real question is whether Denver’s supporting cast can step up. With Aaron Gordon out alongside Jokic, the Nuggets are thin. Gordon’s 18.8 points and 5.9 rebounds per game represent another significant loss in terms of versatility and defensive matchup flexibility. Julian Strawther is listed as probable with an illness, but even if he plays, asking role players to fill the void left by two All-Star caliber talents is a tall order.
Denver’s 12-5 road record tells us they’ve been battle-tested away from home. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this team has survived tough environments all season. The concern here isn’t effort or competitiveness. It’s whether they have enough firepower to stay within a possession or two of Toronto over 48 minutes when their two best frontcourt players are watching from the bench.
Toronto Raptors Breakdown: The Other Side
The Raptors have three legitimate scoring options in Brandon Ingram (21.9 PPG), Scottie Barnes (19.1 PPG, 8.5 RPG), and RJ Barrett (18.9 PPG). That’s a balanced attack that should theoretically feast on a Denver team missing its defensive anchor. Barnes adding 5.1 assists per game gives Toronto another playmaker, and his 8.5 rebounds help on the glass when Poeltl’s out.
But here’s the thing — Toronto’s 10-7 home record isn’t exactly fortress-level dominance. They just needed a 21-point comeback to beat an Orlando team that’s been ravaged by injuries. Jamal Shea scored 19 in that one, Ingram added 17, and they barely escaped with a one-point win. That’s not the profile of a team ready to blow out a motivated Denver squad, even without Jokic.
The Raptors are fourth in the East at 20-14, which is respectable but not elite. Their 10-7 road record matches their home mark, suggesting they’re fairly consistent regardless of venue but not particularly dominant in either spot. Without Poeltl, their interior defense becomes more vulnerable, and that could matter if Denver decides to attack the paint more aggressively to compensate for Jokic’s absence.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
Once you dig into the matchup data, this game comes down to whether Toronto can impose their will early and build a cushion, or whether Denver’s experience and Murray’s shot-creation keep this within striking distance. The total at 226.5 suggests a moderate pace, which actually benefits Denver. If this game slows down and becomes more halfcourt-oriented, Murray’s ability to create in isolation becomes more valuable.
The Raptors’ advantage is obvious: they’re healthier and playing at home on a night when the building should be energized for New Year’s Eve. Ingram, Barnes, and Barrett should be able to generate quality looks against a Denver defense that’s scrambling to adjust rotations without Jokic and Gordon. But Toronto’s been inconsistent enough this season — especially at home — that assuming they’ll cover 6.5 feels optimistic.
When you do the math over 96 possessions, Denver needs to stay within about 6-7 points to cover. That’s roughly one possession per quarter. Murray’s 25.2 points per game gives them a legitimate closer, and if Denver can keep this game in the 105-115 range rather than letting it become a track meet, they’ve got a real shot to stay within the number. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests because Toronto’s home dominance isn’t overwhelming and Denver’s road competence is legitimate.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Denver Nuggets +6.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’ve accounted for Jokic’s absence — and it still doesn’t get there for me with Toronto laying 6.5. Yes, Denver’s compromised. Yes, losing an MVP-caliber player fundamentally changes everything. But the Nuggets are 12-5 on the road, Murray’s a legitimate 25-point scorer, and Toronto just scraped by a depleted Magic team at home. The Raptors are 10-7 at Scotiabank Arena, which is fine but not the kind of home dominance that makes me comfortable laying nearly a touchdown.
The main risk here is Denver’s depth getting exposed over 48 minutes. Without Jokic and Gordon, if Murray has an off night or gets into foul trouble, the Nuggets might not have enough offensive firepower to stay close. But I’m betting on Denver’s pride, their road experience, and the reality that 6.5 points is a lot to lay against a team that’s proven they can compete away from home all season. Toronto should win this game, but I’m taking the points with a motivated Denver squad that knows how to cover even when things aren’t perfect.
