The Atlanta Hawks fly into Scotiabank Arena tonight riding the high of a dominant road win, but they face a stern test against a top-tier Toronto Raptors squad. With Trae Young sidelined, the market has installed the Raptors as modest home favorites. Our expert analysis breaks down the point spread and why Toronto’s rotation depth makes them a primary ATS pick for this Saturday night Eastern Conference clash.
The Setup: Hawks at Raptors
The Raptors are laying 3.5 at home against a Hawks team that just rolled into Madison Square Garden and won comfortably, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Toronto sits at 20-15 and fourth in the East. Atlanta’s 17-19 and treading water at tenth. But here’s the thing — the Hawks are catching this line without Trae Young, who’s out with a quad injury, and that absence fundamentally changes how this game operates. Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I think the market’s actually being conservative here.
Atlanta just beat the Knicks 111-99 behind Jalen Johnson’s seventh triple-double of the season — 18 points, 11 assists, 10 rebounds. Nickeil Alexander-Walker dropped 23, Onyeka Okongwu added 22, and the Hawks looked competent without their primary creator. But competent against New York’s inconsistent defense is different than competent against a Raptors team that’s 10-8 at Scotiabank Arena and features three legitimate two-way players in their starting five. Toronto’s coming off a narrow loss to Denver without Jokic, which tells you they’re vulnerable at home but also competitive when they should be. The question isn’t whether Toronto should be favored — it’s whether 3.5 points captures the full gap between these rosters when Atlanta’s missing their primary ball-handler and Toronto’s rotation is deeper top to bottom.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 3, 2026, 7:30 ET
Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Current Spread: Toronto Raptors -3.5 (-110) | Atlanta Hawks +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Raptors -164 | Hawks +134
Total: 235.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market’s giving Toronto a field goal and the hook at home, and once you dig into the matchup data, that number feels like it’s accounting for Atlanta’s road competence — they’re 11-8 away from home — while discounting the Trae Young absence just enough to keep this line tight. But I keep coming back to this: Young averages 19.3 points and 8.9 assists per game. That’s not just scoring volume — that’s 28-30 points of offensive creation every night when you factor in his assist production. Jalen Johnson can facilitate, and he’s been excellent this season at 23.8 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 8.4 assists per game, but he’s not a primary pick-and-roll operator the way Young is.
Toronto’s sitting fourth in the East at 20-15 with a three-headed offensive attack: Brandon Ingram at 22.1 points per game, Scottie Barnes at 19.1, and RJ Barrett at 18.8. That’s three guys who can create their own looks and punish mismatches. The Raptors are also without Jakob Poeltl, who’s out with a back injury and won’t be re-evaluated for about a week, but they’ve shown they can survive without rim protection when their perimeter defense stays disciplined. The line exists at 3.5 because the market respects Atlanta’s road record and their recent win over New York, but it’s not fully pricing in how much harder it is for this Hawks offense to generate clean looks in the halfcourt without Young’s gravity and passing vision.
Hawks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Atlanta’s 17-19 record splits to 6-11 at home and 11-8 on the road, which is one of the more confusing profiles in the league this season. They play better away from State Farm Arena, and that road competence is real — but it’s been built largely on Trae Young’s ability to control pace and dictate matchups in pick-and-roll. Without him, the offensive load shifts to Jalen Johnson, who’s having a breakout year and just posted his seventh triple-double against the Knicks. Johnson’s averaging 23.8 points, 10.3 boards, and 8.4 assists, and he’s proven he can facilitate from the elbow and in transition.
The problem is efficiency in the halfcourt. Nickeil Alexander-Walker can score — he’s at 20.4 points per game on the season — but he’s more of a movement shooter and secondary creator than a guy who can run an offense for 35 minutes. Okongwu gives them interior presence, but without Young’s penetration, he’s not getting the same quality of looks around the rim. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. Atlanta can push pace and get out in transition, but against a Raptors team that defends the perimeter with length and can switch across multiple positions, the Hawks are going to have to execute in the halfcourt more than they want to. And that’s where the absence of Young becomes a real problem.
Raptors Breakdown: The Other Side
Toronto’s 20-15 and sitting comfortably in the playoff picture, and their 10-8 home record reflects a team that defends well at Scotiabank Arena and has enough offensive firepower to win games in multiple ways. Brandon Ingram leads the way at 22.1 points per game, and his mid-range game and ability to get to the rim give the Raptors a consistent halfcourt option. Scottie Barnes is averaging 19.1 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 5.3 assists, and his versatility on both ends makes him one of the tougher covers in the East. RJ Barrett adds 18.8 points per game, and his slashing ability puts pressure on the rim.
The Raptors are without Jakob Poeltl, who’s been their primary rim protector, but they’ve adjusted by playing smaller and switching more aggressively on the perimeter. Against a Hawks team that’s missing its primary pick-and-roll threat, that’s less of a liability than it would be against a Young-led offense. Toronto’s depth is the real advantage here — they can rotate fresh bodies and maintain defensive intensity without a significant drop-off. When you do that math over 96 possessions, the Raptors have more ways to generate efficient offense and more bodies to throw at Atlanta’s secondary creators. That margin matters, especially at home.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, but it narrows in Toronto’s favor. The Hawks are 11-8 on the road, but those wins have largely come with Trae Young orchestrating the offense and creating advantages in pick-and-roll. Without him, Atlanta’s forced to rely on Jalen Johnson’s playmaking and Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s scoring, and while both are capable, they’re not going to generate the same volume of clean looks against a Raptors defense that can switch and recover.
Toronto’s three-headed offensive attack gives them multiple ways to exploit Atlanta’s perimeter defense. Brandon Ingram can hunt mismatches in isolation, Scottie Barnes can operate from the post or the perimeter, and RJ Barrett can attack closeouts and get to the rim. The Raptors don’t need to be perfect — they just need to be more efficient than a Hawks team that’s missing its best creator. Over 96 possessions, that efficiency gap adds up. Atlanta can push pace and try to get out in transition, but Toronto’s disciplined enough to get back and force the Hawks into halfcourt sets where they’re less comfortable without Young.
The main risk here is Atlanta’s road competence and the possibility that Johnson has another triple-double performance where he controls the game with his passing and rebounding. But even if he plays well, the Raptors have more scoring options and more depth. That’s the difference between a 3.5-point win and a 6-8 point win. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there for Atlanta.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Toronto Raptors -3.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m laying the 3.5 with Toronto at home. The Hawks are without Trae Young, and while Jalen Johnson showed he can facilitate in the win over New York, the Raptors present a much tougher matchup with their depth and defensive versatility. Toronto’s three-headed attack of Ingram, Barnes, and Barrett gives them multiple ways to score, and Atlanta’s going to struggle to generate efficient offense in the halfcourt without Young’s pick-and-roll gravity. The main risk is Atlanta’s 11-8 road record and the possibility that they push pace and keep this game closer than it should be. But when you factor in Toronto’s home-court advantage, their rotation depth, and the Hawks’ diminished halfcourt efficiency without their primary creator, 3.5 points feels light. This game should be decided by 6-8, and I’m comfortable laying the short number with the better, deeper team at home.
