The Gonzaga Bulldogs host Loyola Marymount as heavy favorites in a Sunday night WCC clash. Bash breaks down whether the 32-point efficiency gap justifies a high-unit ATS pick on the nearly 24-point spread.
The Setup: Loyola Marymount at Gonzaga
Gonzaga’s laying 23.5 to 24 points at home against Loyola Marymount on Sunday night, and I can already hear the knee-jerk reaction: That’s way too many points in a conference game. Look, I get it. WCC matchups can get weird, and big spreads are always dangerous. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t just a talent mismatch – it’s a chasm that might actually make this number look small by the second half.
Here’s the thing – Gonzaga ranks 2nd nationally in adjusted net efficiency at +33.9, while Loyola Marymount sits at 154th with a +1.8 mark. That’s a 32.1-point gap in adjusted efficiency, which means when you normalize for strength of schedule and tempo, Gonzaga is operating in a completely different stratosphere. The Lions have played respectable defense this year, ranking 52nd in adjusted defensive efficiency at 101.3, but they’re about to face an offensive machine that ranks 13th nationally in adjusted offense at 122.4. Let me walk you through why this spread isn’t just justified – it might be a gift.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Loyola Marymount (7-3) @ Gonzaga (9-1)
Date: January 4, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: McCarthey Athletic Center, Spokane, WA
Type: WCC Conference Game
Betting Lines:
Spread: Gonzaga -23.5 to -24
Total: 154.5 to 155
Moneyline: Gonzaga -9000, LMU +2500
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap tells you everything you need to know about this matchup. Gonzaga’s offensive rating of 124.7 ranks 45th nationally, while their defensive rating of 87.5 sits 4th in the country. That’s elite two-way basketball. Loyola Marymount? They’re scoring at a 111.5 offensive rating (174th) and defending at 95.6 (40th). The Lions play good defense for a mid-major, but their offense is pedestrian at best.
Here’s why this line makes sense: Gonzaga scores 92.9 points per game (11th nationally) while allowing just 65.3 (30th). That’s a 27.6-point differential right there. LMU scores 79.7 per game (142nd) and allows 67.9 (74th) – a 11.8-point differential. The Zags are operating with a 15.8-point better differential than the Lions in raw scoring margin.
But tempo matters here. Gonzaga plays at a 74.6 pace (19th nationally), while LMU crawls at 68.7 possessions per game (170th). The Zags are going to push this game into the mid-70s in terms of possessions, which plays directly into their hands. Do that math over 74 possessions instead of 69, and you’re looking at an extra 5-6 possessions where Gonzaga’s massive efficiency advantage compounds.
The collegebasketballdata.com adjusted numbers confirm what the raw stats suggest: Gonzaga’s 122.4 adjusted offensive efficiency versus LMU’s 101.3 adjusted defensive efficiency creates a 21.1-point expected advantage on offense alone. Flip it around – LMU’s 103.2 adjusted offense against Gonzaga’s 88.5 adjusted defense (2nd nationally) – and the Lions are looking at maybe 75-80 points max if they’re lucky.
Loyola Marymount’s Situation
The Lions come in at 7-3, but let’s pump the brakes on that record. They just lost 78-76 at Washington State and dropped a game to Saint Mary’s 78-73. Their best wins? Pacific, Morgan State, and North Alabama. This isn’t a battle-tested squad.
What LMU does well is defend the three-point line – they hold opponents to 30.0% from deep (78th nationally) and 39.9% overall (59th). Guard Jan Vide runs the show with 6.0 assists per game (24th nationally), and Myron Amey Jr. provides secondary scoring at 14.9 points per game. But here’s the problem: this is a guard-heavy team that can’t rebound. Their offensive rebounding percentage of 28.3% ranks 285th nationally. Against Gonzaga’s 44.8 rebounds per game (5th in the country), the Lions are going to get one shot and done on most possessions.
The other glaring issue? Free throw shooting at 67.4% (285th). If this game gets close late – which I don’t think it will – LMU can’t be trusted at the line. Their 103.2 adjusted offensive efficiency (261st) tells you everything: this offense works against inferior competition but lacks the firepower to hang with elite teams.
Gonzaga’s Situation
The Zags are 9-1 with their only loss coming in a game that’s not listed here, and they’re rolling through opponents. Five straight wins, including a 99-93 shootout at San Diego and a dominant 96-56 demolition at Pepperdine. This team is hitting its stride at the perfect time.
What makes Gonzaga special is the balance. Braden Huff leads at 17.0 points per game, but Graham Ike is right there with 16.4 points and 8.1 rebounds per game (75th nationally). The Zags rank 6th nationally in assists per game at 20.4, meaning this isn’t hero ball – it’s systematic destruction through ball movement and execution. Their 52.2% field goal percentage ranks 13th nationally, and they’re getting 57.9% effective field goal percentage (29th).
The defense is where Gonzaga separates itself from good teams and becomes elite. That 88.5 adjusted defensive efficiency (2nd nationally) isn’t a fluke. They hold opponents to 37.1% shooting (10th) and 26.8% from three (17th). They force 10.6 turnovers per game while committing just 10.6 themselves, and their turnover ratio of 0.1 ranks 17th nationally. This is a disciplined, efficient machine on both ends.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on the rebounding battle and Gonzaga’s ability to control tempo. LMU wants to slow this down to the high-60s in possessions and turn it into a rock fight. Gonzaga wants to push it to the mid-70s and create transition opportunities off their defense.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Gonzaga’s rebounding dominance (44.8 per game, 5th nationally) against LMU’s inability to crash the offensive glass (285th in offensive rebounding percentage). The Zags are going to get second-chance points while LMU gets one-and-done possessions. That’s a 10-12 point swing right there over the course of 70+ possessions.
The three-point shooting matchup favors Gonzaga as well. LMU shoots 36.0% from deep (94th), but Gonzaga defends the three at 26.8% (17th). Meanwhile, Gonzaga shoots 35.6% from three (107th) against a LMU defense that allows 30.0% (78th). The Lions have the slight edge in three-point defense, but Gonzaga’s interior dominance with Ike and Huff means they don’t need to rely on the three.
I keep coming back to those adjusted efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. A 32.1-point gap in adjusted net efficiency is massive. In the last five head-to-head meetings, Gonzaga has won by an average of 28.6 points, including a 73-53 beatdown last year in Spokane and a 96-68 demolition in LA. The history supports what the numbers are screaming.
My Play
The Pick: Gonzaga -23.5 (3 units)
I’m laying the points with Gonzaga at home. The efficiency gap is too massive, the rebounding mismatch is too extreme, and the historical precedent is too clear. Gonzaga wins this game by 30+, and I’m projecting something like 95-67. The Zags will push tempo, dominate the glass, and turn this into a track meet by the second half.
The main risk here is if Gonzaga takes their foot off the gas in the second half with a big lead, but Mark Few has historically been willing to keep starters in to work on execution. LMU’s guard play with Vide and Amey can create some offense, but they can’t stop Gonzaga’s interior attack or match their rebounding.
I’ve considered the conference game angle and the big number, and the talent and efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. This is a Final Four contender against a mid-tier WCC squad. Give me the Zags to cover comfortably in front of their home crowd.
