The Creighton Bluejays visit the Prudential Center as slim road underdogs for a Sunday matinee against the 9-1 Seton Hall Pirates. Our expert analysis examines if the Pirates’ #10 ranked defensive efficiency justifies a home ATS pick.
The Setup: Creighton at Seton Hall
Seton Hall is laying 2.5 to 3 points at home against Creighton in a Big East matchup that’s getting plenty of attention, and I can already hear the skepticism: How is a 9-1 team only favored by a field goal against a 5-4 squad? Here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line isn’t just justified, it’s actually generous to Creighton backers. The Pirates are a legitimate top-35 team nationally with an adjusted net efficiency ranking of #34, while Creighton sits at #109. That’s a massive gap, but the Bluejays have been surging with four straight wins and just took down Marquette and Xavier convincingly. This noon tip at the Prudential Center sets up as a classic pace clash, and I’m backing the home team to control this game from wire to wire.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Creighton (5-4) @ Seton Hall (9-1)
Date: January 4, 2026
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Venue: Prudential Center, Newark, NJ
Spread: Seton Hall -2.5 (DraftKings) / -3 (Bovada)
Total: 142.5
Moneyline: Seton Hall -155, Creighton +130
Why This Number Makes Sense
Let me walk you through the efficiency gap that makes Seton Hall the rightful favorite here. According to collegebasketballdata.com, the Pirates rank #10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at 95.6, while Creighton sits at #117 with a 105.1 mark. That’s not just a ten-point difference in some abstract metric – it’s why Seton Hall is surrendering just 61.9 points per game (#11 nationally) while Creighton is giving up 71.4 (#142).
Here’s where it gets even more compelling: Seton Hall’s defensive dominance shows up in the steal and block numbers. The Pirates are generating 10.7 steals per game (#12 nationally) and swatting 6.6 shots per contest (#4 in the country). Compare that to Creighton’s anemic 5.6 steals (#311) and 2.8 blocks (#273), and you’re looking at a team that simply can’t generate the same defensive chaos. The Bluejays allow opponents to shoot 44.1% from the field (#213), while Seton Hall locks teams down at 39.0% (#36).
The offensive side tells a similar story. Both teams have nearly identical adjusted offensive efficiency – Seton Hall at 111.8 (#99) and Creighton at 111.3 (#111) – but the Pirates execute their offense with far better ball security. Seton Hall turns it over just 10.1 times per game (#41) compared to Creighton’s 12.2 (#184). Do that math over 65-70 possessions, and you’re looking at an extra 4-6 possessions for Seton Hall to work with.
Creighton’s Situation
The Bluejays are riding high after four consecutive victories, including impressive road wins at Xavier (98-57) and a home dismantling of Marquette (84-63). That’s legitimate momentum, and their balanced scoring attack has five players averaging between 9.0 and 11.7 points per game. Josh Dix leads the way at 11.7 PPG, while Blake Harper provides 5.8 rebounds per game from the guard spot.
But here’s what concerns me about Creighton in this matchup: they’re playing at a pace of 67.3 possessions per game (#227), which is significantly faster than what Seton Hall wants to do. The Bluejays are also shooting just 31.9% from three-point range (#245 nationally), which is going to be a massive problem against a Seton Hall defense that can pack the paint with those elite shot-blocking numbers.
The defensive metrics are equally troubling. Creighton ranks #187 in defensive rating and simply doesn’t force turnovers or protect the rim at an elite level. Against a Seton Hall team that’s scoring 126.8 points per 100 possessions (#34 in offensive rating), those defensive limitations are going to get exposed in a half-court setting.
Seton Hall’s Situation
The Pirates have been one of college basketball’s biggest surprises this season, and their 9-1 record includes quality road wins at Kansas State and Providence, plus a neutral-court victory over Marquette. Their only loss came at home to Villanova, 64-56, in a game that actually reinforces my thesis here – they held Nova to 64 points in a rock fight.
AJ Staton-McCray leads the scoring at 13.9 PPG, but this is Adam Clark’s team. The guard is dishing out 5.4 assists per game (#50 nationally) and orchestrating an offense that ranks #34 in offensive rating despite playing at a glacial 60.1 possessions per game (#348). That’s elite efficiency in a slow-paced environment.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Seton Hall generates 215 points off turnovers this season compared to Creighton’s 99. The Pirates are creating havoc with those 10.7 steals per game, and Creighton’s ball security issues (12.2 turnovers per game) play directly into Seton Hall’s defensive identity. The Pirates also shoot 76.5% from the free throw line (#41), which means they’ll cash in when Creighton is forced to foul late.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on pace and possessions. Seton Hall wants to grind this into a 60-possession slugfest where every possession matters, and they have the defensive personnel to dictate that tempo. Creighton needs to push pace and get into the 70s to have a chance, but the Pirates’ defensive pressure is going to make that extremely difficult.
I keep coming back to those turnover numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Seton Hall forces chaos (10.7 steals per game) while Creighton coughs it up (12.2 turnovers per game). Over 65 possessions, that’s a recipe for 6-8 extra Seton Hall possessions, and at their offensive efficiency, that translates to 15-20 additional points. That’s not a 3-point game – that’s a double-digit margin.
The three-point shooting matchup also heavily favors the home team. Creighton is shooting just 31.9% from deep (#245) while Seton Hall is connecting at 34.1% (#164) and defending the three at a respectable 32.9% clip. When you can’t stretch the floor against a team that ranks #4 in blocks per game, you’re going to struggle to generate quality looks in the half-court.
The main risk here is if Creighton gets hot from three early and forces Seton Hall to play from behind, which would speed up the tempo and play into the Bluejays’ hands. But I’ve considered all of that, and the defensive gap is still too massive to ignore. Seton Hall’s #10 adjusted defensive efficiency against Creighton’s #187 defensive rating means the Pirates should control both ends of the floor.
My Play
The Pick: Seton Hall -2.5 (-110) for 2 units
I’m laying the short number with the Pirates at home. The efficiency gap is too significant, the defensive matchup favors Seton Hall in every conceivable way, and the home court advantage at the Prudential Center for a noon tip should provide an extra boost. Creighton’s hot streak is real, but they haven’t faced a defense this suffocating during their four-game winning streak.
I’m projecting Seton Hall 71, Creighton 64. The Pirates control tempo, force 14-15 Creighton turnovers, and convert those mistakes into easy baskets. Adam Clark orchestrates the half-court offense while Staton-McCray provides the scoring punch, and Seton Hall covers by a comfortable margin.
The risk is Creighton’s balanced attack catching fire simultaneously, but their shooting percentages suggest that’s unlikely. Take the home team and trust the defense.
